March 1, 2000 - McCain Edges Bush Among New York Republican Voters, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Bush's Rating Among Catholics Drops
Arizona Sen. John McCain holds a narrow 47 - 40 percent lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush among likely New York Republican Primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

Vice President Al Gore holds a commanding 59 - 33 lead over former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley among likely New York Democratic Primary voters.

In a February 17 poll of likely Connecticut Republican Primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac College Poll, McCain beat Bush 52 - 39 percent. In that survey, Gore topped Bradley by a narrow 49 - 41 percent margin among likely Democratic Primary voters.

In possible general election matchups in New York State:
  • Gore beats Bush 53 - 36 percent;
  • Bradley beats Bush 51 - 35 percent;
  • Gore gets 44 percent to McCain's 43 percent, a tie;
  • McCain beats Bradley 44 - 39 percent.
From February 22 - 28, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,842 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent. The survey includes 312 likely Democratic Primary voters, with a margin of error for that group of +/- 5.6 percent, and 264 likely Republican Primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 6 percent.

"Once upon a time -- in January to be exact -- Sen. McCain was hardly a cloud on the New York Republican Party horizon. Now, he is a thunderstorm threatening to rain on Gov. Bush's parade," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"New York Republicans haven't had any serious practice with presidential primaries. So the question now is: Can the GOP organization turn out the troops for Bush March 7?"

"Sen. Bradley, the former Knick, has lost his home court advantage among New York Democrats to Vice President Gore who seems poised to score a big win," Carroll added.

By a 40 - 14 percent margin, all New York voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, with 27 percent mixed and 18 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are:
                     Favorable    Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Al Gore                 33%          28%           29%          9%
Bill Bradley            30           16            30          23
George W. Bush          24           44            25           7



Bush's favorability among all New York Catholic voters has dropped from 32 - 31 percent in a February 10 Quinnipiac College poll to a negative 26 -- 39 percent today. Bush, who had a 40 - 14 favorability rating in a March 24, 1999, Quinnipiac College Poll, has dropped in every poll since.

"Bush's favorability has dropped drastically and now he's in a 20-point hole. One factor is the drop in Catholic favorability," Carroll said.

"Bradley has a higher favorability than Gore among all voters, but Democrats give Gore a 54 - 10 percent favorability, to Bradley's 32 - 13 percent rating."

In a possible Gore-McCain face off in New York, a dead heat, men back McCain 52 - 38 percent, while women back Gore 50 - 36 percent.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 287-5201

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 65% 59% 74% 64% 40% 86% 64% 60% 69%

Disapprove 32 38 22 33 57 12 33 37 28

DK/NA 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4



8. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


A lot 42% 42% 43% 42% 47% 42% 40% 48% 37%

Some 39 40 37 41 36 40 40 36 42

Only a little 14 14 16 14 13 14 15 13 16

None at all 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 5

DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



9. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 33% 29% 41% 31% 12% 54% 27% 30% 36%

Unfavorable 28 34 18 30 52 10 29 34 23

Mixed 29 29 29 31 28 28 33 28 30

Haven't hrd enough 9 8 10 9 8 8 11 7 10

REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - - - -



10. Is your opinion of Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 30% 26% 31% 34% 23% 32% 35% 34% 26%

Unfavorable 16 19 16 12 23 13 13 18 14

Mixed 30 29 31 32 31 32 29 30 31

Haven't hrd enough 23 26 22 22 22 23 23 18 28

REFUSED - - - - - - - - -



11. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 24% 30% 17% 22% 48% 10% 21% 26% 21%

Unfavorable 44 37 54 43 16 63 46 41 46

Mixed 25 26 21 28 30 20 24 26 24

Haven't hrd enough 7 6 7 6 6 6 9 6 8

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 1



12. Is your opinion of Alan Keyes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 10% 11% 7% 11% 15% 4% 13% 14% 6%

Unfavorable 19 15 23 19 18 24 14 22 16

Mixed 10 11 10 10 13 9 9 11 10

Haven't hrd enough 60 63 59 59 54 62 63 53 67

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1



13. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 40% 42% 32% 46% 41% 36% 45% 49% 32%

Unfavorable 14 15 18 10 15 17 11 14 15

Mixed 27 27 28 27 28 27 28 25 29

Haven't hrd enough 18 16 22 16 15 19 17 12 23

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 1 1



14. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 53% 44% 67% 49% 16% 82% 49% 47% 58% Bush 36 45 24 38 75 10 34 42 31

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 2 1 6 4 2 DK/NA 7 6 6 8 6 6 7 5 8



15. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Bradley the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley 51% 41% 64% 50% 18% 74% 51% 48% 53% Bush 35 43 24 37 73 13 31 40 31

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 2 2 4 4 4 4 DK/NA 9 10 7 10 6 7 11 7 10



16. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 44% 34% 62% 40% 17% 72% 35% 38% 50% McCain 43 52 26 51 71 19 50 52 36

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 2 2 5 1 3 2 4 DK/NA 8 8 9 6 6 8 10 6 10



17. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Bradley the Democrat, and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley 39% 28% 55% 38% 16% 60% 33% 35% 43% McCain 44 53 28 47 68 25 46 51 38

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 5 2 4 4 4 3 5 DK/NA 12 12 10 12 10 9 15 9 14



19. If the Democratic Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore and Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                         Likely Primary
                         Voters


Gore 59% Bradley 33

DK/NA 7



21. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                                 Gore    Bradley
                         Tot     Voters  Voters


Made up 65% 69% 57%

Might change 34 30 42

DK/NA 1 1 1



20. If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, Alan Keyes, and John McCain, for whom would you vote?
                         Likely Primary
                         Voters


George W. Bush 40% Alan Keyes 4 John McCain 47

DK/NA 8



21. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                                 Bush    McCain
                         Tot     Voters  Voters


Made up 67% 65% 71%

Might change 33 35 29

DK/NA - - -