April 5, 2012 - Romney Tops Santorum 2-1 In New York GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama, Gillibrand Both Have Big Leads

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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney thumps former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 54 - 21 percent among likely Republican primary voters in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 9 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 8 percent. This is the first measure of likely Republican voters in New York by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and can't be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Eight percent of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the April 24 New York presidential primary.

Romney tops Santorum 60 - 17 percent among men and 48 - 25 percent among women. The former governor also leads among groups which have gone to Santorum in other states, 49 - 26 percent among self-described conservatives and 45 - 26 percent among Tea Party members.

"Assuming the numbers hold until April 24, Gov. Mitt Romney sweeps the statewide Republican vote - good for 34 delegates to the party convention. The question is whether Santorum can pick off one of the 29 districts, each good for two delegates?" said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

President Barack Obama and Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand have big leads - 2-1 in the Senate race - over possible challengers among New York State registered voters,

New York State voters approve 56 - 38 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his best score in almost a year and up from a 50 - 46 percent approval rating February 15.

Today, women approve of the president 59 - 34 percent, up from 52 - 42 percent in February. Men approve 52 - 43 percent, up from a negative 46 - 49 percent. Independent voters split 45 - 45 percent, up from a negative 41 - 54 percent.

Obama leads Romney 56 - 33 percent and tops Santorum 59 - 30 percent.

Women back Obama over Romney 60 - 27 percent while men go Democratic 52 - 39 percent. Obama leads 45 - 37 percent among independent voters and 91 - 3 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Romney 87 - 8 percent.

"New York is still a super-blue state. President Barack Obama trounces any of the GOP challengers in a general election match-up," Carroll said. "That 94 - 1 percent lead among black voters gives the president a jumbo cushion."

U.S. Senate Race

U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a 60 - 21 percent approval rating, her highest score ever and topping her previous high of 54 - 22 percent in a June 29, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll. Today, approval is 77 - 6 percent among Democrats and 58 - 21 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 49 - 36 percent. Men approve 57 - 26 percent while women approve 63 - 16 percent.

Gillibrand leads possible Republican challengers by margins of 2-1 or higher:
  • 57 - 27 percent over Brooklyn/Queens U.S. Rep. Robert Turner;
  • 57 - 23 percent over Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos;
  • 58 - 25 percent over businesswoman Wendy Long.
In the Senate primary, 57 percent of Republicans are undecided. Turner has 19 percent, followed by Long with 11 percent and Maragos with 7 percent.

"If a happy campaign is one with a lot of opponents, even happier is one with a lot of anonymous opponents," Carroll said. "Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's three opponents, so far, fall short of even the generic GOP vote. But it's seven long months until Election Day."

From March 28 - April 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,597 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 372 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.............
                                                        TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No
 
Gingrich              9%     7%    12%    10%     7%    13%     8%
Romney               54     60     48     49     66     45     57
Santorum             21     17     25     26     14     26     19
Paul                  8     10      5      9      3      9      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 8      6     10      6     10      7      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Gingrich             10%     9%    10%     8%    12%
Romney               62     51     41     57     69
Santorum             20     21     25     19     14
Paul                  5      9     13      7      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 3     10     11      7      2
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                            CAND CHOICE
                     Tot    MR     RS
 
Mind made up         59%    71%    47%
Might change         39     26     53
DK/NA                 2      3      -
 
 
2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Wendy Long, Bob Turner, and George Maragos, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Long                 11%    11%    11%
Turner               19     24     13
Maragos               7      8      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      2
DK/NA                57     50     67
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Obama                56%     8%    91%    45%    52%    60%    46%    94%    56%
Romney               33     87      3     37     39     27     43      1     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      3      1      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      2      3      3      1      3
DK/NA                 7      3      4     11      5      9      6      4      7
 
                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHld
 
Obama                60%    36%    38%    36%    42%    49%    25%    38%    43%
Romney               33     50     49     53     49     37     61     50     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      1      3      1      4      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      5      4      3      3      4      4      4      6
DK/NA                 5      7      6      7      3      9      7      7      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                65%    51%    63%    56%    54%    55%    66%    55%    54%
Romney               27     36     25     30     35     40     22     34     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      3      2      -      5      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      2      3      3      1      3      2      3
DK/NA                 6      8      9      7      6      4      5      8      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Apr 05  Feb 15  Dec 21
                     2012    2012    2011
 
