December 19, 2002 - Bush, Pataki Approval At Pre-September 11 Levels, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Vs. Sen. Clinton Would Be Close In New York
New York State voters approve 58 - 31 percent of the job Gov. George Pataki is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is down from the 81 - 12 percent approval for Gov. Pataki measured in an October 2, 2001, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, and comparable to a 56 - 30 percent approval on June 26, 2001.

President George W. Bush has a 51 - 42 percent approval, down from 82 - 15 percent approval October 2, 2001, but better than his negative 44 - 47 percent rating June 28, 2001.

New York State voters split 46 - 44 percent on whether President Bush should keep Vice President Dick Cheney on the 2002 reelection ticket.

If Bush replaces Cheney, New Yorkers split 45 - 46 percent on whether Pataki should be the running mate.

"New Yorkers still like the job Gov. Pataki is doing in Albany, but he's slipped back to his pre-9/11 job approval. Voters split down the middle over whether their Governor should go to Washington," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Next question: What will Pataki do? Four more years in Albany, most New Yorkers think."

Pataki will serve his full third term, 85 percent of voters expect.

A total of 51 percent of New York voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state today, with 48 percent who are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." This is the lowest rating since Quinnipiac University began measuring satisfaction in New York in December, 1997.

Voters give Pataki negative approval ratings for his handling of key issues:
  • 35 - 53 percent for his handling of the state budget;
  • 40 - 51 percent for his handling of taxes;
  • 38 - 53 percent for his handling of the economy and jobs.
Pataki gets a 46 - 46 percent split for his handling of education.

Voters say 64 - 32 percent that Pataki has strong leadership qualities and 59 - 29 percent that he is honest and trustworthy.

"The same voters who think Pataki is doing a decent job overall give him low marks on key pocketbook issues," Carroll said. "Those character traits - that he's honest and a strong leader - are helping Pataki overcome low approval ratings." Presidential Matchups

Former Vice President Al Gore would have given President Bush a run for his money in New York State, with voters splitting 48 - 47 percent in an early look at the 2004 race.

Sen. Hillary Clinton trails Bush 48 - 45 percent.

Among Democrats, Gore led the possible pack with 40 percent, followed by Sen. Clinton with 24 percent and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 11 percent. No other Democratic contender broke out of single digits.

From December 9 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 999 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The survey includes 382 Democrats with a margin of error of 5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.


For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 58% 78% 47% 53% 63% 53% 52% Disapprove 31 14 42 32 28 33 37 DK/NA 11 8 11 15 9 14 11

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 52% 64% 60% 50% 66% Disapprove 30 25 27 40 22 DK/NA 17 11 13 10 12



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 57% 50% 65% 55% 55% 59% 61% Disapprove 22 29 15 21 26 18 19 DK/NA 21 20 19 24 19 23 20

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 59% 49% 52% 62% 57% Disapprove 22 26 25 20 20 DK/NA 19 25 23 18 23



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 57% 36% 79% 47% 49% 63% 60% Disapprove 31 51 11 38 38 25 28 DK/NA 12 13 10 15 12 12 12

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 63% 46% 51% 66% 52% Disapprove 25 41 37 21 38 DK/NA 12 13 13 13 9



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 51% 85% 28% 47% 55% 48% 43% Disapprove 42 10 64 45 40 44 50 DK/NA 7 6 8 8 6 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 57% 60% 60% 37% 59% Disapprove 35 33 34 56 35 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 6



5. Do you think George Pataki will serve out his entire 4 year term as governor or not?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 85% 89% 84% 85% 86% 85% 86% No 7 6 7 6 6 8 7 DK/NA 8 5 8 9 8 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes 83% 88% 87% 83% 87% No 8 6 7 8 4 DK/NA 9 6 7 9 9



6. - Now I'm going to name eight Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all eight names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Former Vice President Al Gore, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, or Vermont Governor Howard Dean?

