September 25, 2002 - Pataki Tops McCall 46 - 35 Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Golisano Takes Equal Bite Out Of Both Candidates
Republican Gov. George Pataki holds a 46 - 35 percent lead over State Comptroller H. Carl McCall among New York State likely voters, with 14 percent for Independence Party candidate Thomas Golisano, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is the first look at likely voters, including those leaning towards a candidate, considered a more accurate measure than registered voters in the final weeks of a campaign.

Among New York State registered voters, Gov. Pataki tops McCall 47 - 30 percent with 13 percent for Golisano.

This compares to a July 2 poll of registered voters by the independent Quinnipiac University, where Pataki beat McCall 53 - 26 percent, with 7 percent for Golisano.

"It's a double-digit lead for Gov. Pataki among likely voters, the first time we've looked at this select group. To compare apples to apples, Comptroller McCall has gained some ground among registered voters compared to the July 2 poll of this group," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In a theoretical matchup of just Pataki and McCall, without Golisano, Pataki wins 52 - 36 percent, showing Golisano is drawing support equally from both candidates.

"The pundits said Golisano would hurt Pataki, but both Pataki and McCall lose about the same when the Rochester billionaire is in the mix," Carroll said.

Among registered voters, McCall has gained among Democrats, who back him 54 - 25 percent, and black voters, who back him 75 - 18 percent.

Pataki leads 79 - 6 percent among Republicans and 47 - 21 percent among independent voters, with 22 percent for Golisano. Upstate non-urban registered voters back Pataki 48 - 20 percent, with 21 percent for Golisano. In upstate cities, Pataki leads McCall 36 - 32 percent, with 20 percent for Golisano.

In Democratic New York City, Pataki tops McCall 45 - 39 percent, with 8 percent for Golisano.

By a 62 - 26 percent margin, New York State registered voters approve of the job Pataki is doing as Governor, compared to his 66 - 18 percent approval July 2.

Pataki has a 47 - 18 percent favorability rating among registered voters, with 27 percent mixed and 7 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. This is little changed from July 2.

McCall's 30 - 8 percent favorability rating, with 19 percent mixed and 42 percent who haven't heard enough, is up from his 23 - 6 percent favorability July 2, when 54 percent said they hadn't heard enough to form an opinion.

Golisano has a negative 15 - 18 percent favorability, with 18 percent mixed and 48 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Since Pataki became Governor in 1995, things in New York State have gotten better, 36 percent of registered voters say, while 20 percent say they've gotten worse and 40 percent say they've stayed the same.

From September 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,298 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey includes 936 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Approve 62% 50% 62% 60% 72% 86% 47% 63% 66% 42% 63% 61% Disapprove 26 37 25 28 18 9 40 21 23 41 26 26 DK/NA 12 13 12 13 10 6 13 16 11 16 10 13



6. Is your opinion of Governor George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 47% 33% 48% 49% 53% 71% 30% 50% 50% 32% 52% 44% Unfavorable 18 16 20 19 14 5 27 15 16 28 19 17 Mixed 27 40 27 24 26 19 32 31 28 27 24 31 Hvn't hrd enough 7 11 5 7 6 4 9 4 5 13 5 8 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 1



7. Is your opinion of State Comptroller H.Carl McCall favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 30% 29% 23% 31% 37% 20% 40% 26% 27% 46% 29% 31% Unfavorable 8 3 9 7 9 14 4 8 9 - 9 6 Mixed 19 16 22 20 17 22 18 19 20 22 21 18 Hvn't hrd enough 42 50 45 41 36 43 37 45 43 32 40 44 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 1



8. Is your opinion of businessman Thomas Golisano favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 15% 20% 19% 11% 11% 13% 14% 20% 17% 8% 16% 13% Unfavorable 18 17 21 15 21 25 17 13 21 8 19 18 Mixed 18 22 20 12 20 16 18 18 19 16 18 18 Hvn't hrd enough 48 40 39 59 47 45 49 49 41 67 47 49 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 - 1 - 1 2



10. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat, George Pataki the Republican, and Thomas Golisano the independent for whom would you vote?

(If undecided q10) As of today, do you lean more to McCall, Pataki, or Golisano?

                 LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners)...........................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


McCall 35% 32% 22% 48% 34% 7% 63% 28% 25% 86% 34% 37% Pataki 46 36 51 42 53 79 22 47 52 11 48 45 Golisano 14 29 22 6 9 10 12 22 17 1 15 13

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 5 5 4 3 2 4 5 1 4 5

10. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat, George Pataki the Republican, and Thomas Golisano the independent for whom would you vote?

                 LIKELY VOTERS(Does not include Leaners)...................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


McCall 34% 32% 21% 47% 32% 7% 62% 26% 24% 86% 33% 35% Pataki 45 35 49 39 53 78 19 46 51 11 47 43 Golisano 13 29 21 6 9 10 12 21 17 1 14 13

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - - - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 DK/NA 7 4 8 7 6 4 6 7 7 2 5 8



11. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the election?

              REGISTERED.....................  LIKELY.........................
              McCall     Pataki     Golisano   McCall     Pataki     Golisano
              supporter  supporter  supporter  supporter  supporter  supporter


Very sure 63% 68% 47% 67% 76% 52% Might change 34 30 52 31 23 47 DK/NA 3 1 1 2 1 1



12. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for your candidate, or more a vote against the other candidates?

              REGISTERED.....................  LIKELY.........................
              McCall     Pataki     Golisano   McCall     Pataki     Golisano
              supporter  supporter  supporter  supporter  supporter  supporter


For your cand 69% 82% 61% 70% 87% 69% Against other candidates 24 12 30 24 8 27 DK/NA 7 6 9 5 5 4



10. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat, George Pataki the Republican, and Thomas Golisano the independent for whom would you vote?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


McCall 30% 32% 20% 39% 28% 6% 54% 21% 22% 75% 29% 32% Pataki 47 36 48 45 55 79 25 47 52 18 49 45 Golisano 13 20 21 8 9 10 12 22 16 3 14 12

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - - - - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 8 9 9 7 7 5 6 9 9 3 7 9



10a. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat, George Pataki the Republican, and Thomas Golisano the independent for whom would you vote?

(If undecided q10) As of today, do you lean more to McCall, Pataki, or Golisano?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS(Includes Leaners).......................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


McCall 31% 32% 21% 40% 30% 6% 56% 23% 23% 75% 29% 33% Pataki 49 39 51 46 56 81 27 49 54 18 51 47 Golisano 14 20 22 8 9 10 12 23 17 3 15 12

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - - - - - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 5 7 6 5 5 3 4 5 6 3 4 6

9. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat and George Pataki the Republican for whom would you vote?
                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


McCall 36% 39% 29% 43% 31% 8% 60% 30% 29% 71% 34% 37% Pataki 52 45 54 49 60 84 30 54 58 22 54 50

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 4 2 - 1 2 3 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 12 10 6 7 6 6 10 9 5 8 9

24. Since George Pataki became Governor in January 1995, do you feel that things in New York State have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?

                 REGISTERED VOTERS.........................................
                      UpState..
                 Tot  Urbn Othr NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Better 36% 27% 33% 40% 38% 58% 23% 33% 37% 23% 40% 32% Worse 20 26 25 18 15 7 28 22 20 30 22 19 About the same 40 42 39 38 43 32 45 42 40 44 36 43 DK/NA 4 5 3 4 3 2 4 3 4 2 2 5