February 10, 2000 - Gore Surges Among New York Democrats, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; McCain Gains On Bush, Runs Best Against Gore Or Bradley
Vice President Al Gore has broken out of a tie with former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley in a New York State Democratic Primary and now leads 56 - 32 percent, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. In a January 19 Quinnipiac College poll, Gore had 44 percent of registered Democrats to Bradley's 39 percent, a statistical tie.

Arizona Sen. John McCain now trails Texas Gov. George W. Bush 44 - 37 percent among New York Republican voters, closing the 47 - 28 percent lead Bush had January 19. Steve Forbes gets 4 percent, tied with Alan Keyes.

In possible general election matchups in New York State:
  • Gore beats Bush 53 - 37 percent;
  • Bradley beats Bush 53 - 34 percent;
  • Gore gets 46 percent to McCain's 42 percent, too close to call;
  • Bradley gets 43 percent to McCain's 40 percent, also too close to call.
From February 5 - 9, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,197 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 481 registered Democrats, with a margin of error for that group of +/- 4.5 percent, and 357 Republicans, with a margin of error of 5.2 percent.

"Sen. Bradley's hopes in New York were pinned on a stronger showing in New Hampshire and a surge of media interest focusing on his glory days with the Knicks. Instead, McCain has stolen the ball from Bradley, grabbed all the headlines and is threatening to slam dunk Bush," said Quinnipiac College Political Science Professor Scott McLean.

Looking at Gore and Bradley's characteristics, New York Democrats say:
  • 70 - 16 percent that Gore would do a better job getting things done in Washington;
  • 72 - 20 percent that Gore has a better chance of winning in November;
  • 47 - 33 percent that Gore has a better vision for the country's future;
  • 60 - 20 percent that Gore will do a better job keeping the economy strong;
  • 44 - 38 percent that Bradley is more in touch with the average American than Gore;
  • 39 percent that Gore is someone your can trust and 36 percent that Bradley can be trusted:
  • 41 - 18 percent, with 39 percent undecided, that Gore has a better health care plan.
Looking at Bush and McCain's characteristics, New York Republicans say:
  • 47 - 36 percent that Bush would do a better job getting things done in Washington;
  • 61 - 25 percent that Bush has a better chance of winning in November;
  • 40 percent that Bush has a better vision for the country's future and 38 percent that McCain has a better vision, a tie;
  • 44 - 26 percent that Bush will do a better job keeping the economy strong;
  • 48 - 34 percent that McCain is more in touch with the average American than Bush;
  • 38 percent that McCain is someone your can trust and 34 percent that Bush can be trusted:
  • 48 - 36 percent that Bush is better prepared to be President;
  • 41 - 28 percent that McCain is closer to their view on campaign finance reform;
  • 32 - 24 percent, with 43 percent undecided, that Bush has a better tax plan.
"Democrats think Gore can get things done in Washington and keep the economy strong. The surprising thing is that Bradley is not ahead on the trust issue," Dr. McLean said. "When Republicans compare Bush to McCain, they see Bush as effective and prepared to lead. Most important, Bush still looks more like a winner than McCain. But don't underestimate the voters' desire for a trustworthy man of the people."

By a 31 - 28 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Gore, with 29 percent mixed and 11 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are:
                      Favorable    Unfavorable    Mixed    No Opinion
Bill Bradley             31            12          27           28
George W. Bush           26            40          25            9
John McCain              39            11          22           28



The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 287-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                  Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Approve 57% 59% 49% 63% 80% 43% 56% 62% 53% Disapprove 32 29 36 29 14 44 30 28 35 DK/NA 12 12 15 8 6 13 14 10 13



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                   Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Approve 66% 59% 76% 66% 40% 86% 65% 65% 68% Disapprove 30 36 21 31 57 11 31 32 29 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 3 3 5 3 4



4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                   Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


A lot 37% 31% 40% 43% 37% 38% 36% 42% 32% Some 39 44 36 35 40 36 42 38 40 Only a little 20 20 19 18 18 21 18 16 22 None at all 5 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 6 DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



5. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men   Wom


Favorable 31% 28% 37% 29% 9% 52% 26% 31% 31% Unfavorable 28 32 23 30 58 9 29 33 24 Mixed 29 29 28 32 23 29 34 27 31 Haven't hrd enough 11 11 12 9 9 10 10 8 13 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - - - 1



6. Is your opinion of Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Favorable 31% 25% 33% 40% 26% 35% 33% 38% 26% Unfavorable 12 14 12 10 15 11 10 14 11 Mixed 27 29 26 27 28 25 31 27 28 Haven't hrd enough 28 32 28 23 29 28 26 21 34 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1



7. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Favorable 26% 31% 19% 25% 51% 10% 23% 29% 23% Unfavorable 40 34 46 41 15 59 39 40 40 Mixed 25 25 24 26 27 22 28 24 26 Haven't hrd enough 9 9 10 8 7 9 9 7 11 REFUSED - - 1 - - 1 - - 1



