April 14, 2004 - Giuliani Is Strongest Candidate For NY Governor, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kerry Has Double-Digit Lead Over Bush In New York
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is the strongest candidate in an early survey of registered voters for the 2006 New York governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Looking at possible matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll shows:
  • Democratic U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer beats Republican incumbent Gov. George Pataki 51 - 39 percent;
  • Democratic State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer beats Gov. Pataki 47 - 42 percent;
  • Mayor Giuliani beats Sen. Schumer 56 - 36 percent;
  • Giuliani beats Spitzer 59 - 34 percent.
"That old maxim that people get fed up with faces they see a lot on TV doesn't seem to apply to Mayor Giuliani. He's on the screen more than 'Sesame Street,' but voters still remember those 9/11 images," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But Gov. Pataki is learning that another old maxim is true: Third terms are bad news. His job approval numbers are OK, but he trails both Democrats who want to deny him a fourth term - if he wants a fourth term.

"New York's junior Senator, Hillary Clinton, has hit her all time high job approval - 62 percent - the highest of any statewide elected official."

New York State registered voters approve 62 - 30 percent of the job Sen. Clinton is doing. Approval ratings for other leaders are:
  • 49 - 36 percent for Pataki;
  • 61 - 19 percent for Schumer;
  • 60 - 14 percent for Spitzer.
President George W. Bush gets a negative 40 - 56 percent approval rating, his lowest ever in New York.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry beats President Bush 49 - 35 percent in New York State, with 6 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader. With Nader out of the race, Kerry tops Bush 53 - 36 percent.

Bush should keep Vice President Richard Cheney on the ticket, voters say 43 - 39 percent. By a 60 - 26 percent margin, Republicans want to keep Cheney. If Cheney is not on the Republican ticket, New York State voters oppose, 51 - 35 percent, naming Pataki to the second spot on the Republican ticket. Even Republicans oppose placing Pataki on the ticket 48 - 42 percent.

In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 19 percent of Democrats said Kerry should pick North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his running mate. Sen. Clinton got 7 percent, followed by 5 percent each for Republican Sen. John McCain and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.

"Kerry has a commanding lead in New York State. Can the Republicans gain some ground when they hold their convention in New York City this summer? These poll numbers suggest that is a heavy lift," Carroll said.

"For Vice President, Republicans stand by Cheney 2-1 and Edwards leads the Democratic pack."

From April 5 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,279 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Apr 14, 2004 49 36 15 Nov 6, 2003 52 36 12 Oct 2, 2003 46 42 12 Jun 25, 2003 43 45 11 Apr 23, 2003 43 45 12 Feb 12, 2003 49 41 10 Dec 19, 2002 58 31 11 Sep 25, 2002 62 26 12 Jul 2, 2002 66 18 17 May 1, 2002 67 19 14 Apr 18, 2002 66 19 15 Feb 27, 2002 70 18 13 Jan 23, 2002 70 16 14 Nov 14, 2001 78 12 10 Oct 2, 2001 81 12 7 Jun 26, 2001 56 30 14 Apr 24, 2001 58 27 15 Mar 28, 2001 61 24 16 Feb 14, 2001 57 28 15 Dec 14, 2000 66 23 11 Aug 10, 2000 61 24 15 Jul 13, 2000 60 27 12 Jun 7, 2000 62 25 13 May 16, 2000 63 27 10 May 2, 2000 58 29 12 Apr 6, 2000 56 31 13 Mar 2, 2000 57 31 12 Feb 10, 2000 57 32 12 Jan 20, 2000 60 29 11 Dec 14, 1999 60 29 11 Nov 11, 1999 60 29 12 Oct 5, 1999 57 31 11 Sep 15, 1999 60 27 12 Aug 2, 1999 56 34 10 Jul 1, 1999 54 35 11 May 24, 1999 58 32 10 Apr 25, 1999 57 31 12 Apr 15, 1999 59 31 10 Mar 24, 1999 60 30 11 Feb 24, 1999 60 27 13 Feb 4, 1999 64 27 8 Oct 28, 1998 64 25 11 Oct 15, 1998 63 26 11 Sep 27, 1998 62 26 11 Jun 17, 1998 64 29 7 Mar 25, 1998 69 24 7 Feb 25, 1998 70 22 8 Dec 10, 1997 62 30 7 Sep 24, 1997 60 35 6 Jul 22, 1997 52 41 7 Apr 24, 1997 54 35 11 Mar 4, 1997 56 34 10 Oct 30, 1996 53 31 16 Sep 22, 1996 51 35 14 Jun 18, 1996 46 45 9 Apr 28, 1996 48 40 12 Mar 4, 1996 47 41 12 Dec 11, 1995 46 40 14 Nov 6, 1995 42 41 18 Apr 27, 1995 41 40 20

