July 12, 2000 - Clinton, Lazio Can't Break Tie In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; `Carpet-Bagger' Tag Is Her Biggest Problem With Voters
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio are locked in a 45 - 45 percent dead heat in their race for the U.S. Senate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a June 7 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Mrs. Clinton and Rep. Lazio were locked in a 44 - 44 percent tie.

Among upstate voters, who typically vote Republican, Lazio gets 47 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, a narrow lead. New York City voters back Clinton 61 - 30 percent, while suburban voters go with Lazio 59 - 33 percent.

From July 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,086 New York State registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

"If suburbia is the battleground in the Senate race, there's good news for Rep. Lazio. Both candidates have suburban addresses, he's lived in Long Island a lot longer than she's lived in Westchester. And he's winning big in the suburbs, with a 26 - point lead, up from a 16-point lead when he first entered the race," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Some political pundits say Mrs. Clinton's `outsider' issue has lost its legs. But this latest poll shows the First Lady's biggest negative is that she's a recent immigrant. Voters still are getting to know Lazio, but 5 percent say his biggest problem is that he's a Republican."

Men voters favor Lazio 52 - 40 percent, while women voters back Clinton 50 - 39 percent. Lazio edges Clinton 47 - 41 percent among white women, a critical voting bloc.

In another important voting bloc, Jewish voters back Clinton 54 - 34 percent.

In open-ended questions, where voters can give any answer, 16 percent say the thing they like most about Clinton is her "intelligence," while 10 percent say "strength/determination/ guts" and 10 percent point to her position on education.

Asked what they dislike most about Clinton, 28 percent say she is a "carpetbagger" or "not from New York," or doesn't know or care about New York issues. Another 12 percent say a "lack of honesty/integrity."

The best thing about Lazio is that he's from New York, according to 17 percent of voters, while 9 percent point to his "honesty/integrity."

On the dislike side, 5 percent dislike him most because he is a Republican, while 4 percent point to his stand on abortion and 4 percent list his lack of experience; 52 percent are undecided.

By a 31 - 13 percent margin, voters statewide have a favorable opinion of Lazio, with 17 percent mixed and 39 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. In the June 7 Quinnipiac University poll, 58 percent of voters had no opinion of Lazio.

Clinton's favorability is 34 - 40 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 3 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is unchanged from the June 7 poll findings.

"Overall, the numbers show no movement in this race. The numbers within the numbers show Lazio's campaign to establish an identity is beginning to pay off," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


A lot 42% 40% 42% 47% 49% 39% 41% 44% 41% Some 37 40 36 34 35 42 35 34 39 Only a little 15 15 16 13 13 15 17 16 14 None at all 5 5 5 5 3 4 7 6 5 DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 34% 30% 48% 26% 8% 59% 28% 29% 38% Unfavorable 40 43 27 50 78 13 39 47 35 Mixed 22 23 21 22 12 25 29 21 23 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 4 1 2 2 4 3 3 REFUSED - 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 1



6. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 31% 32% 23% 38% 58% 12% 30% 38% 25% Unfavorable 13 9 20 10 2 23 10 13 12 Mixed 17 18 16 18 11 22 17 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 39 41 40 33 29 42 42 32 44 REFUSED - - - 1 - - 1 - 1



7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican for whom would you vote?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 45% 41% 61% 33% 8% 76% 42% 40% 50% Lazio 45 47 30 59 84 16 46 52 39

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 8 10 6 6 4 7 9 6 9



8. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                         Clinton  Lazio
                         voters   voters


Made up 67% 79% Might change 32 20 DK/NA 1 1



9. Would you describe your support for Clinton/Lazio as strongly favoring her/him, or do you like Clinton/Lazio but with reservations, or do you support Clinton/Lazio because you dislike the other candidate?

                         Clinton  Lazio
                         voters   voters


Strongly favor 52% 34% Like with reservations 37 25 Dislike other candidate 6 39 DK/NA 5 2



11. I'd like to ask you about the good and bad points about Hillary Rodham Clinton. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you like most about Hillary Rodham Clinton? (Column percentages may add to more than 100% because up to three responses were allowed.)

