August 13, 2004 - Kerry Tops Bush By 18 Points In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Schumer Is Running Away In Reelection Bid
Democratic challenger John Kerry tops President George W. Bush 53 - 35 percent among New York State voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry is ahead 55 - 35 percent.

New York voters disapprove of the job President Bush is doing 59 - 37 percent, little changed from a 58 - 36 percent disapproval June 16, the worst score ever measured in any statewide or national poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, New York State voters say 57 - 39 percent.

"Color New York State Democratic blue and throw away the crayons," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This is Kerry country and there is little likelihood that either party will spend a dime trying to change the outcome in New York. Just think of all those negative TV ads we won't see."

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Charles Schumer leads Republican challenger Howard Mills 62 - 13 percent, with 9 percent for Conservative Party candidate Marilyn O'Grady.

Voters approve 59 - 22 percent of the job Schumer is doing.

Sen. Hillary Clinton gets a 62 - 30 percent approval rating, matching results from Quinnipiac University polls April 14 and June 16.

"Sen. Schumer has a 49-point lead with less than three months to go until the election. The only question here is whether the Conservative Party candidate can beat the Republican," Carroll said.

"And Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to coast at the 60-plus approval altitude. Even 37 percent of Republicans approve of the job she is doing."

From August 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
                           
                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 13, 2004 62 30 8 Jun 16, 2004 63 30 7 Apr 14, 2004 62 30 8 Nov 6, 2003 59 34 8 Oct 2, 2003 61 33 7 Jun 25, 2003 57 34 9 Apr 24, 2003 52 36 12 Feb 12, 2003 56 34 9 Dec 19, 2002 57 31 12 Sep 26, 2002 53 35 12 Jul 3, 2002 56 31 13 May 1, 2002 57 30 13 Apr 18, 2002 58 28 13 Feb 27, 2002 58 32 10 Jan 25, 2002 55 31 14 Nov 14, 2001 54 34 13 Oct 2, 2001 59 28 12 Jun 28, 2001 52 31 17 Apr 26, 2001 47 34 19 Mar 28, 2001 40 38 23 Feb 14, 2001 38 30 33



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                           
                        App     Dis     DK/NA   


Aug 13, 2004 59 22 19 Jun 16, 2004 62 21 17 Apr 14, 2004 61 19 20 Nov 6, 2003 56 25 19 Oct 2, 2003 60 24 16 Jun 25, 2003 57 23 21 Apr 24, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 12, 2003 56 22 22 Dec 19, 2002 57 22 21 Sep 26, 2002 58 17 25 Jul 3, 2002 61 17 22 May 1, 2002 58 18 24 Apr 18, 2002 60 17 23 Feb 27, 2002 61 16 23 Jan 25, 2002 63 17 21 Nov 14, 2001 64 16 20 Oct 2, 2001 69 11 19 Jun 28, 2001 60 18 22 Apr 26, 2001 61 17 22 Mar 28, 2001 60 18 22 Feb 14, 2001 56 21 23 Dec 13, 2000 62 19 19 May 2, 2000 52 18 30 Nov 11, 1999 55 19 26 Sep 16, 1999 55 18 27 Apr 15, 1999 51 22 28 Mar 23, 1999 52 20 28



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 13, 2004 37 59 4 Jun 16, 2004 36 58 5 Apr 14, 2004 40 56 4 Nov 7, 2003 44 51 5 Oct 1, 2003 42 53 5 Jun 26, 2003 52 42 6 Apr 24, 2003 58 37 4 Feb 13, 2003 50 44 5 Dec 19, 2002 51 42 7 Sep 26, 2002 58 36 6 Jul 3, 2002 64 28 8 May 1, 2002 69 25 6 Apr 22, 2002 68 27 5 Feb 27, 2002 74 20 6 Jan 25, 2002 80 16 4 Nov 14, 2001 82 15 3 Oct 2, 2001 82 14 4 Jun 28, 2001 44 47 9 Apr 26, 2001 50 40 10 Mar 28, 2001 48 38 15 Feb 14, 2001 45 30 24



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        JK      GWB     SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA


Aug 13, 2004 55 35 2 1 7 Jun 16, 2004 55 36 1 2 5 Apr 14, 2004 53 36 2 1 9 Nov 7, 2003 50 42 1 1 6 Oct 1, 2003 48 43 1 3 5 Jun 26, 2003 43 48 1 2 5 Apr 24, 2003 38 50 1 1 10



