August 21, 2014 - Clinton Or Cuomo Thump GOP In 2016 New York Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Adopted Daughter Runs Better Than Native Son
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With a home court advantage, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo each lead top Republican contenders in an early look at the 2016 race for the Empire State's 29 Electoral College votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Secretary Clinton has margins of 20 to 31 percentage points over possible GOP candidates, compared to Gov. Cuomo's margins of 10 to 24 percentage points, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Clinton leads:
  • 60 - 29 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
  • 61 - 30 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
  • 54 - 34 percent over New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.
Cuomo leads:
  • 53 - 30 percent over Gov. Bush;
  • 55 - 31 percent over Sen. Paul;
  • 47 - 37 percent over Gov. Christie.
"Sure, 2016 is a long way off, but Chappaqua's Hillary Clinton has leads of 20 points or more over possible Republican candidates here in her new home state. New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie from just across the Hudson - traffic permitting - runs stronger than the others," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Gov. Andrew Cuomo also benefits from home state advantage, but not as much as New York's adopted daughter."

Clinton's margins among New York State women voters range from 33 percentage points over Christie to 41 percentage points over Paul. Among independent voters, her margins range from 7 percentage points against Christie to 26 percentage points against Bush.

Cuomo's leads among women range from 16 percentage points over Christie to 32 percentage points over Paul. Christie tops Cuomo among independent voters 41 - 35 percent, while Cuomo leads Bush 44 - 32 percent and tops Paul 43 - 35 percent in this key group.

Clinton has the best favorability rating 62 - 34 percent of any of the contenders, followed by Cuomo with a 55 - 36 percent favorability. Scores for the Republicans are:
  • 46 - 39 percent for Christie;
  • Negative 31 - 37 percent for Paul;
  • Negative 31 - 44 percent for Bush. President Obama's Job Approval
New York State voters give President Barack Obama a split 49 - 47 percent job approval rating, compared to a 50 - 46 percent score in a May 21 Quinnipiac University poll.

"He's not on the ballot, but even in true-blue New York President Barack Obama gets only a job approval stand-off," Carroll said.

Voters approve 63 - 26 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer is doing, up from 56 - 26 percent May 21 and his best score in more than a year.

U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand gets a 61 - 20 percent job approval rating, also her best score in more than a year.

From August 14 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,034 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

3. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            55%    28%    78%    47%    50%    59%    49%    60%    53%
Unfavorable          36     63     13     43     40     33     34     35     39
Hvn't hrd enough      6      6      7      5      6      6     13      4      5
REFUSED               3      3      2      5      4      2      4      2      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 63% Apr 2009 and Feb 2009, **"Governor Andrew Cuomo")
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 20  May 21  Feb 13  Nov 26  Mar 19  Jun 24  Jan 26
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2009*   2011**
 
Favorable            55      55      59      55      52      63      47
Unfavorable          36      30      28      27      27      15      11
Hvn't hrd enough      6      11      10      14      17      20      36
REFUSED               3       3       3       3       3       2       6
 
 
13. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              60%    17%    92%    54%    55%    65%    67%    63%    55%
Bush                 29     74      4     28     31     26     20     27     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      -      3      3      2      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      1      7      5      3      6      3      3
DK/NA                 5      4      3      8      5      5      4      4      6
 
 
14. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              61%    19%    92%    55%    56%    66%    68%    61%    58%
Paul                 30     72      4     31     37     25     26     29     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      -      2      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      1      5      4      3      5      3      3
DK/NA                 4      5      2      7      4      5      2      6      4
 
 
15. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              54%    16%    87%    44%    47%    60%    55%    57%    52%
Christie             34     76     10     37     42     27     28     33     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      4      2      2      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      5      4      2      6      3      2
DK/NA                 7      3      3     10      4      9      8      6      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 21  Feb 13  Mar 19
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              54      58      59
Christie             34      31      32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       2
DK/NA                 7       5       6
 
