September 3, 2002 - McCall Tops 50% Among Likely NY Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 'Undecided' Is Big Winner In Other Races
State Comptroller H. Carl McCall has a solid 53 - 31 percent lead over former U.S. Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo as their campaign for the Democratic nomination for Governor enters its final week, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 15 percent are undecided.

The tally includes likely voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates. An August 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University showed McCall leading Cuomo 47 - 31 percent among likely Democratic voters, including leaners.

"Things can change a lot in the campaign's closing days, but Comptroller McCall has crossed the magic 50 percent mark. Cuomo hasn't moved since mid-August, while McCall racked up a few points. Result: a widening gap," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

McCall supporters are more solid: 73 percent are "very sure" about voting for him, while 24 percent say they might change their mind; 53 percent of Cuomo's backers are "very sure" about voting for him, while 44 percent might change their mind. Among McCall backers, 80 percent say they're voting more for McCall while 14 percent say they're voting mainly against Cuomo; 80 percent of Cuomo supporters are voting mainly for Cuomo, while 12 percent are mainly against McCall.

McCall has a 50 - 5 percent favorability among likely Democratic voters, with 16 percent mixed and 28 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Cuomo has a 33 - 14 percent favorability, with 30 percent mixed and 21 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

If McCall loses the Democratic primary, 36 percent of his likely voters say they will vote for Republican incumbent George Pataki in November, while 44 percent say they will stay with the Democratic candidate, Cuomo.

If Cuomo loses the primary, 39 percent of his likely voters say they will vote for Pataki in November, while 42 percent say they will back McCall. Lt. Governor - Comptroller

In the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor, Dennis Mehiel has a 24 - 17 percent lead over Charlie King among likely voters, with 58 percent undecided.

In the Democratic primary for State Comptroller, Alan Hevesi has a 39 - 16 percent lead over William Mulrow, with 45 percent undecided.

"While 'undecided' is the big winner in these largely overlooked races, Mehiel edges King in the Lieutenant Governor's race and former New York City Comptroller Alan Hevesi rides his name recognition to a lead in the State Comptroller's race," Carroll said.

"But the numbers show those races aren't much more than an afterthought which could go either way."

From August 26 - September 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 452 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, would you vote for H.Carl McCall or Andrew Cuomo? (If undecided/someone else: As of today do you lean more to H. Carl McCall or Andrew Cuomo?)

                      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS            (Without
                      Tot     Men     Women   Wht     Blk          Leaners)


McCall 53% 62% 46% 50% 70% 47% Cuomo 31 26 34 34 14 25

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 3 DK/NA 15 11 18 14 16 25

2. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the primary?

                          LIKELY................
                          McCall      Cuomo
                          supporters  supporters


Very sure 73% 53% Might change 24 44 DK/NA 2 2

3. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice) or more a vote against (other candidate)?

                          LIKELY................
                          McCall      Cuomo
                          supporters  supporters


For your candidate 80% 80% Against other candidate 14 12 DK/NA 5 8

4. Is your opinion of H.Carl McCall favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...
                      Tot     Men     Women   Wht     Blk


Favorable 50% 57% 45% 49% 63% Unfavorable 5 7 3 6 3 Mixed 16 15 17 19 8 Hvn't hrd enough 28 21 32 26 20 REFUSED 2 - 3 - 5

5. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...
                      Tot     Men     Women   Wht     Blk


Favorable 33% 36% 32% 37% 27% Unfavorable 14 19 10 15 13 Mixed 30 23 35 28 35 Hvn't hrd enough 21 22 21 20 20 REFUSED 2 - 2 - 4

6. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...
                      Tot     Men     Women   Wht     Blk


Favorable 36% 37% 36% 42% 17% Unfavorable 24 26 23 20 37 Mixed 37 36 37 38 36 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 - 6 REFUSED 1 - 2 - 4

7a. (If McCall voter) If H. Carl McCall loses the Democratic primary for Governor, who would you vote for in the general election for Governor in November? Would you vote for George Pataki, the Republican or Andrew Cuomo, the Democrat?

                      McCall 
                      Voters                        


Pataki 36% Cuomo 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 DK/NA 13

7b. (If Cuomo voter) If Andrew Cuomo loses the Democratic primary for Governor, who would you vote for in the general election for Governor in November? Would you vote for George Pataki, the Republican or H. Carl McCall, the Democrat?

                      Cuomo 
                      Voters                        


Pataki 39% McCall 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 7 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 12

8. If the Democratic primary for state comptroller were being held today, would you vote for Bill Mulrow or Alan Hevesi?(If undecided/someone else: As of today do you lean more to Mulrow or Hevesi?)

                      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...
                      Tot     Men     Women   Wht     Blk


Mulrow 16% 20% 13% 16% 15% Hevesi 39 42 37 42 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 45 38 49 42 45

9. If the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor were being held today, would you vote for Charlie King or Dennis Mehiel? (If undecided/someone else: As of today do you lean more to King or Mehiel?)

                      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...
                      Tot     Men     Women   Wht     Blk


King 17% 21% 14% 16% 19% Mehiel 24 24 24 27 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - - - DK/NA 58 54 61 57 59