August 15, 2002 - McCall Takes Lead Among Likely New York Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cuomo Backers Moving To Undecided
Likely New York State Democratic voters give State Comptroller H. Carl McCall a solid 47 - 31 percent lead over former U.S. Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo in their hard-fought campaign for the Democratic nomination for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 21 percent are undecided.

This is the first measure of likely voters for the September 10 Democratic Primary. But McCall also has moved into the lead among registered Democratic voters, 34 - 27 percent, with 32 percent undecided.

In a July 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Cuomo led 47 - 32 percent among registered Democrats, with 16 percent undecided.

"The new likely voter numbers look bright for Comptroller McCall. But there's a shadow. With less than a month until the primary, about one-fifth of likely Democratic voters have not made up their mind. So this is still a horse race," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Among the broader pool of registered Democrats, the bottom fell out for Andrew Cuomo in the last six weeks. A few voters shifted to McCall, but many voters had second thoughts about Cuomo and moved to the 'undecided' column."

McCall's support is more solid: 52 percent of his likely voters are "very sure" about voting for him, while 44 percent say they might change their mind; 41 percent of Cuomo's likely voters are "very sure" about voting for him, while 52 percent might change their mind.

Among McCall backers, 73 percent say they're voting more for McCall while 16 percent say they're voting mainly against Cuomo; 85 percent of Cuomo supporters are voting mainly for Cuomo, while 11 percent are mainly against McCall.

McCall has a 42 - 3 percent favorability among likely Democratic voters, with 21 percent mixed and 32 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Cuomo has a 32 - 14 percent favorability, with 29 percent mixed and 24 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

McCall has the experience to be governor, likely Democratic voters say 61 - 11 percent. And these voters say 65 - 7 percent that he has a likable personality.

Cuomo has the experience to be governor, Democrats say 45 - 31 percent, and by a 51 - 24 percent margin they say he has a likable personality.

"The political experts have suspected all along that a big vote favors Cuomo while McCall does better among more committed Democrats. These Quinnipiac University poll numbers support that theory," Carroll said.

"Experience and likability? Likely Democratic voters go with McCall on these qualities.

"Let's see how costly -- and how nasty - this race gets in the next four weeks."

From August 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 624 New York State registered Democratic voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The survey includes 482 likely Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, would you vote for H. Carl McCall or Andrew Cuomo? (If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to H. Carl McCall or Andrew Cuomo?)

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


McCall 47% 54% 42% 47% 59% Cuomo 31 27 33 32 22

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 21 17 23 18 18

2. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the primary?

                     LIKELY......
                     McCall Cuomo
                     vtrs   vtrs


Very sure 52% 41% Might change 44 52 DK/NA 4 7

3. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice) or more a vote against (other candidate)?

                     LIKELY......
                     McCall Cuomo
                     vtrs   vtrs


For your candidate 73% 85% Against other cand 16 11 DK/NA 11 5

4. Is your opinion of H.Carl McCall favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Favorable 42% 49% 38% 41% 53% Unfavorable 3 2 3 4 2 Mixed 21 25 18 21 20 Hvn't hrd enough 32 23 38 33 25 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 1

5. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Favorable 32% 31% 33% 30% 35% Unfavorable 14 17 11 19 10 Mixed 29 27 31 31 25 Hvn't hrd enough 24 23 25 20 28 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 2

6. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Favorable 32% 31% 33% 29% 31% Unfavorable 31 33 30 26 46 Mixed 32 34 31 40 21 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 6 4 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1

7. Do you think H.Carl McCall has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New York or not?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Yes 61% 68% 57% 62% 67% No 11 10 12 10 14 DK/NA 27 22 31 28 19

8. Do you think Andrew Cuomo has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New York or not?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Yes 45% 42% 48% 45% 49% No 31 35 28 31 32 DK/NA 24 22 25 23 19

9. Do you think H.Carl McCall has a likable personality or not?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Yes 65% 68% 63% 62% 82% No 7 4 8 7 3 DK/NA 28 28 28 31 15

10. Do you think Andrew Cuomo has a likable personality or not?

                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk


Yes 51% 48% 54% 48% 58% No 24 26 23 27 23 DK/NA 25 26 24 25 19

11. How will the fact that Andrew Cuomo is the son of former Governor Mario Cuomo influence your vote in the Democratic primary for Governor this year? Will it make you more likely to vote for Andrew Cuomo in the primary, less likely to vote for Andrew Cuomo in the primary, or won't it have much effect one way or the other?
				                        LIKELY......
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS   McCall Cuomo
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk    vtrs   vtrs


More likely 21% 20% 22% 21% 24% 10% 38% Less likely 13 15 12 16 12 21 2 Not much effect 63 64 62 61 63 68 56 DK/NA 3 1 4 2 1 - 3

12. How will the fact that H.Carl McCall would be New York State's first black governor influence your vote in the Democratic primary for Governor this year? Will it make you more likely to vote for H.Carl McCall in the primary, less likely to vote for H. Carl McCall in the primary, or won't it have much effect one way or the other?
					                LIKELY......
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS   McCall Cuomo
                     Tot    Men    Women  Wht    Blk	  vtrs   vtrs


More likely 15% 15% 15% 7% 30% 23% 8% Less likely 3 2 3 2 4 - 6 Not much effect 78 81 76 88 63 76 82 DK/NA 4 2 5 2 3 2 5