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA
                      
Apr 14, 2004          61      19      20
Nov 6, 2003           56      25      19           
Oct 2, 2003           60      24      16 
Jun 25, 2003          57      23      21 
Apr 24, 2003          59      22      19
Feb 12, 2003          56      22      22
Dec 19, 2002          57      22      21
Sep 26, 2002          58      17      25
Jul 3, 2002           61      17      22
May 1, 2002           58      18      24
Apr 18, 2002          60      17      23
Feb 27, 2002          61      16      23
Jan 25, 2002          63      17      21
Nov 14, 2001          64      16      20
Oct 2, 2001           69      11      19
Jun 28, 2001          60      18      22
Apr 26, 2001          61      17      22
Mar 28, 2001          60      18      22
Feb 14, 2001          56      21      23
Dec 13, 2000          62      19      19
May 2, 2000           52      18      30
Nov 11, 1999          55      19      26
Sep 16, 1999          55      18      27
Apr 15, 1999          51      22      28
Mar 23, 1999          52      20      28




TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Apr 14, 2004 62 30 8 Nov 6, 2003 59 34 8 Oct 2, 2003 61 33 7 Jun 25, 2003 57 34 9 Apr 24, 2003 52 36 12 Feb 12, 2003 56 34 9 Dec 19, 2002 57 31 12 Sep 26, 2002 53 35 12 Jul 3, 2002 56 31 13 May 1, 2002 57 30 13 Apr 18, 2002 58 28 13 Feb 27, 2002 58 32 10 Jan 25, 2002 55 31 14 Nov 14, 2001 54 34 13 Oct 2, 2001 59 28 12 Jun 28, 2001 52 31 17 Apr 26, 2001 47 34 19 Mar 28, 2001 40 38 23 Feb 14, 2001 38 30 33 Apr 14, 2004 60 14 26 Nov 6, 2003 59 15 26 Oct 2, 2003 62 15 23 Jun 25,2003 57 14 29 Apr 23, 2003 59 14 27 Feb 12, 2003 60 13 27 Apr 6, 2000 51 14 35



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as President?          
                           
                         App        Dis        DK/NA


Apr 14, 2004 40 56 4 Nov 7, 2003 44 51 5 Oct 1, 2003 42 53 5 Jun 26, 2003 52 42 6 Apr 24, 2003 58 37 4 Feb 13, 2003 50 44 5 Dec 19, 2002 51 42 7 Sep 26, 2002 58 36 6 Jul 3, 2002 64 28 8 May 1, 2002 69 25 6 Apr 22, 2002 68 27 5 Feb 27, 2002 74 20 6 Jan 25, 2002 80 16 4 Nov 14, 2001 82 15 3 Oct 2, 2001 82 14 4 Jun 28, 2001 44 47 9 Apr 26, 2001 50 40 10 Mar 28, 2001 48 38 15 Feb 14, 2001 45 30 24

TREND: Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                        SMONE    WLDN'T
                         Kerry  Bush    ELSE     VOTE    DK/NA
                         
Apr 14, 2004             53     36       2        1       9
Nov 7, 2003              50     42       1        1       6
Oct 1, 2003              48     43       1        3       5
Jun 26, 2003             43     48       1        2       5
Apr 24, 2003             38     50       1        1      10




1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 49% 71% 32% 52% 49% 49% 51% Disapprove 36 18 51 34 37 36 37 DK/NA 15 11 17 14 14 15 12

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 43% 50% 48% 41% 62% Disapprove 42 33 36 44 25 DK/NA 14 16 16 15 13



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 61% 45% 71% 65% 63% 58% 63% Disapprove 19 31 14 16 21 18 20 DK/NA 20 24 15 19 16 24 18

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 55% 56% 55% 65% 64% Disapprove 17 19 19 19 21 DK/NA 28 25 26 16 15



