February 6, 2000 - Clinton-Giuliani Senate Race Is Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; But Voters 50 - 31 Expect Him To Win In November
New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani clings to a narrow 45 - 42 percent lead over First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in their too-close-to-call race for the U.S. Senate, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. Ten percent are undecided.

By a wider 50 - 31 percent margin, New York State registered voters expect Giuliani to win in November. Among Clinton voters, 19 percent expect Giuliani to win. Among Giuliani voters, 6 percent expect Clinton to win. When the independent Quinnipiac College Poll asked that question in a February 23, 1999, survey, New Yorkers said 57 - 33 percent that they expected Clinton to win. In that poll, she led Giuliani 54 - 36 percent.

Most of Clinton's numbers have declined in the last 12 months, and the head-to-head numbers with Giuliani have been virtually unchanged since October.

From February 2 - 5, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,072 New York State registered voters. They survey has a margin of error of 3 percent.

"Today's big show by First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton may cause a thaw, but so far the Senate race seems frozen, with Mayor Giuliani holding on the high side of a sqeaker. Except for a bounce in her favorability, the indicators for Mrs. Clinton have dropped in the last 12 months and even some of her supporters think Mayor Giuliani will become Senator Giuliani," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Giuliani continues to roll up big leads upstate and in the suburbs and is even cutting into Clinton's lead in heavily Democratic New York City."

The gender gap has disappeared in this latest survey: Giuliani gets 46 percent of men to Clinton's 42 percent, and 44 percent of women to Clinton's 42 percent, too close to call.

But Giuliani gets 52 percent of the white women vote, to Clinton's 34 percent.

By a 36 - 26 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani, with 29 percent mixed and 9 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Giuliani's favorability was 41 - 30 percent in a January 20 Quinnipiac College Poll.

Clinton's favorability is 35 - 30 percent, with 29 percent mixed and 5 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is her best favorability rating since June 30, 1999.

Looking at Hillary Clinton's characteristics and qualities, New York voters say:
  • 72 - 21 percent that she has strong leadership qualities;
  • 49 - 38 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
  • 59 - 35 percent that she "cares about the needs and problems of people like you;"
  • 42 - 48 that she understands the issues and problems facing New York State;
  • 70 - 24 that she has the personality to be an effective U.S. Senator:
  • 94 - 4 that she is very intelligent. Looking at Giuliani, voters say:
  • 81 - 14 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;
  • 58 - 28 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 57 - 35 percent that he "cares about the needs and problems of people like you;"
  • 73 - 20 that he understands the issues and problems facing New York State;
  • 58 - 32 that he has the personality to be an effective U.S. Senator:
  • 83 - 10 that he is very intelligent.
By 46 - 54 percent margin, New York voters say it "bothers" them that Clinton is running for the Senate from New York even though she is not from New York.

"The good news for the Mayor is that New Yorkers do not buy the argument that he's too belligerent to work with 99 other Senators," Carroll said.

"The bad news for the First Lady is that the move to Chappaqua has not convinced voters that she understands New York issues and problems nor convinced almost half the voters who are `bothered' that she's not from New York."

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (2030 287-5201.

1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


A lot 32% 24% 41% 33% 35% 31% 29% 35% 28% Some 35 39 29 34 36 36 34 35 34 Only a little 23 24 20 23 19 23 24 20 25 None at all 11 13 10 10 10 10 13 10 12 DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



3. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 35% 29% 50% 28% 11% 58% 28% 35% 35% Unfavorable 30 33 22 35 60 8 32 33 27 Mixed 29 31 23 33 26 27 33 26 31 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 5 5 3 5 6 5 5 REFUSED - 1 - - - - - - 1



4. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 36% 33% 33% 43% 62% 22% 34% 38% 34% Unfavorable 26 18 41 20 6 40 22 26 26 Mixed 29 31 22 35 21 30 33 29 30 Hvn't hrd enough 9 17 3 2 10 6 11 7 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 - 1 -



5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Rodham Clinton 42% 37% 57% 32% 10% 68% 36% 42% 42% Giuliani 45 48 34 54 84 20 47 46 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 - 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 10 11 6 12 5 10 12 9 10



6. Who do you think would win the Senate election this year if the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Rodham Clinton 31% 28% 40% 24% 13% 44% 28% 33% 29% Giuliani 50 50 40 60 75 35 50 50 49 DK/NA 20 21 20 17 12 21 21 17 22



7. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Hillary Rodham Clinton or not?

Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 59% 53% 67% 56% 34% 79% 56% 55% 62% No 35 39 27 40 59 17 38 38 33 DK/NA 6 8 6 4 8 5 6 7 5



8. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- has strong leadership qualities or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 72% 74% 76% 63% 56% 82% 70% 66% 76% No 21 18 18 30 34 10 23 25 18 DK/NA 7 8 6 7 9 7 7 8 6



9. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- is honest and trustworthy or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 49% 47% 58% 44% 26% 71% 44% 49% 50% No 38 40 31 45 63 15 45 40 37 DK/NA 12 13 12 11 11 14 11 11 13



10. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- understands the issues and problems facing New York State or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 42% 36% 56% 35% 17% 63% 37% 42% 42% No 48 53 35 54 75 27 51 48 47 DK/NA 10 11 9 11 8 10 12 10 10



11. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- has the personality to be an effective United States Senator or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 70% 67% 75% 69% 49% 83% 71% 69% 71% No 24 27 20 25 44 11 25 25 24 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 7 6 4 6 6



12. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- is very intelligent or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 94% 93% 95% 92% 88% 98% 94% 93% 94% No 4 4 3 6 10 1 4 5 4 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 2



13. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Rudolph Giuliani or not?

Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 57% 55% 47% 71% 79% 43% 57% 57% 56% No 35 29 50 26 14 48 34 36 33 DK/NA 8 16 3 3 7 9 9 6 10



14. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- has strong leadership qualities or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 81% 83% 75% 88% 93% 73% 84% 83% 80% No 14 9 22 11 4 22 12 14 14 DK/NA 5 8 3 1 3 5 4 3 6



15. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- is honest and trustworthy or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 58% 59% 49% 68% 81% 45% 58% 58% 58% No 28 20 43 23 9 42 26 28 28 DK/NA 14 21 9 9 10 14 17 14 14



16. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- understands the issues and problems facing New York State or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 73% 71% 68% 82% 89% 63% 73% 72% 74% No 20 20 27 13 7 30 19 21 20 DK/NA 7 9 5 6 4 6 7 7 7



17. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- has the personality to be an effective United States Senator or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 58% 64% 45% 67% 83% 42% 61% 59% 58% No 32 21 49 28 10 48 29 33 31 DK/NA 10 15 6 5 8 9 10 8 11



18. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- is very intelligent or not?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 83% 82% 82% 85% 93% 77% 83% 87% 79% No 10 7 14 11 2 16 9 7 13 DK/NA 7 11 3 4 5 7 7 6 7



19. Does Hillary Rodham Clinton's running for United States Senate in New York without being from New York bother you or not bother you?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Bothers me 46% 52% 32% 53% 76% 28% 46% 44% 47% No/Doesn't bother me 54 47 67 47 23 71 54 55 52 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 -



21. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 38% 30% 52% 35% 15% 60% 32% 42% 35% Unfavorable 33 41 21 37 65 10 38 34 33 Mixed 26 26 26 28 18 28 28 22 30 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 -