 
16. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Cuomo                53%    13%    86%    44%    50%    57%    62%    55%    50%
Bush                 30     77      4     32     34     27     22     30     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      -      2      4      2      4      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      2      3      9      7      5      7      6      4
DK/NA                 7      7      5     10      7      7      6      6      9
 
 
17. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Cuomo                55%    19%    87%    43%    52%    58%    57%    57%    54%
Paul                 31     73      3     35     36     26     31     30     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      1      1      2      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      3      3     10      6      5      6      6      4
DK/NA                 7      4      5     10      5      9      4      6      9
 
 
18. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Cuomo                47%    11%    79%    35%    44%    49%    51%    47%    47%
Christie             37     80      9     41     42     33     27     40     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      3      5      3      4      4      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      3      6      5      5      9      4      3
DK/NA                 8      4      6     13      7      9      9      6      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 21  Feb 13  Mar 19
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Cuomo                47      50      46
Christie             37      34      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       3
DK/NA                 8       9      10
 
 
19. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            62%    25%    89%    57%    57%    67%    70%    62%    61%
Unfavorable          34     72      9     40     39     30     26     35     36
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2      2      3      2      4      3      1
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      -      1      -      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 21  Feb 13  Mar 19  Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 19  Apr 18
                     2014    2014    2013    2008    2008    2013    2008
 
Favorable            62      65      71      53      48      71      48
Unfavorable          34      30      24      40      45      24      45
Hvn't hrd enough      3       3       5       4       5       5       5
REFUSED               1       2       -       3       2       -       2
 
 
20. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            31%    59%    11%    35%    39%    24%    23%    35%    31%
Unfavorable          37     10     57     37     35     39     35     38     39
Hvn't hrd enough     31     30     31     26     25     36     41     26     29
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
21. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            46%    67%    33%    50%    48%    44%    37%    48%    48%
Unfavorable          39     17     54     36     41     38     38     40     41
Hvn't hrd enough     12     15     11     12      9     15     25      9      9
REFUSED               2      -      2      3      1      3      -      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 21  Feb 13  Mar 19
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Favorable            46      41      55
Unfavorable          39      38      17
Hvn't hrd enough     12      18      27
REFUSED               2       3       2
 
 
22. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            31%    66%    16%    29%    37%    27%    19%    30%    39%
Unfavorable          44      9     62     42     43     44     44     50     38
Hvn't hrd enough     24     24     21     28     19     29     37     20     21
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      -      -      2
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              63%    44%    81%    57%    61%    66%    65%    65%    63%
Disapprove           26     42     12     31     29     24     16     27     28
DK/NA                10     14      7     11     10     10     19      8     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 69% Oct 2001)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 21  May 21  Feb 13  Nov 26  Jun 05  Dec 08  Apr 15
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2004*   1999
 
Approve              63      56      61      60      59      69      51
Disapprove           26      26      24      30      30      16      22
DK/NA                10      18      15      10      11      15      28
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              61%    47%    76%    53%    56%    65%    57%    63%    62%
Disapprove           20     34      9     22     24     16     12     20     20
DK/NA                20     19     15     25     20     19     30     17     18
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? (*High also 61% Dec 2012)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 21  May 21  Feb 13  Nov 26  Jun 05  Aug 21  Feb 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2014*   2009
                                                                     
Approve              61      53      58      57      55      61      28
Disapprove           20      18      19      24      24      20      10
DK/NA                20      29      23      19      21      20      62
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              49%    14%    76%    41%    47%    51%    55%    53%    45%
Disapprove           47     82     20     55     50     45     41     45     51
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      3      5      4      2      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 21  May 21  Feb 13  Nov 26  Jun 05  Feb 19  Aug 12
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2009    2011
 
Approve              49      50      52      47      55      72      45
Disapprove           47      46      44      49      41      17      49
DK/NA                 4       4       4       4       3      10       6
 
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs