June 26, 2003 - Sen. Clinton Ties President Bush In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Will Lose In NY, But Win Re-Election, Voters Say
If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton throws her hat in the ring, she would tie President George W. Bush in her adopted state, 47 - 47 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Republicans back the incumbent 91 - 7 percent, with Democrats going to Sen. Clinton 79 - 16 percent and independent voters going Republican 48 - 43 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, as men go with Bush 56 - 39 percent.

Bush's approval in New York has dropped to 52 - 42 percent, down from a post- Iraq war approval of 58 - 37 percent April 24, when Bush led Clinton 47 - 44 percent.

"President Bush's approval ratings have been on a roller-coaster since September 11: Up as the U.S. combats terrorism; down as Americans face tough economic realities. Right now, his approval is dropping, and that makes Sen. Clinton and other possible Democratic challengers look better," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

New York State voters predict 59 - 29 percent that Bush will be reelected. But voters say 57 - 33 percent that a Democrat will win in New York State.

"New Yorkers split on how they intend to vote and how they think their neighbors will vote," Carroll said.

"They'd choose Bush over any Democrat except Sen. Clinton. But, even in suburbia where they love him, they don't think the President will carry New York," Carroll added.

Running against possible Democratic challengers in New York:
  • Bush tops Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 48 - 43 percent;
  • Bush beats Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 49 - 43 percent;
  • Bush beats Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt 49 - 43 percent.
If Clinton runs for President, she is the favorite of 45 percent of Democrats, followed by:
  • 13 percent for Lieberman;
  • 10 percent for Kerry;
  • 6 percent each for Gephardt and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
No other Democrat tops 5 percent.

With Clinton out of the race, Lieberman gets 23 percent of Democrats, followed by:
  • 14 percent for Kerry;
  • 11 percent for Rev. Al Sharpton
  • 9 percent each for Gephardt and Dean.
No other Democrat tops 6 percent and undecided gets 20 percent.

From June 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,095 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 395 Democrats, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                      App      Dis      DK/NA  
                                               
                                               
June 26, 2003         52%      42%       6%    
April 24, 2003        58       37        4     
February 13, 2003     50       44        5     
December 19, 2002     51       42        7     
September 26, 2002    58       36        6     
July 3, 2002          64       28        8     
May 1, 2002           69       25        6     
April 22, 2002        68       27        5     
February 27, 2002     74       20        6     
January 25, 2002      80       16        4     
November 14, 2001     82       15        3     
October 2, 2001       82       14        4     
April 26, 2001        50       40       10     
March 28, 2001        48       38       15     
February 14, 2001     45       30       24     




4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 52% 86% 30% 48% 55% 49% 55% Disapprove 42 11 65 46 40 44 38 DK/NA 6 4 5 7 6 7 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 57% 61% 60% 36% 60% Disapprove 40 32 34 56 34 DK/NA 3 7 6 7 6



9. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
                        
                    Dem 


Lieberman 23% Kerry 14 Gephardt 9 Edwards 4 Dean 9 Sharpton 11 Graham 2 Moseley-Braun 6 Kucinich 1 DK/NA 20



10. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
                        
                    Dem 


Clinton 45% Lieberman 13 Kerry 10 Gephardt 6 Edwards 2 Dean 6 Sharpton 3 Graham - Moseley-Braun - Kucinich 5 DK/NA 9



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 47% 7% 79% 43% 39% 54% 47% Bush 47 91 16 48 56 40 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 3 3 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Clinton 42% 32% 35% 68% 33% Bush 50 60 57 26 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 1



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Lieberman 43% 9% 69% 43% 37% 48% 39% Bush 49 88 23 47 54 44 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 2 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 5 3 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Lieberman 39% 31% 33% 58% 36% Bush 54 61 59 32 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 - DK/NA 3 4 4 4 4



13. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 43% 11% 70% 42% 39% 48% 40% Bush 48 86 22 46 53 44 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 5 2 4 8 6 5 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Kerry 39% 32% 34% 58% 37% Bush 50 60 57 31 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 3 - DK/NA 9 4 6 5 4



14. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Gephardt 43% 9% 69% 43% 37% 48% 42% Bush 49 87 22 49 54 45 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 3 5 4 5 5 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Gephardt 40% 30% 33% 58% 36% Bush 47 61 57 33 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 10 5 6 4 3



15. Do you think President George W. Bush will win re-election in 2004 or will the Democratic nominee win?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes/Bush 59% 84% 43% 60% 66% 52% 63% No/Democrat 29 12 44 26 23 35 24 DK/NA 12 4 14 14 11 13 13

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes/Bush 55% 66% 63% 49% 66% No/Democrat 31 22 24 38 24 DK/NA 15 12 12 13 10



16. Do you think President George W. Bush will win New York state in the 2004 Presidential election or will the Democratic nominee win New York State?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes/Bush 33% 50% 23% 29% 33% 33% 28% No/Democrat 57 39 68 62 59 55 58 DK/NA 11 11 9 9 9 12 13

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes/Bush 30% 44% 40% 24% 34% No/Democrat 57 47 50 63 58 DK/NA 13 9 10 13 8