May 16, 2000 - Clinton-Giuliani Senate Race Locked In Dead Heat, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Pataki Runs Better Against First Lady
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani remain locked in a neck and neck race in their U.S. Senate campaign, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. Mrs. Clinton has 44 percent to Mayor Giuliani's 43 percent.

Mrs. Clinton had 46 percent to Mayor Giuliani's 44 percent in a May 1 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College.

If Mrs. Clinton faced Republican Gov. George Pataki, it still would be a tight race, with Pataki getting 46 percent to Clinton's 41 percent.

A total of 88 percent of New York State voters have read or heard something about Giuliani's "marital situation."

Of that group, 78 percent say Giuliani's "handling of his marital situation," makes no difference in how they will vote, while 16 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for him and 2 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for him.

From May 10 - 15, Quinnipiac College surveyed 788 New York State registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

"Nothing seems to break the Clinton-Giuliani deadlock. Almost everyone has heard of the mayor's marital situation, but the poll numbers show precisely the same stand-off we found before all the stories and pictures," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "The Mayor lost ground from March to April after the Patrick Dorismond case, but his personal situation with cancer and his marriage have had no impact on the race."

"When he first ran in 1994, Gov. Pataki was the `ABC candidate' -- Anyone But Cuomo. Could he become the `Anyone But Clinton' candidate?" Carroll asked. "Pataki's approval is 63 - 27 percent, his highest mark since February, 1999, when he was at 64 - 27 percent. Preliminary signs show he can parlay this into a good run for the Senate."

If Joseph DioGuardi runs on the Conservative Party line, Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for Giuliani and 5 percent for DioGuardi.

"Five percent for DioGuardi doesn't seem like much, but in a close race, it could be the margin of victory for a Republican candidate," Carroll said.

If Clinton faces U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio on the Republican line, she wins 50 - 31 percent.

Giuliani leads among upstate voters 45 - 39 percent, and among suburban voters 55 - 34 percent, while Clinton leads 59 - 32 percent among New York City voters.

By a 36 - 30 percent margin, voters statewide have a favorable opinion of Giuliani, with 27 percent mixed and 6 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is up slightly from the April 5 and May 1 Quinnipiac College poll findings.

Clinton's favorability is 37 - 35 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 6 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is unchanged from the May 1 poll.

Clinton is "too liberal," 35 percent of New York voters say, while 4 percent say she is "too conservative" and 49 percent say she is "about right."

Giuliani is "too liberal," 10 percent of New York voters say, while 23 percent say he is "too conservative" and 55 percent say he is "about right." Among Republicans, 80 percent say Giuliani is "about right."

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

Effective May 30, 2000, the Quinnipiac College Poll will become the Quinnipiac University Poll.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 287-5201.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 63% 64% 58% 67% 78% 51% 62% 65% 61%

Disapprove 27 25 33 22 15 39 25 27 26

DK/NA 10 11 10 10 7 10 13 8 12



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Approve 63% 57% 76% 57% 37% 83% 64% 64% 63%

Disapprove 33 40 20 38 60 14 32 32 34

DK/NA 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 5 3



4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


A lot 46% 40% 53% 49% 50% 49% 44% 51% 43%

Some 34 38 29 32 34 32 36 31 36

Only a little 15 18 11 15 13 17 13 15 16

None at all 4 4 6 3 3 3 6 3 5

DK/NA - - 1 1 1 - 1 1 -



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Favorable 37% 34% 47% 31% 14% 61% 30% 33% 41%

Unfavorable 35 34 27 45 63 14 36 43 28

Mixed 22 23 21 20 19 19 27 18 24

Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 6 4 3 6 7 5 6

DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1



6. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Favorable 36% 32% 34% 45% 60% 21% 35% 40% 34%

Unfavorable 30 22 42 29 10 47 29 29 31

Mixed 27 34 22 21 26 26 29 26 27

Hvn't hrd enough 6 11 2 3 3 6 6 5 7

DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 1



7. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Favorable 11% 6% 13% 18% 14% 9% 12% 13% 10%