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 62% 33% 83% 62% 58% 66% 66% Disapprove 30 58 12 28 33 27 27 DK/NA 8 8 5 10 9 7 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 59% 56% 57% 75% 50% Disapprove 32 33 33 19 43 DK/NA 9 11 10 6 7



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 40% 77% 14% 41% 43% 37% 35% Disapprove 56 18 82 57 54 58 60 DK/NA 4 5 4 3 4 5 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 35% 53% 48% 26% 48% Disapprove 57 42 46 71 49 DK/NA 7 5 6 3 3



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 60% 54% 64% 61% 65% 56% 66% Disapprove 14 17 14 13 14 15 13 DK/NA 26 29 22 26 22 29 21

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 53% 62% 60% 58% 65% Disapprove 15 13 14 17 10 DK/NA 32 25 27 25 25



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


A lot 45% 44% 48% 46% 52% 39% 45% Some 35 34 35 36 31 39 33 Only a little 15 19 14 13 13 17 19 None at all 4 3 3 5 4 5 3 DK/NA - - - - - - -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

A lot 35% 43% 40% 45% 54% Some 36 37 36 39 26 Only a little 24 16 18 12 15 None at all 6 4 5 3 5 DK/NA - - - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 53% 16% 83% 50% 48% 57% 63% Bush 36 78 9 35 38 34 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 DK/NA 9 6 7 11 10 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 55% 38% 43% 68% 47% Bush 31 50 44 22 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 - - DK/NA 12 9 10 7 10



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 49% 15% 79% 45% 46% 52% 55% Bush 35 78 8 34 38 33 28 Nader 6 1 6 10 7 6 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 8 6 7 8 9 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 52% 37% 41% 62% 44% Bush 30 48 43 22 43 Nader 7 5 6 9 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 0 DK/NA 10 8 9 7 9



9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Howard Mills the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Schumer 63% 35% 84% 61% 62% 63% 66% Mills 18 40 6 12 17 18 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 17 21 9 22 18 16 16

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Schumer 58% 56% 56% 71% 61% Mills 22 21 21 12 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 17 21 20 14 16



10. Thinking about the presidential election, do you think George W. Bush should keep Dick Cheney on the ticket as vice president or do you think Bush should consider replacing Cheney with a different running mate?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Keep Cheney 43% 60% 33% 42% 45% 42% 41% Replace Cheney 39 26 45 41 39 39 41 DK/NA 18 14 21 17 17 19 18

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Keep Cheney 37% 48% 45% 38% 48% Replace Cheney 46 33 37 42 38 DK/NA 17 19 19 20 13



11. Suppose Bush decides not to keep Cheney on the ticket in the election. Would you like to see Bush select New York Governor George Pataki as his Vice Presidential running mate or not?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 35% 42% 32% 35% 38% 33% 34% No 51 48 50 51 47 54 53 DK/NA 14 10 19 14 15 14 13

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes 31% 32% 32% 37% 39% No 58 53 55 50 44 DK/NA 10 15 14 13 17



12. Who do you think John Kerry should select to be his Vice Presidential running mate?

                        Dem 


Wesley Clark 2% Hillary Rodham Clinton 7 Howard Dean 5 John Edwards 19 Richard Gephardt 1 Joseph Lieberman 1 John McCain 5 Bill Richardson 1 Al Sharpton 1 OTHER(vol) 10 DK/NA 48



13. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and George Pataki the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Schumer 51% 18% 75% 48% 48% 53% 57% Pataki 39 73 17 38 41 38 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 8 7 7 12 9 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Schumer 53% 45% 47% 60% 41% Pataki 33 44 41 30 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 9 9 8 7



14. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and George Pataki the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Spitzer 47% 17% 71% 46% 46% 48% 47% Pataki 42 74 20 41 42 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 7 8 12 11 9 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 45% 43% 43% 57% 36% Pataki 38 46 44 32 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 15 9 11 10 9



15. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Schumer 36% 7% 59% 34% 36% 36% 35% Giuliani 56 89 33 56 56 56 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 8 9 8 7 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Schumer 38% 29% 32% 47% 26% Giuliani 48 63 58 47 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 13 7 9 6 7



16. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Spitzer 34% 8% 55% 32% 34% 33% 36% Giuliani 59 88 38 60 58 60 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 7 7 7 6 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 34% 27% 29% 43% 26% Giuliani 54 64 61 51 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 11 8 9 5 6