                    Democrats


Gore 40% Clinton 24 Daschle 5 Lieberman 7 Kerry 11 Gephardt 4 Edwards 2 Dean 1 DK/NA 6



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Gore 48% 10% 79% 46% 41% 54% 56% Bush 47 88 17 46 53 41 40

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE (VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2 2 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Gore 44% 32% 36% 65% 41% Bush 52 60 57 30 56

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 2 - DK/NA 3 4 4 1 1



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 45% 10% 73% 42% 36% 53% 51% Bush 48 87 21 45 56 40 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 4 1 3 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 2 4 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Clinton 48% 31% 36% 64% 29% Bush 48 61 57 29 62

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 5



9. Thinking about the next presidential election, do you think George W. Bush should keep Dick Cheney on the ticket as vice president or do you think Bush should consider replacing Cheney with a different running mate?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Keep Cheney 46% 67% 34% 43% 53% 40% 43% Replace Cheney 44 25 53 48 37 49 46 DK/NA 10 8 13 9 10 11 11

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Keep Cheney 55% 47% 49% 41% 48% Replace Cheney 35 42 40 50 40 DK/NA 11 11 11 9 12



10. Suppose Bush decides not to keep Cheney on the ticket in the next election. Would you like to see Bush select New York Governor George Pataki as his Vice Presidential running mate or not?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 45% 51% 45% 38% 43% 46% 41% No 46 43 44 50 46 45 51 DK/NA 10 6 11 11 11 9 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes 41% 45% 44% 43% 49% No 53 48 49 44 42 DK/NA 6 8 7 13 9



11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Very satisfied 7% 13% 3% 5% 8% 6% 4% Smwht satisfied 44 57 39 41 46 43 41 Smwht dissatisfied 27 19 31 31 26 28 29 Very dissatisfied 21 12 26 22 19 23 26 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Very satisfied 4% 8% 7% 5% 10% Smwht satisfied 44 47 46 36 56 Smwht dissatisfied 27 26 26 32 20 Very dissatisfied 25 18 20 27 13 DK/NA - 1 - 1 -



12. Would you say that George Pataki has strong leadership qualities or not?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 64% 80% 59% 56% 61% 67% 57% No 32 18 37 40 36 30 40 DK/NA 3 2 4 4 4 3 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes 67% 69% 69% 57% 67% No 29 28 28 38 31 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 3



13. Would you say that George Pataki is honest and trustworthy or not?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 59% 77% 51% 55% 62% 57% 58% No 29 19 35 35 31 28 29 DK/NA 11 5 14 10 7 14 13

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes 58% 65% 63% 52% 65% No 31 27 28 33 26 DK/NA 10 8 9 15 9



14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling the state budget?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 35% 53% 27% 30% 38% 32% 34% Disapprove 53 40 59 55 52 53 55 DK/NA 13 7 14 15 10 15 11

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 33% 34% 34% 33% 40% Disapprove 58 54 55 54 46 DK/NA 9 12 11 14 14



15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling education?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 46% 62% 39% 39% 49% 43% 41% Disapprove 46 32 53 51 43 48 50 DK/NA 8 6 8 10 8 9 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 50% 52% 51% 33% 57% Disapprove 42 41 41 56 37 DK/NA 8 8 8 10 7



16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling taxes?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 40% 57% 34% 33% 42% 37% 34% Disapprove 51 39 54 57 49 53 59 DK/NA 9 4 13 10 9 10 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 39% 44% 42% 31% 49% Disapprove 50 50 50 58 41 DK/NA 11 7 8 11 10



17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling the economy and jobs?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 38% 57% 29% 32% 45% 32% 37% Disapprove 53 35 63 58 47 59 56 DK/NA 9 8 7 10 8 9 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 33% 40% 38% 33% 48% Disapprove 58 54 55 57 43 DK/NA 9 6 7 10 10



Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                         App        Dis        DK/NA
                         
