February 25, 2004 - Kerry Tops Edwards 3 -1 Among New York Dems, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Edwards Is Big Favorite For Vice President's Slot
One week before the New York State primary, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 60 - 21 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, including undecided voters who are leaning toward a specific candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Rev. Al Sharpton has 9 percent, with 2 percent for Dennis Kucinich, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In an open-ended question, where New York likely Democratic primary voters could give any answer, 36 percent pick Edwards for the number two slot on the Democratic ticket. No other candidate, not even Sen. Hillary Clinton or Rev. Sharpton, tops 4 percent.

"Despite the speculation about a two-candidate Democratic race after Sen. Edwards' strong second-place finish in Wisconsin, New York looks like a one-candidate race - Kerry," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Capsule analysis: Kerry - dominant; Edwards - disappointing; Rev. Sharpton - weak even at home; Kucinich - irrelevant.

"As a consolation prize for Edwards, he is the number one choice for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket."

Looking at different groups of Democratic voters:
  • Voters over 65 years old favor Kerry over Edwards 72 - 11 percent;
  • Voters 50 - 64 years old back Kerry over Edwards 68 - 19 percent;
  • Voters 35 - 49 years old back Kerry over Edwards 54 - 22 percent;
  • Voters under 35 favor Kerry over Edwards 50 - 31 percent, with 14 percent for Rev. Sharpton;
  • Black voters back Kerry over Sharpton 53 - 27 percent, with 8 percent for Edwards;
  • Women back Kerry over Edwards 61 - 19 percent;
  • Men back Kerry over Edwards 59 - 24 percent.
"Edwards closes the gap somewhat among younger voters, but historically this group has had a lower turnout where it counts, on election day," Carroll said. Likely Democratic primary voters pick Kerry over President George W. Bush 88 - 7 percent, with 84 percent of Edwards backers voting for Kerry.

In an Edwards-Bush matchup, New York Democrats back Edwards 86 - 8 percent, with 87 percent of Kerry backers going with the Democrat.

Describing their feelings about President Bush, 42 percent of New York Democratic likely voters say they are "angry;" 41 percent say they are "dissatisfied;" 11 percent say they are "satisfied," and 4 percent say they "admire" the President.

In a February 12 Quinnipiac University poll, 35 percent of New York Democrats said they were "angry" with the President.

"Democratic anger with President Bush is on the rise," Carroll said.

By a 52 - 43 percent margin, Democratic voters say a candidate's views on the issues are more important in their decision than his ability to beat Bush. But Kerry voters split 48 - 48 percent on this question, while Edwards voters say 62 - 34 percent that the issues are more important.

From February 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 581 New York State likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, would you vote for John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, or Dennis Kucinich?

1a. (If undecided on q1.) Well, as of today, do you lean more towards -- Kerry, Edwards, Sharpton or Kucinich?

                                      Mod/
                      Tot     Lib     Con     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk


Kerry 60% 70% 54% 59% 61% 68% 53% Edwards 21 15 26 24 19 24 8 Sharpton 9 7 10 8 10 1 27 Kucinich 2 4 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 8 4 9 7 9 5 12

Union 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ HsHolds

Kerry 50% 54% 68% 72% 54% Edwards 31 22 19 11 28 Sharpton 14 12 2 5 3 Kucinich 2 3 1 - 3 DK/NA 3 8 10 11 11



2. (If candidate choice on q1)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                      IF CANDIDATE CHOICE Q1
                              Kerry   Edwards
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Made up 61% 66% 45% Might change 37 32 55 DK/NA 2 2 -



3. If John Kerry wins the Democratic nomination for President, who do you think he should pick to run for Vice President?

                                      Mod/
                      Tot     Lib     Con     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk


Wesley Clark 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 5% - Hillary Rodham Clinton 4 4 4 3 5 1 9 Howard Dean 4 3 4 5 3 3 5 John Edwards 36 42 34 39 34 46 20 Richard Gephardt 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 Joseph Lieberman 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Bill Richardson 1 1 - 1 1 1 - Al Sharpton 4 3 5 4 5 - 16 Other(Specify) 6 5 6 7 4 4 7 DK/NA 39 33 41 32 44 35 41

Union 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ HsHolds

Wesley Clark 2% 5% 3% 3% 4% Hillary Rodham Clinton 8 1 7 - 5 Howard Dean 4 4 2 3 3 John Edwards 28 34 40 46 40 Richard Gephardt - 3 2 1 1 Bob Graham - - 1 - - Joseph Lieberman 2 - 2 3 2 Bill Richardson 1 1 1 - 1 Al Sharpton 4 10 - 2 3 Other(Specify) 6 9 4 2 4 DK/NA 46 32 39 40 38



4. When the Democratic party nominates its Presidential candidate, which quality do you think should be more important - the candidate's ability to defeat George W. Bush or the candidate's views on the issues?

                              Kerry   Edwards
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Ability to defeat Bush 43% 48% 34% Views on issues 52 48 62 DK/NA 5 4 4



5. How would you describe your feelings toward President Bush: Admire, Satisfied, dissatisfied, or angry?

                              Kerry   Edwards
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Admire 4% 3% 9% Satisfied 11 10 10 Dissatisfied 41 40 39 Angry 42 47 40 DK/NA 2 - 1



6. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                              Edwards
                      Tot     Voters


Kerry 88% 84% Bush 7 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 3 2



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                              Kerry  
                      Tot     Voters 


Edwards 86% 87% Bush 8 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 4 3



8. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                              Kerry   Edwards
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Right thing 18% 15% 22% Wrong thing 75 80 68 DK/NA 7 5 10



9. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                              Kerry   Edwards
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Excellent 1% - 1% Good 13 12 19 Not so good 45 45 36 Poor 41 42 42 DK/NA 1 1 1