May 1, 2000 - Clinton And Giuliani Tied In NY Senate Race, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; No Noticeable Shift After Mayor's Cancer Announcement
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are in a neck and neck race in their U.S. Senate campaign, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. Mrs. Clinton has 46 percent to Mayor Giuliani's 44 percent.

In an April 5 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Mrs. Clinton led 46 - 43 percent, the first time she had edged ahead of the Mayor in more than six months.

Mayor Giuliani leads among men voters 48 - 41 percent, while Mrs. Clinton holds a 50 - 40 percent lead among women.

From April 24 - 30, Quinnipiac College surveyed 952 New York State registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

There was no noticeable shift in voter attitudes after Mayor Giuliani announced April 27 -- halfway through the survey -- that he had prostate cancer.

"The Senate race has been close for months, with a narrow lead switching back and forth between the two candidates. This race is still neck and neck, but Mrs. Clinton's neck is a just a little longer this month," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Beyond the compassion that everyone feels, Mayor Giuliani's prostate cancer has yet to have an impact on the Senate race."

Giuliani leads among upstate voters 49 - 39 percent, and among suburban voters 52 - 38 percent, while Clinton leads 62 - 30 percent among New York City voters.

By a 35 - 34 percent margin, voters statewide have a favorable opinion of Giuliani, with 26 percent mixed and 4 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is virtually unchanged from the April 5 Quinnipiac College poll findings.

Clinton's favorability is 40 - 36 percent, with 20 percent mixed and 3 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is up slightly from April's 36 - 36 percent rating.

A total of 62 percent of New York voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that Clinton will run for President some day. A total of 32 percent say it is "not very likely" or "not likely at all."

Giuliani is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to run for President some day, 54 percent of New Yorkers say, while 39 percent say it is "not very likely" or "not likely at all."

"Mrs. Clinton has said she will not run for President in 2004, but most New Yorkers think she'll run someday," Carroll said.

"With slightly less conviction, voters also think Giuliani will take a shot at the White House some day, also."

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 287-5201.

6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                   Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


A lot 39% 36% 41% 41% 43% 38% 37% 40% 35% 43% 36%

Some 36 36 34 37 32 34 41 37 33 32 38

Only a little 18 21 17 15 21 20 13 17 20 17 19

None at all 7 7 7 7 3 7 9 6 12 7 7

DK/NA - - - - - - - - - - -



7. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                   Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 40% 34% 49% 38% 16% 65% 33% 35% 72% 34% 45%

Unfavorable 36 39 30 38 66 13 37 41 4 41 32

Mixed 20 22 17 21 16 20 24 21 13 19 21

Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 3 3 2 2 4 3 7 4 3

DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 4 1 1



8. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                   Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Favorable 35% 35% 29% 43% 62% 21% 32% 41% 8% 39% 33%

Unfavorable 34 25 51 28 10 51 31 25 74 33 34

Mixed 26 31 20 26 23 24 32 30 11 24 28

Hvn't hrd enough 4 8 - 1 3 4 4 4 5 2 4

DK/NA 1 2 - 2 1 - 2 1 2 2 1



9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican for whom would you vote?

                   Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Clinton 46% 39% 62% 38% 14% 73% 43% 39% 86% 41% 50%

Giuliani 44 49 30 52 80 19 46 51 5 48 40

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - 1 3 2 1 3 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1

DK/NA 7 7 6 7 5 5 6 7 7 5 8



13. If Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected United States Senator from New York, how likely do you think it is that she would eventually run for President? Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

                   Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Very likely 32% 35% 26% 36% 46% 23% 33% 34% 23% 30% 34%

Smwht likely 30 32 29 29 24 34 30 30 33 31 29

Not very likely 18 17 20 18 13 21 18 18 18 19 18

Not likely at all 14 11 18 14 14 16 13 12 20 16 12

DK/NA 6 6 7 4 3 7 5 5 7 5 6



14. If Rudolph Giuliani is elected United States Senator from New York, how likely do you think it is that he would eventually run for President? Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

                   Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Wht  Blk  Men  Wom


Very likely 20% 13% 29% 18% 14% 25% 17% 15% 45% 16% 22%

Smwht likely 34 36 24 42 39 29 36 37 19 31 36

Not very likely 21 24 17 20 23 21 20 23 9 23 19

Not likely at all 18 17 22 14 16 18 18 17 24 22 15

DK/NA 8 10 8 6 8 7 9 8 3 9 8