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                        JK      GWB     RN      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Aug 13, 2004 53 35 4 1 1 7 Jun 16, 2004 52 34 7 1 1 5 Apr 14, 2004 49 35 6 - 1 8



TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat, Howard Mills the Republican, and Marilyn O'Grady the Conservative Party candidate for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        CS      HM      MO      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Aug 13, 2004 62 13 9 - 3 12 June 16, 2004 63 14 8 1 1 14 Apr 14, 2004 63 18 na 1 2 17

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 62% 37% 85% 55% 56% 68% 66% Disapprove 30 55 10 35 35 25 25 DK/NA 8 7 6 10 9 7 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 63% 52% 55% 72% 61% Disapprove 28 38 35 21 34 DK/NA 9 10 10 7 5



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 59% 47% 71% 54% 60% 57% 63% Disapprove 22 34 12 24 25 20 22 DK/NA 19 19 16 22 15 23 16

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 53% 50% 51% 68% 57% Disapprove 19 23 22 18 28 DK/NA 28 27 27 13 15



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 37% 77% 12% 37% 41% 33% 29% Disapprove 59 19 85 58 56 62 70 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 5 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 43% 47% 46% 24% 40% Disapprove 54 47 49 72 57 DK/NA 2 6 5 4 2



12. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


A lot 54% 53% 56% 56% 60% 50% 56% Some 30 29 29 31 27 33 29 Only a little 12 15 10 11 10 14 12 None at all 4 3 4 2 3 4 3 DK/NA - - - - - - -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

A lot 42% 50% 48% 57% 61% Some 37 32 33 27 30 Only a little 17 15 15 11 8 None at all 4 4 4 4 1 DK/NA - - - - -



13. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                       Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Kerry 55% 11% 87% 51% 51% 58% 69% Bush 35 79 7 35 39 31 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 4 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 9 5 8 5 9 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 49% 43% 44% 71% 50% Bush 42 45 44 21 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 8 7 6 9



14. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Kerry 53% 10% 84% 50% 49% 56% 66% Bush 35 80 7 33 39 31 25 Nader 4 3 3 7 5 3 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - DK/NA 7 6 5 8 4 9 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 42% 44% 43% 67% 49% Bush 44 44 44 22 38 Nader 7 4 5 4 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 7 6 6 6 9



15. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


A lot 12% 13% 11% 13% 14% 10% 11% Some 25 23 27 23 24 25 27 Only a little 28 25 29 25 29 27 25 None at all 34 37 32 36 32 36 35 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 1 2 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

A lot 8% 9% 9% 15% 13% Some 26 27 27 24 21 Only a little 28 30 30 26 27 None at all 37 33 34 33 36 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 3



16. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat, Howard Mills the Republican, and Marilyn O'Grady the Conservative Party candidate for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Schumer 62% 30% 86% 59% 63% 61% 74% Mills 13 39 1 7 15 11 7 O'Grady 9 15 4 12 10 8 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 3 4 DK/NA 12 15 7 17 8 16 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Schumer 55% 50% 51% 74% 63% Mills 16 19 19 6 13 O'Grady 8 11 10 8 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 18 16 16 8 11



17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 34% 74% 7% 35% 37% 31% 26% Kerry 60 20 89 59 59 62 70 DK/NA 6 6 4 6 4 7 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Bush 36% 42% 40% 21% 42% Kerry 58 52 53 73 53 DK/NA 6 7 7 6 5



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 39% 79% 14% 40% 45% 34% 31% Kerry 53 16 80 50 49 57 63 DK/NA 7 5 6 9 5 9 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Bush 45% 48% 47% 28% 43% Kerry 47 45 45 65 50 DK/NA 8 8 8 7 7



19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 43% 83% 18% 44% 49% 38% 34% Kerry 48 12 73 47 44 52 59 DK/NA 9 5 9 8 6 11 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Bush 51% 54% 53% 30% 45% Kerry 43 37 39 63 42 DK/NA 6 9 8 7 12



20. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                        Union
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Right thing 39% 73% 16% 41% 45% 33% 38% Wrong thing 57 24 80 55 52 62 60 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 5 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Right thing 42% 43% 43% 29% 46% Wrong thing 50 53 53 67 51 DK/NA 8 4 5 4 4