November 7, 2003 - Dem Candidates All Beat Bush In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President's Approval Slump Continues
The leading Democratic presidential contenders all top President George W. Bush in head-to-head matchups in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

New York State voters give President Bush a negative 44 - 51 percent approval, compared to 42 - 53 percent in an October 1 survey and a 52 - 42 percent approval rating in New York State in a June 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton runs best against Bush in her new home state, beating the incumbent 53 - 40 percent. Among the announced candidates, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry runs best, topping Bush 50 - 42 percent. Results for other Democratic contenders are:
  • Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman over Bush 49 - 43 percent;
  • Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt tops Bush 49 - 43 percent;
  • Gen. Wesley Clark tops Bush 47 - 43 percent;
  • Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean tops Bush 48 - 44 percent.
"The shift away from President Bush that registered in our last poll persists. Everyone of the declared Democrats outscores Bush in New York, and the undeclared candidate, Sen. Hillary Clinton, scores the highest," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"New York City just doesn't like President Bush and the overwhelmingly negative vibes there drive down his statewide approval rating," Carroll added.

Bush gets a negative 32 - 63 percent approval in New York City. Upstate voters approve 51 - 43 percent and suburban voters split 49 - 47 percent.

If Sen. Clinton runs for President, she is the favorite of 48 percent of New York Democrats, followed by:
  • 9 percent each for Clark and Dean;
  • 8 percent for Lieberman;
  • 7 percent for Kerry;
  • 6 percent for Gephardt.
With Clinton out of the race, Lieberman leads the pack with 17 percent of Democrats. Following closely are:
  • Dean with 15 percent;
  • Clark with 12 percent;
  • Kerry and Rev. Al Sharpton with 11 percent each;
  • Gephardt with 9 percent.
"The more she says she won't run, the more New Yorkers wish she would. Sen. Clinton went from leading the pack with 38 percent of Democrats last month to 48 percent today,"

"But it's still a Democratic free-for-all in the Empire State. With Clinton out of the running, 'don't know' wins with 19 percent.

From October 29 - November 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,304 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey includes 483 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 44% 78% 21% 43% 49% 40% 39% Disapprove 51 16 73 55 48 54 57 DK/NA 5 5 6 2 3 6 4

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Approve 51% 52% 51% 32% 49% Disapprove 44 43 43 63 47 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 4



9. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                          
                      Dem 


Lieberman 17% Kerry 11 Gephardt 9 Edwards 3 Dean 15 Sharpton 11 Moseley-Braun 3 Kucinich 1 Clark 12 DK/NA 19



10. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                        
                      Dem


Clinton 48% Lieberman 8 Kerry 7 Gephardt 6 Edwards 1 Dean 9 Sharpton 4 Moseley-Braun - Kucinich 1 Clark 9 DK/NA 6



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clark 47% 14% 71% 48% 46% 48% 47% Bush 43 82 19 40 48 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 3 1 2 3 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 3 8 6

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Clark 41% 42% 41% 59% 40% Bush 46 50 49 31 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 10 7 8 5 4



12. Suppose... the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 53% 16% 82% 51% 45% 59% 54% Bush 40 80 13 39 48 34 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 3 3 2 6 4 3 3

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Clinton 46% 41% 43% 73% 40% Bush 46 52 50 21 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 5 4 5 3 3



13. Suppose... the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Lieberman 49% 13% 77% 48% 43% 54% 54% Bush 43 85 16 42 50 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 4 2 4 5 3 5 3

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Lieberman 45% 41% 42% 60% 42% Bush 47 53 51 30 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 3 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 2



14. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 50% 13% 77% 51% 46% 53% 54% Bush 42 83 15 40 48 37 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 6 3 5 6 4 7 6

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Kerry 47% 42% 43% 63% 40% Bush 46 49 48 29 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 5 7 7 5 4



15. Suppose... the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Gephardt 49% 14% 75% 48% 47% 50% 56% Bush 43 84 16 41 48 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 6 2 6 7 4 7 4

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Gephardt 43% 39% 40% 61% 44% Bush 46 52 50 30 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 6 7 5 4



16. Suppose... the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Dean 48% 13% 73% 47% 44% 51% 52% Bush 44 84 19 42 50 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 2 3 DK/NA 5 3 5 5 3 6 4

UpState...... UpState Urban Other Total NYC Sub

Dean 41% 39% 40% 62% 39% Bush 49 52 51 30 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 7 6 6 4 3