8. Is your opinion of Steve Forbes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men   Wom


Favorable 8% 6% 8% 11% 11% 5% 8% 12% 5% Unfavorable 38 36 39 39 34 42 39 41 35 Mixed 19 21 15 19 23 15 19 20 17 Haven't hrd enough 35 36 38 29 31 36 34 25 42 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 -



8b. Is your opinion of Alan Keyes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot    Ups    NYC    Sub    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men   Wom


Favorable 9% 9% 8% 9% 13% 6% 8% 11% 6% Unfavorable 20 17 21 22 16 24 18 21 18 Mixed 10 8 10 12 9 9 10 10 9 Haven't hrd enough 61 65 60 56 60 60 62 55 66 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 -



9. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 39% 40% 31% 48% 48% 30% 45% 46% 33% Unfavorable 11 8 15 10 7 14 9 11 11 Mixed 22 25 22 17 20 24 22 24 20 Haven't hrd enough 28 27 32 25 25 31 23 19 35 REFUSED - - - - - 1 - - -



10. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 53% 46% 62% 51% 12% 84% 50% 51% 55% Bush 37 42 28 39 80 9 36 41 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 8 6 6 5 5 8 5 8



11. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley 53% 42% 65% 55% 18% 79% 53% 52% 53% Bush 34 43 24 33 70 12 32 38 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 9 11 6 9 10 5 11 6 11



12. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 46% 40% 60% 39% 17% 72% 38% 39% 52% McCain 42 49 29 47 76 16 48 51 36

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 9 9 7 12 5 11 11 8 10



13. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Bradley the Democrat, and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley 43% 34% 58% 39% 16% 67% 38% 41% 45% McCain 40 47 27 45 71 18 43 46 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 13 16 10 11 10 10 15 10 15



15. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore and Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Gore 56% 53% 57% Bradley 32 39 27 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 11 6 14



16.(If Registered Republican) If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, and John McCain, for whomwould you vote?

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom


George W. Bush 44% 41% 46% Steve Forbes 4 5 3 Alan Keyes 4 5 4 John McCain 37 39 35 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 7 12



19a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley?

Can get things done in Washington...
                         Registered Democrats


Tot Men Wom

Al Gore 70% 70% 70% Bill Bradley 16 22 13 SAME(VOL) 4 5 4 DK/NA 9 3 13



20a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley? Has a better chance of beating the Republican nominee in the November general election...

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Al Gore 72% 71% 73% Bill Bradley 20 24 17 SAME(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 7 3 9



21a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley? Has a vision for the country's future...

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Al Gore 47% 43% 51% Bill Bradley 33 41 27 SAME(VOL) 7 7 6 DK/NA 13 9 16



23a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley? Is in touch with the average American...

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Al Gore 38% 37% 39% Bill Bradley 44 48 41 SAME(VOL) 6 5 7 DK/NA 11 10 13



24a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley? Is someone you can trust...

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Al Gore 39% 36% 40% Bill Bradley 36 43 30 SAME(VOL) 10 9 10 DK/NA 16 11 19
22a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley? Will keep the economy strong...

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Al Gore 60% 61% 60% Bill Bradley 20 22 18 SAME(VOL) 7 9 5 DK/NA 13 8 17



25a. (If Registered Democrat) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley? Has a better health care plan...

                         Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Al Gore 41% 41% 41% Bill Bradley 18 24 14 SAME(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 39 33 43



19b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain?

Can get things done in Washington .

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 47% 46% 49% John McCain 36 40 33 SAME(VOL) 2 4 1 DK/NA 14 10 17



27b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Is prepared to be President...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 48% 46% 49% John McCain 36 41 32 SAME(VOL) 7 6 7 DK/NA 9 6 12



20b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Has a better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the November general election...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 61% 63% 59% John McCain 25 27 23 SAME(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 12 8 15



21b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Has a vision for the country's future...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 40% 42% 38% John McCain 38 41 35 SAME(VOL) 6 5 6 DK/NA 16 12 20



23b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Is in touch with the average American...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 34% 33% 34% John McCain 48 48 49 SAME(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 15 16 14



24b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Is someone you can trust...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 34% 35% 33% John McCain 38 40 37 SAME(VOL) 9 12 7 DK/NA 19 13 24



25b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Has a better tax plan...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 32% 43% 22% John McCain 24 24 23 SAME(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 43 31 54



22b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Will keep the economy strong...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 44% 47% 41% John McCain 26 27 24 SAME(VOL) 6 7 5 DK/NA 24 18 30



26b. (If Registered Republican) Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to George W. Bush or John McCain? Comes closer to your view on the issue of campaign finance reform...

                         Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom 


George W. Bush 28% 30% 26% John McCain 41 45 37 SAME(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 31 24 36