December 18, 2002        58%        31%        11%
September 26, 2002       62         26         12 
July 2, 2002             66         18         17
September 25, 2002       62         26         12 
July 2, 2002             66         18         17	
May 1, 2002              67         19         14 	
April 18, 2002           66         19         15	
February 27, 2002        70         18         13
January 23, 2002         70         16         14
November 14, 2001        78         12         10
October 2, 2001          81         12          7
June 26, 2001            56         30         14
April 24, 2001           58         27         15
March 28, 2001           61         24         16
February 14, 2001        57         28         15
December 14, 2000        66         23         11
August 10, 2000          61         24         15
July 13, 2000            60         27         12
June 7, 2000             62         25         13
May 16, 2000             63         27         10
May 2, 2000              58         29         12
April 6, 2000            56         31         13
March 2, 2000            57         31         12
February 10, 2000        57         32         12
January 20, 2000         60         29         11
December 14, 1999        60         29         11
November 11, 1999        60         29         12
October 5, 1999          57         31         11
September 15, 1999       60         27         12
August 2, 1999           56         34         10
July 1, 1999             54         35         11
May 24, 1999             58         32         10
April 25, 1999           57         31         12
April 15,  1999          59         31         10
March 24, 1999           60         30         11
February 24, 1999        60         27         13
February 4, 1999         64         27          8
October 28, 1998         64         25         11
October 15, 1998         63         26         11
September 27, 1998       62         26         11
June 17, 1998            64         29          7
March 25, 1998           69         24          7
February 25, 1998        70         22          8
December 10, 1997        62         30          7
September 24, 1997       60         35          6
July 22, 1997            52         41          7
April 24, 1997           54         35         11
March 4, 1997            56         34         10
October 30, 1996         53         31         16
September 22, 1996       51         35         14
June 18, 1996            46         45          9
April 28, 1996           48         40         12
March 4, 1996            47         41         12
December 11, 1995        46         40         14
November 6, 1995         42         41         18
April 27, 1995           41         40         20




Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                         App        Dis        DK/NA
                         
December 18, 2002        57%        22%        21%
September 26, 2002       58         17         25 
July 3, 2002             61         17         22
May 1, 2002              58         18         24 
April 18, 2002           60         17         23
February 27, 2002        61         16         23
January 25, 2002         63         17         21
November 14, 2001        64         16         20
October 2, 2001          69         11         19
June 28, 2001            60         18         22
April 26, 2001           61         17         22
March 28, 2001           60         18         22
February 14, 2001        56         21         23
December 13, 2000        62         19         19
May 2, 2000              52         18         30
November 11, 1999        55         19         26
September 16, 1999       55         18         27
April 15, 1999           51         22         28
March 23, 1999           52         20         28




Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                         App        Dis        DK/NA
                         
December 18, 2002        57%        31%        12%
September 26, 2002       53         35         12  
July 3, 2002             56         31         13
May 1, 2002              57         30         13 
April 18, 2002           58         28         13
February 27, 2002        58         32         10
January 25, 2002         55         31         14
November 14, 2001        54         34         13
October 2, 2001          59         28         12
June 28, 2001            52         31         17
April 26, 2001           47         34         19
March 28, 2001           40         38         23
February 14, 2001        38         30         33




Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                         App        Dis        DK/NA
                         
December 18, 2002        51%        42%         7%
September 26, 2002  	 58         36          6 
July 3, 2002             64         28          8
May 1, 2002              69         25          6 
April 22, 2002           68         27          5
February 27, 2002        74         20          6
January 25, 2002         80         16          4
November 14, 2001        82         15          3
October 2, 2001          82         14          4
June 28, 2001            44         47          9
April 26, 2001           50         40         10
March 28, 2001           48         38         15
February 14, 2001        45         30         24




In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                      Very     Smwht     Smwht     Very
                      Sat      Sat       DisSat    DisSat   DK/NA


December 18, 2002 7% 44% 27% 21% - September 26, 2002 8 54 23 14 1 January 24, 2002 12 58 21 8 1 December 27, 2000 13 57 20 8 1 March 25, 1998 12 55 23 9 1 February 25, 1998 13 60 20 7 1 December 10, 1997 9 51 27 12 1