Obama                56      52      53
Romney               33      35      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       4       2
DK/NA                 7       7       7
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Obama                59%    11%    92%    52%    55%    63%    49%    95%    59%
Santorum             30     83      3     31     34     26     39      1     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      4      3      1      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      5      3      3      4      -      3
DK/NA                 6      2      4      8      6      7      6      3      7
 
                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHld
 
Obama                65%    39%    41%    38%    47%    52%    26%    42%    45%
Santorum             29     46     45     50     43     35     59     46     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      3      1      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      5      5      4      3      4      5      4      6
DK/NA                 3      8      7      6      4      7      8      6      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                68%    53%    65%    58%    57%    60%    68%    58%    58%
Santorum             23     34     24     31     31     35     22     31     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      3      2      1      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      2      3      4      2      3      3      3
DK/NA                 5      7      8      5      7      3      4      7      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 05  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
 
Obama                59      53
Santorum             30      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                 6       7
 
 
5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Bob Turner the Republican and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Turner               27%    75%     5%    26%    33%    21%    33%     3%    25%
Gillibrand           57     14     87     50     51     62     51     86     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      3      2      2      2      1      2
DK/NA                13      9      6     20     12     14     13      7     12
 
 
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - George Maragos the Republican and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Maragos              23%    68%     3%    22%    29%    18%    30%     1%    22%
Gillibrand           57     16     86     49     51     62     52     80     62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      1      2      2      1      4      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      4      3      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                15     14      7     23     15     16     14     12     13
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Wendy Long the Republican and Conservative party candidate and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democratic party candidate, for whom would you vote?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Long                 25%    70%     3%    24%    29%    20%    30%     4%    23%
Gillibrand           58     17     89     51     52     64     53     85     63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      2      1      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      3      2      3      1      2
DK/NA                13     10      5     20     13     13     12      8     12
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Approve              63%    42%    78%    61%    62%    64%    61%    73%    70%
Disapprove           25     48     12     26     30     21     28     13     23
DK/NA                12     10     10     13      7     16     10     14      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              71%    58%    61%    66%    63%    69%    62%    64%    65%
Disapprove           22     28     21     26     27     28     23     25     26
DK/NA                 8     14     18      7     10      4     15     11      9
 
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Approve              56%    71%    63%
Disapprove           27     21     29
DK/NA                16      8      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 69% Oct 2001)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 05  Feb 15  Dec 21  Oct 26  Sep 20  Dec 08  Apr 15
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2004*   1999
 
Approve              63      60      62      61      59      69      51
Disapprove           25      29      27      28      31      16      22
DK/NA                12      11      11      11       9      15      28
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Approve              60%    36%    77%    58%    57%    63%    58%    68%    62%
Disapprove           21     49      6     21     26     16     26      7     22
DK/NA                19     15     17     21     17     21     17     25     17
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              68%    55%    59%    62%    61%    63%    61%    60%    61%
Disapprove           17     24     16     27     21     23     17     20     23
DK/NA                16     21     25     10     18     14     21     20     16
 
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Approve              59%    63%    57%
Disapprove           23     16     25
DK/NA                18     20     18
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 05  Feb 15  Dec 21  Oct 26  Sep 20  Apr 05  Feb 17
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2012    2009
 
Approve              60      47      50      50      52      60      28
Disapprove           21      26      23      24      23      21      10
DK/NA                19      27      27      26      24      19      62
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                                           Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk  HsHld
 
Approve              56%    11%    88%    45%    52%    59%    45%    95%    57%
Disapprove           38     87      9     45     43     34     49      4     37
DK/NA                 6      2      3     10      5      6      6      1      6
 
                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHld
 
Approve              59%    36%    43%    36%    42%    48%    27%    40%    45%
Disapprove           36     58     54     58     53     45     70     54     50
DK/NA                 5      6      4      6      5      7      3      6      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              64%    51%    61%    57%    54%    55%    64%    56%    53%
Disapprove           30     43     32     38     41     41     32     38     41
DK/NA                 5      6      7      6      5      5      4      6      6
 
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 05  Feb 15  Dec 21  Oct 26  Sep 20  Feb 19  Aug 12
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2009    2011
 
Approve              56      50      50      50      50      72      45
Disapprove           38      46      45      45      45      17      49
DK/NA                 6       5       5       5       6      10       6
 
 

Demographic Summary