Unfavorable 5 2 8 5 2 7 6 6 4

Mixed 9 5 11 13 10 10 9 9 9

Hvn't hrd enough 72 83 66 60 72 72 68 68 74

DK/NA 3 3 2 4 2 1 5 3 4



8. Is your opinion of Governor George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Favorable 49% 49% 43% 58% 73% 32% 51% 58% 43%

Unfavorable 18 18 22 15 11 27 17 17 20

Mixed 25 27 26 22 14 32 26 20 29

Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 7 4 1 7 4 5 6

DK/NA 2 1 2 2 - 3 2 1 2



9. Is your opinion of former New York Congressman Joseph DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Favorable 2 2 1 3 5 1 2 4 1

Unfavorable 5 2 7 6 4 6 5 5 4

Mixed 7 5 10 8 8 8 7 7 8

Hvn't hrd enough 81 86 80 76 81 81 80 81 82

DK/NA 4 5 2 7 3 4 6 3 5



10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Clinton 44% 39% 59% 34% 12% 75% 37% 39% 48%

Giuliani 43 45 32 55 82 15 46 50 38

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - - 2 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 - 2 4 2 3

DK/NA 10 13 6 9 5 8 12 8 11



11. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, and Joseph DioGuardi the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Clinton 42% 37% 56% 34% 12% 73% 35% 37% 47%

Giuliani 41 41 31 53 77 16 42 47 36

DioGuardi 5 7 3 4 4 2 9 6 4

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - - 2 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 - 1 2 2 1

DK/NA 10 13 7 7 6 8 10 7 11



12. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 
 
Clinton             50%   47%   64%   38%   21%   80%   43%   44%   55%


Lazio 31 31 23 40 61 10 33 38 25

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 - 3 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3

DK/NA 14 17 9 17 15 8 17 13 15



13. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and George Pataki the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Clinton 41% 35% 56% 33% 13% 72% 34% 34% 47%

Pataki 46 49 34 57 79 19 50 54 40

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - - 2 - 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 - 2 4 2 3

DK/NA 9 13 7 7 7 7 10 9 9



15. Who do you think would win the Senate election this year if the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Clinton 39% 40% 45% 29% 20% 57% 34% 39% 38%

Giuliani 42 41 35 53 67 22 47 45 40

DK/NA 19 20 20 18 13 21 19 16 22



16. Do you think Rudolph Giuliani will or will not run for United States Senator from New York this year?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Yes/Will run 49% 53% 47% 48% 63% 40% 52% 52% 48%

No/Will not run 28 22 31 34 16 38 28 31 26

DK/NA 23 26 22 19 22 22 20 18 27



17. Do you think Rudolph Giuliani is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Too liberal 10% 8% 14% 8% 5% 15% 9% 10% 10%

Too conservative 23 17 33 20 10 39 19 23 22

About right 55 60 41 65 80 34 60 57 54

DK/NA 12 15 13 7 5 13 13 10 13



18. Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


Too liberal 35% 36% 29% 42% 59% 18% 38% 40% 32%

Too conservative 4 5 4 4 5 2 5 4 4

About right 49 47 59 41 25 74 42 43 53

DK/NA 11 13 8 13 11 6 14 12 11



19. How much have you heard or read about Rudolph Giuliani's marital situation? A lot, some, only a little or nothing at all?

                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom 


A lot 38% 22% 58% 40% 32% 45% 38% 43% 35%

Some 28 32 23 30 34 25 29 26 30

Only a little 22 29 13 23 25 20 20 21 23

Nothing at all 10 17 6 6 8 8 11 9 11

DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1



20. (If heard or read about Giuliani's marital situation) Does Rudolph Giuliani's handling of his marital situation make you more likely to vote for him for Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?

                    Heard or read about Giuliani's marital situation


Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

More likely 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%

Less likely 16 15 19 15 10 21 17 15 17

No difference 78 79 77 78 83 75 78 79 78

DK/NA 3 4 2 4 4 2 2 3 4