January 23, 2002 - Pataki Opens Election Year With 2 -1 Lead Over Dems, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; McCall Closes Gap To Tie Cuomo In Dem Primary
New York Gov. George Pataki opens his reelection year with a 2 -1 lead over either likely Democratic challenger, but his approval rating has slipped from its record high, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

If the November election for governor were held today:
  • Pataki tops State Comptroller H. Carl McCall 57 - 27 percent;
  • Pataki beats former U.S. Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo 59 - 28 percent.
The Governor has a 70 - 16 percent approval rating, down from his record 78 - 12 percent approval in a November 14, 2001, poll by the independent Quinnipiac University.

In a Democratic primary, Cuomo and McCall are tied at 38 percent each, with 20 percent undecided. In the November 14 poll, Cuomo topped McCall 37 - 29 percent, with 30 percent undecided.

From January 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 893 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent. The survey includes 359 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.

"Gov. Pataki, first elected as the ABC - Anybody But Cuomo - candidate, is now highly regarded with a 2 -1 lead over either challenger. His stratospheric post-September 11 approval rating has slipped, but it is still a very high 70 percent," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Comptroller H. Carl McCall has closed the gap with former federal Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo," Carroll added. "They're neck and neck any way we look at it."

A tough Democratic primary campaign will strengthen the party, 45 percent of registered Democrats said, while 31 percent say it will weaken the party, with 22 percent undecided.

If McCall and Cuomo could agree to run on a Governor-Lt. Governor ticket, 39 percent of Democrats say Cuomo should get the top slot, while 38 percent say McCall should lead.

Pataki has a 50 - 9 percent favorability rating, with 27 percent mixed and 14 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings for the challengers are:
                Favorable          Unfavorable          Mixed              No Opinion
McCall		   25			7		  15		        52
Cuomo		   18		        18		  19		        45



Their local economy is "good," 34 percent of upstaters say, while 3 percent say it is "excellent;" 37 percent say it is "not so good," and 25 percent say it is "poor." The local economy will get better in the next year, 23 percent of upstaters say, while 15 percent say it will get worse and 61 percent say it will stay the same.

In New York City, 32 percent say the economy is "good," while 4 percent say it is excellent;" 44 percent say it is "not so good," and 16 percent say it is poor." The city's economy will get better, 37 percent say, while 10 percent say it will get worse and 49 percent say it will stay the same.

In the suburbs, the economy is "good," 53 percent of voters say, while 4 percent say it is "excellent;" 32 percent say it is "not so good," and 11 percent say it is "poor." The suburban economy will get better, 25 percent of voters say, while 16 percent say it will get worse and 57 percent say it will stay the same.

"Upstate and New York City voters are worried about their local economy and their personal finances, while suburban voters feel better," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Approve 70% 69% 65% 78% 84% 63% 67% 74% 54% 72% 68% Disapprove 16 16 21 11 7 21 21 14 30 15 17 DK/NA 14 15 14 12 10 16 12 12 17 12 15

5. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Governor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


A lot 14% 13% 15% 16% 16% 14% 12% 15% 14% 13% 15% Some 33 34 30 36 34 33 35 34 28 36 31 Only a little 36 38 35 35 33 36 38 36 45 35 37 None at all 16 15 20 12 16 17 15 15 14 16 16 DK/NA - - - - - - - - - - -

6. Is your opinion of Governor George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 50% 50% 46% 57% 68% 39% 48% 54% 24% 55% 46% Unfavorable 9 8 11 6 2 12 12 8 7 9 8 Mixed 27 31 23 26 17 33 30 27 39 25 28 Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 19 10 12 16 10 10 29 10 16 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1

7. Is your opinion of State Comptroller H.Carl McCall favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 25% 25% 25% 24% 21% 30% 22% 24% 33% 29% 22% Unfavorable 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 7 5 10 5 Mixed 15 13 15 20 16 13 20 16 13 19 12 Hvn't hrd enough 52 56 51 48 54 51 51 52 48 42 61 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - - 1 - - -

8. Is your opinion of former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 18% 19% 20% 14% 9% 24% 21% 18% 7% 16% 20% Unfavorable 18 16 15 24 27 11 18 20 10 22 14 Mixed 19 15 23 18 15 21 22 17 25 20 18 Hvn't hrd enough 45 51 41 42 49 45 40 44 58 42 48 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - - 1 - - -

9. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat, and George Pataki the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Cuomo 28% 27% 37% 18% 5% 48% 27% 24% 45% 23% 32% Pataki 59 63 48 68 86 37 61 64 30 66 53

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 - 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 10 8 12 12 7 12 10 10 18 7 13

10. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat, and George Pataki the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


McCall 27% 25% 33% 20% 5% 43% 26% 22% 53% 26% 28% Pataki 57 61 49 64 84 37 60 62 26 61 54

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 - 1 1 1 0 DK/NA 14 12 15 15 10 18 13 15 18 12 16

11. (If registered Democrat ask:) If the Democratic Primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were H.Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?