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
 
Leadership Qualities   1%    -     1%    -     -     1%    1%    -     1%
Political Experience   3     3     3     3     1     5     4     3     3
Insider Politician/
 Good Contacts         2     1     2     2     1     2     2     2     1
Intelligent/
 Knowledgeable        16    17    16    16    10    18    21    17    16
Stand on issues        4     3     6     3     1     7     3     3     5
Stand on abortion      3     2     4     3     -     6     2     1     4
Stand on healthcare    9     8     9     9     3    13     8     7    10
Stand on education    10     7    14    10     2    18     8     7    12
Stand on women's
 issues                3     2     4     3     -     5     3     1     4
Stand on
 children's issues     6     7     6     4     3     9     5     3     8
Stand on senior's
 issues                1     1     -     -     -     1     1     1     1
Stand on economy/jobs  1     1     -     -     -     1     1     1     1
Good speaker           4     3     4     4     2     4     5     4     4
Listened to/Knows what 
 New Yorkers want      3     4     2     -     2     3     3     3     2
Believes in what
 he/she does           1     1     1     -     1     1     1     1     1
Aggressive/Fights
 for what he/she
 believes in           3     3     3     3     1     3     5     3     3
Personality/Style      1     1     1     2     2     1     1     1     2
Honesty/Integrity/
 Straightforward       4     5     4     3     3     6     5     3     5
Cares about people/
 Compassionate         3     4     3     2     2     4     4     2     4
Strength/
 Perseverance/
 Determined            9     6    12     9     7    10     8     7    10
Courage/Guts           1     1     1     1     -     -     2     -     1
Family man/Woman       2     1     2     1     2     2     1     2     2
Family values/Issues   1     2     1     1     1     2     -     1     2
Party                  3     2     6     2     -     7     1     4     3
Political Philosophy/
 Ideology              2     -     3     3     -     3     1     3     1
She's a woman          6     5     8     5     3     9     6     2     9
Family Ties            1     -     -     1     1     1     -     1     1
Stood by her man       4     6     3     1     5     4     3     5     3


Nothing Liked 16 17 13 20 33 6 14 17 16 Other 17 15 24 12 6 21 22 19 16 DK/NA 17 18 13 21 26 10 17 21 14



12. And regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you dislike most about Hillary Rodham Clinton? (Column percentages may add to more than 100% because up to three responses were allowed.)

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Lacking Political
 Experience            3%    4%    4%    3%    4%    3%    2%    4%    3%
Typical Politician/
 Too Political/Insider
 Politician            1     1     1     -     1     -     1     1     -
Stand on abortion      2     2     1     3     6     1     1     2     2
Stand on healthcare    2     2     2     3     3     1     3     3     2
Stand on gun control   1     2     -     -     1     -     1     1     -
Stand on education     1     -     -     1     -     1     1     1     1
Running negative
 campaign              1     1     -     1     1     1     -     -     1
Personality/Style      1     1     3     -     1     1     3     1     1
Lacking honesty/
 integrity            12    11    10    18    23     6    12    15    10
Arrogant               1     -     1     1     1     1     -     -     1
Power driven           2     2     1     3     4     1     1     2     2
Phony/Fake             2     1     3     3     5     1     1     1     3
Indecisive/Wishy-
 Washy                 1     -     2     -     -     2     1     -     1
Weak/Not forceful
 enough                1     -     1     1     -     1     1     1     1
Flip-Flops on
 Issues                1     -     2     1     -     1     2     1     1
Carpetbagger          24    26    17    29    28    19    28    23    25
Doesn't know/care
 about New York        4     3     3     5     5     3     5     3     5
Using NY as a
 stepping stone        2     2     2     1     2     1     2     2     2
Opportunist            4     4     5     5     6     3     5     6     3
Scandals               5     5     6     6     6     6     4     6     4
Party                  1     -     1     1     1     -     -     1     -
Political Philosophy/
 Ideology              3     3     3     3     5     1     2     6     1
Family Ties            5     8     2     5     7     3     5     6     4
Handling of
 marital problems      5     5     6     4     7     4     5     4     6
Just don't like
 her/him               2     2     2     2     3     1     2     1     3


Nothing Disliked 16 15 21 12 5 26 15 13 19 Other 13 13 12 13 17 10 12 13 13 DK/NA 19 19 20 16 12 22 19 17 19



