October 1, 2003 - President Bush Plummets To New Low In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gen. Clark Is The New Top Gun, Leading Dems And Bush
New York State voters have sent President George W. Bush's approval plummeting to its lowest rating ever, 42 - 53 percent, as several Democratic contenders now beat the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

President Bush had a 52 - 42 percent approval rating in New York State in a June 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Bush's previous low was a 44 - 47 percent approval in New York State in June, 2001.

Gen. Wesley Clark tops Bush in New York 48 - 41 percent in the 2004 face-off. Other Democratic contenders have gained on Bush since the June 26 survey:
  • Sen. Hillary Clinton beats Bush 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 47 - 47 tie June 26;
  • Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman tops Bush 49 - 42 percent, a reversal of Bush's 49 - 43 percent lead;
  • Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry tops Bush 48 - 43 percent, reversing Bush's 48 - 43 percent lead;
  • Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt gets 46 percent to Bush's 44 percent, a tie and a slip from Bush's 49 - 43 percent lead;
  • Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean tops Bush 47 - 43 percent.
"Talk about a turn-around. The New York poll numbers have flip-flopped. They look more like a rerun of the 2000 election than the last poll," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This is the first time we find more than half of the voters in any of the four states surveyed by Quinnipiac University do not approve of President Bush, and the first time we see him trailing Democratic candidates," Carroll added.

By a 68 - 23 percent margin, New York State voters expect the Democratic candidate to carry the state in '04. But voters split on whether Bush will carry the nation, with 44 percent for Bush and 42 percent for the Democrat.

"New York voters expect deja vu all over again: They see a Democratic romp in New York, but they're not sure how it will go nationally," Carroll said.

If Sen. Clinton runs for President, she is the favorite of 38 percent of Democrats, followed by:
  • 13 percent for Clark;
  • 12 percent for Dean;
  • 9 percent for Lieberman;
  • 7 percent for Kerry.
With Clinton out of the race, Clark leads the pack with 18 percent of Democrats, with Dean at 17 percent, a tie. Other candidates are closely packed, with:
  • 13 percent Lieberman;
  • 12 percent for Kerry;
  • 6 percent each for Rev. Al Sharpton and former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun;
  • 5 percent for Gephardt, half his previous tally.
No other Democrat tops 4 percent and undecided gets 16 percent.

"Is Gen. Clark the real deal or the flavor of the month? In this snapshot, he's a top choice of New York Democrats, unless favorite daughter Hillary Clinton throws her Yankee cap into the ring," Carroll said.

From September 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,201 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 454 Democrats, with a margin of error of 4.6 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                    App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 1, 2003 42% 53% 5% Jun 26, 2003 52 42 6 Apr 24, 2003 58 37 4 Feb 13, 2003 50 44 5 Dec 19, 2002 51 42 7 Sep 26, 2002 58 36 6 Jul 3, 2002 64 28 8 May 1, 2002 69 25 6 Apr 22, 2002 68 27 5 Feb 27, 2002 74 20 6 Jan 25, 2002 80 16 4 Nov 14, 2001 82 15 3 Oct 2, 2001 82 14 4 Jun 28, 2001 44 47 9 Apr 26, 2001 50 40 10 Mar 28, 2001 48 38 15 Feb 14, 2001 45 30 24



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 42% 75% 24% 39% 46% 39% 44% Disapprove 53 22 73 53 51 55 53 DK/NA 5 3 3 8 3 6 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 48% 51% 50% 30% 47% Disapprove 48 45 46 65 47 DK/NA 4 4 4 5 6



9. Now I'm going to name ten Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all ten names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or General Wesley Clark?
                        
                    Dem 


Lieberman 13% Kerry 12 Gephardt 5 Edwards 4 Dean 17 Sharpton 6 Graham - Moseley-Braun 6 Kucinich 2 Clark 18 DK/NA 16



10. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                        
                    Dem 


Clinton 38% Lieberman 9 Kerry 7 Gephardt 3 Edwards 2 Dean 12 Sharpton 2 Graham 1 Moseley-Braun 2 Kucinich 2 Clark 13 DK/NA 9



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clark 48% 13% 73% 47% 46% 51% 52% Bush 41 81 17 39 44 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 4 2 4 DK/NA 6 4 6 7 5 8 5

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clark 46% 42% 43% 61% 37% Bush 46 48 47 28 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 4 2 DK/NA 4 6 5 6 8



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 51% 15% 76% 49% 43% 58% 49% Bush 43 84 18 41 49 37 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 5 1 5 DK/NA 2 - 2 2 1 3 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 47% 40% 42% 68% 39% Bush 46 54 51 27 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 3 1 2 1 3



13. Suppose ... the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Lieberman 49% 16% 74% 47% 43% 54% 49% Bush 42 80 19 39 47 37 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 7 4 3 4 DK/NA 4 2 4 3 3 4 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Lieberman 46% 41% 43% 59% 45% Bush 45 51 49 30 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 5 2 DK/NA 5 3 3 4 4



14. Suppose... the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 48% 12% 72% 48% 44% 51% 49% Bush 43 84 20 39 47 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 2 5 3 2 3 DK/NA 5 4 5 6 4 7 5

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 41% 40% 40% 61% 41% Bush 52 51 51 28 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 4 2 DK/NA 5 5 5 6 5



15. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Gephardt 46% 10% 71% 43% 39% 52% 48% Bush 44 85 20 43 50 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 5 1 4 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 6 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Gephardt 42% 38% 40% 56% 39% Bush 50 53 52 31 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 5 1 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 6



16. Suppose ... the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Dean 47% 12% 71% 46% 44% 50% 50% Bush 43 85 20 40 48 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 5 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Dean 45% 39% 41% 60% 37% Bush 46 52 50 30 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 5 6 8 6



18. Do you think President George W. Bush will win re-election in 2004 or will the Democratic nominee win?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes/Bush 44% 74% 28% 43% 51% 37% 46% No/Democrat 42 18 60 39 38 46 42 DK/NA 14 9 12 18 11 17 13

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes/Bush 50% 48% 49% 34% 51% No/Democrat 35 36 36 54 33 DK/NA 15 16 15 12 16



19. Do you think President George W. Bush will win New York state in the 2004 Presidential election or will the Democratic nominee win New York State?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes/Bush 23% 37% 17% 21% 21% 25% 17% No/Democrat 68 57 75 68 72 64 75 DK/NA 9 6 8 11 7 11 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes/Bush 25% 25% 25% 20% 25% No/Democrat 65 63 64 74 66 DK/NA 9 11 11 7 9



20. As you may know the 2004 Republican national convention will be held in New York City. Does this make you more likely to vote for Bush for President, less likely to vote for Bush, or doesn't it affect your vote for President?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


More likely 6% 10% 3% 7% 6% 6% 2% Less likely 9 3 12 10 7 10 7 Doesn't affect 84 87 83 82 87 82 90 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 2 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

More likely 5% 3% 4% 9% 5% Less likely 8 5 6 13 5 Doesn't affect 86 90 89 76 89 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1