October 27, 2010 - Cuomo Leads By 20 Points In New York Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillibrand Stuns Gop Challenger

Word format

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Republican Carl Paladino 55 - 35 percent in the governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 7 percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.

This compares to a 55 - 37 percent Cuomo lead in an October 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, Cuomo even wins the support of 19 percent of Republicans, along with 88 percent of Democrats. Independent voters tip slightly to the Democrat 44 - 41 percent. Cuomo leads 57 - 30 percent among women and 53 - 39 percent among men.

By a 55 - 33 percent margin, New York likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo, while Paladino's favorability is almost the exact opposite, a 57 - 29 percent negative.

New York's Democratic U.S. senators have commanding leads over Republican challengers:
  • U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi 57 - 34 percent;
  • Sen. Charles Schumer leads Jay Townsend 64 - 32 percent.
"That Republican wave that's said to be sweeping the country runs into a levee - a dam, a blockade, whatever figure of speech you like - at the New York border probably because of Carl Paladino's foot-in-mouth disease. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo can start measuring the Executive Mansion curtains. This race is all but over," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But remember that blow-out polls have a built-in correction factor. Some of the blow- outer's supporters figure it's all right to stay home on Election Day. Some of the blow-outee's supporters figure they'd better make sure to vote to keep the score down. Result: it's still a blow- out but the numbers tighten," Carroll added.

By a 54 - 24 percent margin, New York State likely voters have a favorable opinion of Gillibrand. DioGuardi gets a 30 - 16 percent favorability, with 50 percent who do not know enough about him to form an opinion.

She leads 60 - 29 percent among women and 55 - 38 percent among men and even picks up 16 percent of Republican voters, along with 87 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of independent voters.

Schumer gets a 63 - 30 percent favorability, compared to 23 - 15 percent for Townsend, with 59 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.

"Sen. Charles Schumer might be focusing more on the Nevada results on election night. He looks to be an easy winner at home in New York. And if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid loses, Schumer could be in line to lead Senate Democrats," Carroll said.

"Everything's coming up roses for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. She's emerged from a position of relative obscurity to take a 23-point lead with less than a week to go. And New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who was with her at a fancy gala last week, says she's 'stunning.' If you don't believe that, ask the Democratic and Republican would-be challengers who have been stunned by her in the last year."

From October 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 672 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                55%    19%    88%    44%    53%    57%
Paladino             35     73      7     41     39     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      4      2      7      5      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      4      8      3     10
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 07  Sep 22
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Cuomo                55      55      49
Paladino             35      37      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       6       7
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    AC     CP
 
Made up              88%    91%    84%
Might change         11      8     16
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            55%    27%    82%    43%    51%    59%
Unfavorable          33     64      9     43     38     29
Hvn't hrd enough     11      9      7     13     11     10
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 07  Sep 22
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            55      53      51
Unfavorable          33      34      34
Hvn't hrd enough     11      10      13
REFUSED               1       3       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            29%    61%     7%    30%    32%    25%
Unfavorable          57     22     86     47     57     56
Hvn't hrd enough     13     16      6     20     10     17
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     Oct 27  Oct 07 Sep 22
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            29      33      36
Unfavorable          57      49      31
Hvn't hrd enough     13      15      31
REFUSED               1       3       2
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Gillibrand           57%    16%    87%    56%    55%    60%
DioGuardi            34     76      8     36     38     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      6      4      7      6      9
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Gillibrand           57      55      48
DioGuardi            34      34      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       -       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 7      11       9
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    KG     JD
 
Made up              84%    81%    89%
Might change         16     19     11
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            54%    23%    73%    56%    54%    53%
Unfavorable          24     46      5     31     30     16
Hvn't hrd enough     19     30     20     11     14     25
REFUSED               3      2      1      2      2      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            54      49      43
Unfavorable          24      24      32
Hvn't hrd enough     19      24      24
REFUSED               3       3       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            30%    58%    13%    30%    35%    25%
Unfavorable          16      4     25     15     18     14
Hvn't hrd enough     50     37     60     51     47     55
REFUSED               3      1      2      3      1      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     Oct 27  Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            30      27      26
Unfavorable          16      11      12
Hvn't hrd enough     50      61      61
REFUSED               3       2       2
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Schumer              64%    25%    93%    63%    61%    68%
Townsend             32     74      6     34     38     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      1      3      1      6
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Schumer              64        63      54
Townsend             32        32      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -         1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -         -       -
DK/NA                 3         4       7
 
 
7a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    CS     JT
 
Made up              91%    91%    90%
Might change          9      9     10
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            63%    29%    93%    57%    62%    65%
Unfavorable          30     63      3     37     35     23
Hvn't hrd enough      5      7      3      6      2      8
REFUSED               2      1      1      -      -      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            63      62      55
Unfavorable          30      31      37
Hvn't hrd enough      5       5       8
REFUSED               2       1       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            23%    53%     6%    20%    27%    19%
Unfavorable          15      5     23     13     14     15
Hvn't hrd enough     59     41     68     67     58     61
REFUSED               3      2      2      -      1      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 27  Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            23      22      21
Unfavorable          15      12       9
Hvn't hrd enough     59      65      70
REFUSED               3       1       1