13. Now I'd like to ask you about the good and bad points about Rick Lazio. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you like most about Rick Lazio? (Column percentages may add to more than 100% because up to three responses were allowed.)
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Political
 Experience            5%    6%    6%    3%    6%    4%    4%    5%    5%
Political Record       3     4     3     4     7     2     2     5     3
Intelligent/
 Knowledgeable         2     2     1     3     2     3     1     3     1
Stand on issues        2     2     2     2     4     -     1     2     2
Stand on abortion      2     2     2     4     3     1     4     3     2
Stand on taxes         1     2     1     1     2     1     1     1     1
Stand on
 healthcare            1     1     -     1     1     1     1     1     1
Stand on education     1     1     1     2     2     1     1     1     1
Good speaker           1     -     2     1     1     1     1     1     1
Listened to/Knows
 what New Yorkers
 want                  2     2     2     3     5     1     2     2     3
Running positive
 campaign              1     2     -     -     1     1     1     1     1
Aggressive/Fights
 for what he/she
 believes in           1     1     1     2     2     1     1     2     1
Regular person/
 Down-to-Earth         1     1     1     2     1     -     2     1     1
Enthusiastic/
 Energetic             3     3     3     3     2     2     4     5     1
Personality/Style      2     3     2     3     5     1     1     2     3
Honesty/Integrity/
 Straightforward       9     9     5    13    16     4     9     8     9
Cares about
 people/
 Compassionate         1     1     -     1     1     -     2     1     1
Strength/
 Perseverance/
 Determined            1     1     1     -     1     1     -     1     -
Family man/woman       6     7     5     5     9     6     4     4     8
Family values/
 issues                1     2     -     1     2     1     1     1     1
He's From NY          17    17    13    24    28    10    17    20    16
He's not Hillary       3     3     3     3     3     1     6     3     3
Party                  4     4     2     5    12     1     1     6     2
Political
 Philosophy/
 Ideology              4     3     3     6     8     1     4     7     2
He's young             7     9     6     6    11     6     7     7     7
Has new/fresh
 ideas                 2     2     1     2     1     2     2     3     1
Appearance/Looks       2     2     3     2     2     4     1     1     3
New candidate, no
 negative baggage      1     1     1     1     2     1     -     1     1


Nothing Liked 5 4 7 4 - 9 4 4 6 Other 12 12 11 12 15 7 14 13 11 DK/NA 41 41 50 31 22 54 41 37 45



14. And regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you dislike most about Rick Lazio? (Column percentages may add to more than 100% because up to three responses were allowed.)

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Lacking Political
 Experience            4%    3%    4%    4%    6%    3%    3%    6%    2%
Poor political
 record                1     1     2     1     -     2     1     2     1
Stand on abortion      4     2     5     6     4     5     4     5     3
Stand on gun
 control               1     -     1     1     -     2     1     1     1
Stand on education     1     -     1     1     -     1     1     1     0
Running negative
 campaign              3     3     3     4     2     4     4     3     4
Not well known/
 Hasn't gotten
 message out           3     3     2     5     2     3     5     4     3
Lacking honesty/
 integrity             2     1     2     2     -     3     2     2     2
Arrogant               1     1     -     -     1     -     1     1     1
Indecisive/Wishy-
 Washy                 1     -     1     1     -     1     -     1     1
Weak/Not forceful
 enough                1     -     1     1     -     -     -     1     -
Flip-Flops on
 Issues                2     -     3     2     1     2     1     1     2
Doesn't know/care
 about New York        1     1     1     -     1     -     1     1     -
Doesn't know/care
 about upstate issues  2     5     -     -     2     2     2     2     2
Opportunist            1     1     -     1     1     1     -     1     -
Party                  5     3     7     4     -     9     3     6     4
Political Philosophy/
 Ideology              3     1     4     3     -     5     2     3     2
He's too young         2     2     1     2     3     -     1     2     2
Only entered race
 when Rudy dropped
 out                   1     1     -     1     -     1     1     -     1
Just don't like
 her/him               1     1     1     1     -     2     -     -     1


Nothing Disliked 15 14 11 20 23 8 15 13 16 Other 7 6 11 6 4 10 8 10 5 DK/NA 52 57 53 43 52 51 52 49 54