October 16, 2002 - McCall Stumbles, Pataki Widens Likely Voter Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hevesi Has Narrow Lead In Comptroller's Race
Democratic Comptroller H. Carl McCall is losing ground among New York State likely voters. Republican Gov. George Pataki now leads McCall 47 - 31 percent, with 18 percent for Independence Party candidate Thomas Golisano, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This survey includes those leaning towards a candidate.

In a September 25 survey of likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac University, Pataki was ahead of McCall 46 - 35 percent with 14 percent for Golisano.

Pataki leads McCall 79 - 4 percent among likely Republican voters with 14 percent for Golisano, and 46 - 22 percent among independent voters, with 28 percent for Golisano. McCall leads 56 - 26 percent among Democrats, with 12 percent for Golisano.

In heavily Democratic New York City, McCall leads Pataki 48 - 38 percent, while the Republican has commanding leads upstate and in the suburbs.

"How can a Democrat hope to win with such a small lead in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City? That's what McCall's numbers look like and they don't look good. McCall is losing ground, with voters shifting to Golisano," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"While Golisano is gaining, it's good news for Pataki. In the last three weeks, the Republican incumbent has expanded his lead from 11 to 16 points."

Two out of every three likely voters - 66 percent - say they've read or heard something about McCall writing letters on state stationary for relatives seeking jobs.

Of that group, 22 percent say they are less likely to vote for McCall because of the issue; 6 percent say they are more likely and 68 percent say it does not influence their vote.

"The 'lettergate' controversy has hurt McCall. Two-thirds of New York voters know about it and two-thirds of those who know say 'so what?' But McCall is showing a weak favorability rating and he's losing support," Carroll said.

Pataki has a 50 - 17 percent favorability rating among likely voters, with 29 percent mixed and 3 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

McCall has a 30 - 25 percent favorability rating, with 28 percent mixed and 16 percent who haven't heard enough. This is down from a 36 - 9 percent favorability in the September 25 Quinnipiac University poll.

Golisano has a split 23 - 24 percent favorability, with 26 percent mixed and 24 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Comptroller - Attorney General

In their race for State Comptroller, Democrat Alan Hevesi leads Republican John Faso 44 - 36 percent, compared to Hevesi's 50 - 30 percent lead in the September 26 Quinnipiac University poll.

"The Comptroller's race looked like a Hevesi walk-away. Now, the Democrat is hearing some footsteps," Carroll said.

Democratic incumbent State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer leads Republican challenger Dora Irizarry 64 - 20 percent.

From October 8 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 621 New York State likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201

1. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Favorable 50% 76% 35% 47% 54% 47% 46% Unfavorable 17 6 23 17 16 17 21 Mixed 29 18 35 31 24 33 29 Hvn't hrd enough 3 - 5 3 4 2 4 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 45% 44% 44% 45% 65% Unfavorable 21 19 20 19 8 Mixed 28 33 31 29 24 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 7 1 REFUSED 4 2 3 - 1



2. Is your opinion of H.Carl McCall favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Favorable 30% 12% 46% 24% 28% 31% 39% Unfavorable 25 45 11 23 29 20 19 Mixed 28 27 24 35 24 32 31 Hvn't hrd enough 16 14 18 16 15 17 7 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 4 1 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 27% 29% 28% 39% 21% Unfavorable 23 31 29 11 34 Mixed 29 24 26 31 27 Hvn't hrd enough 16 14 15 17 15 REFUSED 5 1 2 2 3



3. Is your opinion of Thomas Golisano favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Favorable 23% 21% 20% 28% 26% 19% 19% Unfavorable 24 34 22 19 27 22 25 Mixed 26 28 25 26 25 27 26 Hvn't hrd enough 24 15 32 22 18 30 29 REFUSED 3 3 1 5 4 1 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 27% 34% 32% 13% 19% Unfavorable 30 23 25 22 27 Mixed 31 30 31 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 11 41 24 REFUSED 2 - 1 2 6



4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat, George Pataki the Republican, and Thomas Golisano the independent for whom would you vote?

(If undecided q4) As of today, do you lean more to McCall, Pataki, or Golisano?

                    LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners).......................
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


McCall 31% 4% 56% 22% 27% 34% 42% Pataki 47 79 26 46 47 47 39 Golisano 18 14 12 28 22 14 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 6 5 4 6 5

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

McCall 24% 26% 25% 48% 20% Pataki 44 42 42 38 64 Golisano 27 25 26 9 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 7 5 2



5. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the election?

                     LIKELY.........................
                     McCall     Pataki     Golisano
                     supporter  supporter  supporter


Very sure 73% 79% 56% Might change 27 20 43 DK/NA - 1 2



6. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for your candidate, or more a vote against the other candidates?

                     LIKELY.........................
                     McCall     Pataki     Golisano
                     supporter  supporter  supporter


For candidate 71% 90% 68% Against candidates 22 8 25 DK/NA 7 2 7



7. (If Golisano voter) What if Thomas Golisano were not running? If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were H. Carl McCall the Democrat and George Pataki the Republican for whom would you vote?

                    Golisano
                    Voters


McCall 33% Pataki 46

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 DK/NA 17



8. Have you heard or read anything about McCall writing letters on state stationary on behalf of relatives seeking jobs?

                    LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 66% 64% 62% 69% 69% 62% 72% No 34 36 36 30 30 37 28 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 1 -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes 49% 56% 54% 78% 70% No 50 44 46 19 30 DK/NA 1 - - 2 -



9. (If 'yes' q8) How will this influence your vote for governor this year? Will it make you more likely to vote for McCall, less likely to vote for McCall, or won't it have much effect one way or the other?

                    LIKELY VOTERS(Heard or read about letters).............
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


More likely 6% 1% 13% 2% 6% 6% 11% Less likely 22 35 10 29 26 18 16 Not much effect 68 64 75 61 64 71 69 DK/NA 4 - 1 8 4 4 4

UpState NYC Sub

More likely 4% 11% 2% Less likely 24 12 34 Not much effect 70 72 59 DK/NA 2 5 4



10. If the election for state attorney general were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and Dora Irizarry the Republican for whom would you vote?

(If undecided q10) As of today, do you lean more to Spitzer or Irizarry?

                    LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners).......................


Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds

Spitzer 64% 32% 85% 65% 64% 64% 66% Irizarry 20 44 4 21 21 18 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 16 24 11 14 15 17 15

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 58% 62% 61% 74% 56% Irizarry 26 23 24 8 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 14 15 15 18 17



11. If the election for state comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Alan Hevesi the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?

(If undecided q11) As of today, do you lean more to Hevesi or Faso?

                    LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners).......................
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Hevesi 44% 9% 74% 38% 38% 51% 56% Faso 36 72 10 39 42 30 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 19 19 15 23 19 19 17

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Hevesi 30% 30% 30% 66% 42% Faso 39 45 43 21 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - DK/NA 32 25 27 11 15