September 15, 2004 - Bush Cuts Into Big Kerry Lead In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Support For Bush, Iraq War Improve Slightly
President George W. Bush is getting a post-convention bounce in New York State and now trails Democratic challenger John Kerry by 47 - 41 percent among registered voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry is ahead 49 - 42 percent.

This is down from a 53 - 35 percent Kerry lead, with 4 percent for Nader, in an August 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among likely voters, including undecided voters leaning toward a candidate, Kerry is ahead 50 - 45 percent, with 3 percent for Nader.

New York registered voters disapprove 53 - 43 percent of the job President Bush is doing, compared to 59 - 37 percent August 13.

Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, New York State voters say 52 - 42 percent, compared to 57 - 39 percent four weeks ago.

"New York State is still colored a solid Democratic blue by politicians on both sides, but the color faded in the last month as President Bush came bouncing out of a very successful convention in New York City," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The President's approval rating has improved from terrible, to just bad. Sen. Kerry is still ahead among New York registered voters, but his lead dropped from 18 points to 6 points ."

Looking at which candidate would do a better job on key issues, voters say:
  • 54 - 39 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 47 percent for Kerry and 46 percent for Bush, a tie, on who would do a better job in Iraq;
  • 52 - 40 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism.
From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,438 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 929 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 15, 2004 43 53 4 Aug 13, 2004 37 59 4 Jun 16, 2004 36 58 5 Apr 14, 2004 40 56 4 Nov 7, 2003 44 51 5 Oct 1, 2003 42 53 5 Jun 26, 2003 52 42 6 Apr 24, 2003 58 37 4 Feb 13, 2003 50 44 5 Dec 19, 2002 51 42 7 Sep 26, 2002 58 36 6 Jul 3, 2002 64 28 8 May 1, 2002 69 25 6 Apr 22, 2002 68 27 5 Feb 27, 2002 74 20 6 Jan 25, 2002 80 16 4 Nov 14, 2001 82 15 3 Oct 2, 2001 82 14 4 Jun 28, 2001 44 47 9 Apr 26, 2001 50 40 10 Mar 28, 2001 48 38 15 Feb 14, 2001 45 30 24

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        JK      GWB     SmnEls   Wld'tVt  DK/NA


Sep 15, 2004 49 42 2 1 7 Aug 13, 2004 55 35 2 1 7 Jun 16, 2004 55 36 1 2 5 Apr 14, 2004 53 36 2 1 9 Nov 7, 2003 50 42 1 1 6 Oct 1, 2003 48 43 1 3 5 Jun 26, 2003 43 48 1 2 5 Apr 24, 2003 38 50 1 1 10



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                        JK      GWB     RN      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Sep 15, 2004 47 41 4 - 1 6 Aug 13, 2004 53 35 4 1 1 7 Jun 16, 2004 52 34 7 1 1 5 Apr 14, 2004 49 35 6 - 1 8



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 43% 81% 11% 47% 47% 39% 36% Disapprove 53 16 85 49 49 57 58 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 4 5 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 37% 54% 51% 33% 44% Disapprove 59 42 45 61 54 DK/NA 4 4 4 7 2



10. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


A lot 56% 55% 59% 53% 60% 53% 61% Some 29 32 27 28 27 30 27 Only a little 12 9 11 15 11 13 10 None at all 3 4 2 3 3 3 1 DK/NA - - - - - - -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

A lot 52% 50% 50% 61% 59% Some 27 34 32 24 29 Only a little 14 14 14 12 9 None at all 7 3 4 3 2 DK/NA - - - - -



11. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table is of registered voters.

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 49% 13% 83% 41% 45% 52% 56% Bush 42 84 9 47 48 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 2 6 8 5 8 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 50% 38% 41% 58% 47% Bush 42 53 51 31 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 - 1 DK/NA 4 6 6 8 6



12. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? This table is of registered voters.

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 47% 12% 84% 38% 43% 51% 52% Bush 41 83 8 44 46 37 35 Nader 4 2 2 9 5 3 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 3 5 8 5 7 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Kerry 46% 37% 39% 58% 47% Bush 41 52 50 31 43 Nader 4 4 4 5 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 9 6 6 6 5



12. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? This table is of likely voters.

                      Likely
                      Voters


Kerry 49% Bush 43 Nader 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 5

12. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

(If undecided on Q12) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'

                      Likely plus
                      Leaners


Kerry 50% Bush 45 Nader 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 2



17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Bush 39% 79% 8% 42% 44% 35% 29% Kerry 54 16 87 48 50 58 62 DK/NA 7 5 5 9 6 7 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Bush 35% 49% 46% 30% 42% Kerry 57 43 46 64 51 DK/NA 8 7 8 6 7



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Bush 46% 85% 14% 51% 53% 40% 43% Kerry 47 11 78 43 41 52 50 DK/NA 7 3 8 6 5 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Bush 42% 56% 53% 38% 48% Kerry 54 36 40 56 44 DK/NA 4 8 7 6 8



19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Bush 52% 88% 22% 57% 59% 46% 48% Kerry 40 8 69 33 34 45 44 DK/NA 8 3 9 10 7 9 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Bush 45% 61% 58% 47% 50% Kerry 47 31 34 45 41 DK/NA 8 8 8 8 9



31. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Right thing 42% 75% 14% 44% 46% 38% 38% Wrong thing 52 20 80 50 48 56 57 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 6 6 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Right thing 38% 54% 51% 30% 45% Wrong thing 52 41 44 62 51 DK/NA 10 5 6 8 4



32. How worried are you that there will be another terrorist attack on the United States in the next few months -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not worried at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Very worried 24% 22% 30% 16% 19% 29% 23% Smwht worried 42 44 37 48 38 45 40 Not too worried 20 20 21 20 23 17 22 Not worried at all 13 13 11 16 18 9 13 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Very worried 20% 18% 18% 30% 26% Smwht worried 42 45 45 35 47 Not too worried 23 22 23 20 14 Not worried at all 15 13 14 13 13 DK/NA - 1 1 1 -