                       Reg Democrats 


McCall 38% Cuomo 38

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 DK/NA 20

12. (If registered Democrat ask:) Do you think that a tough Democratic primary campaign for governor between H. Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo will strengthen or weaken the Democratic party in New York State?

                       Reg Democrats 


Strengthen 45% Weaken 31 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 DK/NA 22

13. (If registered Democrat ask:) Some have suggested that to avoid a tough Democratic primary campaign McCall and Cuomo should run on the same ticket. If you had to choose, would you prefer a Democratic ticket with Andrew Cuomo for Governor and H.Carl McCall for Lieutenant Governor or a Democratic ticket with H.Carl McCall for Governor and Andrew Cuomo for Lieutenant Governor?

                       Reg Democrats 


Cuomo/McCall 39% McCall/Cuomo 38 DK/NA 23

16. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Excellent 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% Good 28 32 22 31 33 22 32 32 20 34 24 Not so good 54 52 56 54 54 56 53 52 56 48 58 Poor 16 14 19 14 11 20 14 15 22 15 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

17. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in the United States will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Get better 51% 49% 51% 55% 64% 47% 45% 51% 45% 56% 47% Get worse 16 14 20 10 10 17 19 15 17 12 18 Stay the same 31 35 26 34 26 35 33 32 37 30 32 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 2

18. Would you describe the state of New York state's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Excellent 2% 1% 2% 2% 4% - 1% 1% - 2% 1% Good 31 27 30 37 36 27 29 32 29 37 25 Not so good 53 53 54 52 47 58 53 51 55 47 58 Poor 13 18 12 8 11 13 15 14 13 13 14 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2

19. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in New York state will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Get better 42% 34% 48% 44% 49% 38% 40% 38% 49% 45% 39% Get worse 13 16 11 11 10 15 14 15 9 12 14 Stay the same 42 48 37 43 38 46 42 44 37 40 44 DK/NA 3 2 4 2 2 2 4 3 5 3 3

20. Would you describe the state of your local area's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Excellent 4% 3% 4% 4% 6% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% Good 38 34 32 53 45 31 41 42 26 43 34 Not so good 38 37 44 32 33 44 37 35 46 33 42 Poor 18 25 16 11 15 20 16 17 20 17 19 DK/NA 2 1 5 1 1 3 3 2 5 2 3

21. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in your local area will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Get better 29% 23% 37% 25% 29% 30% 28% 25% 45% 31% 27% Get worse 13 15 10 16 13 15 12 15 15 15 12 Stay the same 56 61 49 57 56 53 58 59 39 53 58 DK/NA 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

22. Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as: excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Excellent 9% 10% 7% 11% 12% 7% 9% 10% 4% 12% 7% Good 53 57 44 62 62 48 53 62 35 56 51 Not so good 28 25 36 22 20 34 28 21 44 25 30 Poor 8 7 12 4 5 9 9 6 16 6 10 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 - 2 1 1 2

23. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal finances will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Get better 41% 39% 45% 39% 44% 40% 41% 34% 62% 48% 36% Get worse 6 6 7 5 3 8 5 7 3 4 8 Stay the same 51 54 45 55 52 49 54 58 30 46 55 DK/NA 2 - 3 1 1 2 1 1 4 2 1

24. How much do you think the policies of the state government are responsible for the current condition of the economy in your local area? ... A lot, some, not much, or not at all?
                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


A lot 29% 29% 32% 26% 24% 33% 26% 25% 48% 28% 31% Some 45 51 36 48 48 45 46 49 33 43 47 Not much 18 16 19 20 20 15 22 19 9 22 15 Not at all 4 2 7 3 6 3 3 4 7 5 4 DK/NA 3 3 5 3 2 5 3 3 3 3 4

25. How much do you think the September 11 terrorist attacks are responsible for the current condition of the economy in your local area... A lot, some, not much, or not at all?

                       Tot  UPS  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


A lot 40% 25% 60% 35% 38% 43% 35% 33% 56% 37% 43% Some 36 40 27 42 34 38 37 40 27 38 34 Not much 15 23 8 14 17 12 21 19 7 15 16 Not at all 8 12 4 8 10 6 7 8 9 10 6 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 - - - - 1