February 12, 2004 - Kerry Buries All Dem Candidates In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rev. Al Sharpton Gets 4 Percent In Home State
Less than three weeks before the New York State primary, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is the choice of most likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, including undecided voters who are leaning toward a specific candidate, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll shows:
  • 53 percent for Kerry;
  • 12 percent for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean;
  • 8 percent for South Carolina Sen. John Edwards;
  • 4 percent for Rev. Al Sharpton;
  • 3 percent for Dennis Kucinich.
While the survey was conducted before former Gen. Wesley Clark dropped out of the race, he tied Edwards with 8 percent of voters.

"It's beginning to look like 'Super Tuesday' March 2, when New York and 13 other states hold primaries, will be super for Sen. Kerry," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Rev. Al Sharpton, the only New Yorker in the pack, doesn't have much oomph as a native son. Kerry beats him among black voters 44 - 15 percent."

Among Democratic likely primary voters, Kerry beats President George W. Bush 88 - 7 percent. But President Bush will be reelected, 27 percent of New York likely Democratic primary voters say, while 58 percent say he won't.

Among these Democrats:
  • 6 percent admire President Bush;
  • 14 percent are satisfied with him;
  • 42 percent are dissatisfied;
  • 35 percent are angry with the President.
By a 74 - 14 percent margin, Democrats say domestic issues are more important than foreign policy and national security issues in deciding how they vote.

Democrats say 66 - 24 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing for the U.S. to do.

"New York Democrats are dissatisfied with President Bush. In fact, more than one-third of them are angry with him," Carroll said.

"But 27 percent of them think the Republican will win."

From February 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 541 New York State likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, would you vote for John Kerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, or Wesley Clark?

(If undecided) Well, as of today, do you lean more towards -- Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Sharpton, Kucinich or Clark?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Kerry 53% 56% 51% 60% 44% 56% Edwards 8 6 10 8 11 9 Dean 12 14 10 12 9 11 Sharpton 4 3 5 - 15 4 Kucinich 3 5 1 2 1 4 Clark 8 8 8 7 10 9 DK/NA 13 8 15 11 10 7



2. When thinking about who you are supporting in the Demoratic primary for President, how important is it to you that the candidate -- is a strong and decisive leader? Is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Extremely important 57% 53% 59% 56% 61% 56% Very important 36 39 34 35 34 37 Smwht important 5 5 5 5 5 7 Not important - 1 - 1 - - DK/AN 2 2 2 3 - 1



3. When thinking about who you are supporting in the Demoratic primary for President, how important is it to you that the candidate -- cares about people like you?...

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Extremely important 58% 55% 60% 54% 68% 58% Very important 32 33 31 31 30 34 Smwht important 6 7 6 9 2 6 Not important 2 2 1 3 - 1 DK/AN 2 3 1 3 - 1



4. When thinking about who you are supporting in the Demoratic primary for President, how important is it to you that the candidate -- has the right experience?...

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Extremely important 39% 36% 41% 37% 44% 33% Very important 40 40 41 39 45 43 Smwht important 17 21 15 20 9 22 Not important 1 2 1 2 1 1 DK/AN 2 1 2 2 1 1



5. When thinking about who you are supporting in the Demoratic primary for President, how important is it to you that the candidate -- -- has the best chance to beat President Bush in November?...

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Extremely important 54% 51% 56% 57% 55% 65% Very important 26 26 25 24 28 22 Smwht important 12 13 11 12 11 10 Not important 5 7 4 5 3 2 DK/AN 3 2 4 3 3 2



6. When thinking about who you are supporting in the Demoratic primary for President, how important is it to you that the candidate -- stands up for what he believes in?...

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Extremely important 60% 58% 61% 61% 61% 62% Very important 32 31 32 28 35 30 Smwht important 5 7 3 5 2 5 Not important 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/AN 3 3 2 4 - 2



7. In general, which one of the following is more important in determining your vote in the Democratic primary for president.... foreign policy and national security issues such as Iraq and terrorism or domestic issues such as the economy, health care, and education?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Foreign policy.. 14% 14% 14% 18% 3% 10% Domestic issues.. 74 74 74 69 85 78 DK/NA 12 12 12 13 12 11



8. Who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for President?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Kerry 71% 76% 68% 78% 62% 78% Edwards 2 1 3 2 1 - Dean 4 5 4 3 11 4 Sharpton 1 - 2 - 4 1 Kucinich - - - - - - Clark 2 3 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 20 14 24 16 21 16



9. Do you think George W. Bush will be reelected President or not?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Yes 27% 26% 28% 29% 20% 22% No 58 61 57 58 66 65 DK/NA 15 14 15 13 13 13



10. How would you describe your feelings toward President Bush: admire, satisfied, dissatisfied, or angry?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Admire 6% 2% 8% 5% 2% 3% Satisfied 14 17 12 12 11 12 Dissatisfied 42 46 39 38 56 43 Angry 35 34 37 43 25 41 DK/NA 3 1 4 2 6 1



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Kerry 88% 89% 87% 88% 94% 91% Bush 7 7 7 8 - 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 3 2 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 3 3



12. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Right thing 24% 27% 21% 22% 13% 13% Wrong thing 66 64 67 70 73 80 DK/NA 10 9 11 7 15 7



13. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Excellent - - 1% 1% - - Good 15 17 14 15 9 12 Not so good 47 43 50 46 56 44 Poor 37 39 35 39 34 44 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 -



14. As you may know on Tuesday, March second, a number of states, including New York and California, will hold Democratic primaries for president on what is known as Super Tuesday. Do you think that Super Tuesday will be important to decide the nomination, or do you think the contest will have already been decided before March second?

                                                              Union
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     HsHolds


Important 56% 56% 56% 56% 58% 59% Already decided 36 39 34 36 35 39 DK/NA 8 6 10 8 7 2