August 9, 2000 - Clinton Squeaks Ahead Of Lazio In New York Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; No Apparent Impact From Alleged Anti-Semitic Remark
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton has inched ahead of U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio, 46 - 43 percent in their neck-and-neck race for the U.S. Senate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a July 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Mrs. Clinton and Rep. Lazio were locked in a 45 - 45 percent tie. Jewish voters back Mrs. Clinton 52 - 36 percent, compared to her 54 - 34 percent Jewish support in the July 12 poll.

From August 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,203 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

By a 49 - 19 percent margin -- with 61 - 24 percent among Jews -- voters say Clinton would be a strong supporter of Israel if she is elected; 32 percent are undecided.

Voters say 39 - 14 percent, 50 - 12 percent among Jews, that Lazio would be a strong supporter of Israel; 47 percent of voters are undecided on where Lazio stands on Israel.

"For years, support of Israel has been a must in New York elections and Mrs. Clinton outscores Rep. Lazio slightly on this issue. Almost half the voters just don't know where he stands on Israel," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Four out of five voters have heard the allegation that Mrs. Clinton made an anti-Semitic remark in 1974; 40 percent believe she said it and 38 percent don't believe she said it -- and 88 percent of those who believe it say it will have no impact on how they vote."

Lazio is ahead 48 - 39 percent upstate and leads 57 - 35 percent in the suburbs, while Clinton leads 63 - 25 percent in New York City. Men voters favor Lazio 50 - 40 percent, while women voters back Clinton 50 - 38 percent. Lazio gets 46 percent of white women to Clinton's 41 percent.

On abortion, 48 percent of voters say it is very important that a candidate share their view on the subject, while 33 percent say it is somewhat important.

Forty-five percent of New York voters say abortion should be "generally available to those who want it," while 39 percent want stricter limits on abortion and 13 percent say "abortion should not be permitted."

If Clinton is elected, 56 percent of voters believe she would be a "strong" supporter of abortion rights, while 14 percent say she would support abortion rights to some degree; 9 percent say she would not support abortion and 22 percent are undecided.

If Lazio is elected, 8 percent of voters believe he would be a "strong" supporter of abortion rights, while 13 percent say he would support abortion rights to some degree; 37 percent say he would not support abortion rights and 41 percent are undecided.

"Our numbers show that a candidate's position on abortion is very important. New York is pro-choice and New Yorkers see Clinton as solidly for abortion rights. Lazio says he's pro-choice, but New Yorkers doubt that he'd be a strong supporter of abortion rights," Carroll said.

By a 32 - 17 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Lazio, with 16 percent mixed and 33 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. In the July 12 Quinnipiac University poll, Lazio's favorability was 31 - 13 percent.

Clinton's favorability is 37 - 37 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 3 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This compares with her negative 34 - 40 percent favorability in the June 7 poll.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 582-5201.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Approve 61% 65% 50% 67% 84% 47% 60% 66% 57% 63% 70% 53%

Disapprove 24 22 32 18 10 37 23 23 25 22 19 29

DK/NA 15 14 18 14 6 16 17 12 18 15 11 18



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?
                Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Approve 60% 51% 74% 55% 25% 86% 58% 53% 64% 51% 58% 74%

Disapprove 36 45 21 39 70 10 37 41 32 46 38 20

DK/NA 5 4 5 6 5 4 5 6 4 4 4 6



4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


A lot 41% 38% 41% 47% 46% 40% 41% 46% 38% 43% 40% 50%

Some 35 37 35 33 33 37 37 33 37 31 36 34

Only a little 17 18 18 13 16 18 16 14 19 20 17 12

None at all 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 3

DK/NA - - - 1 - - - - 1 - - 1



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Favorable 37% 31% 51% 29% 9% 61% 34% 33% 40% 34% 34% 36%

Unfavorable 37 43 21 45 73 12 35 44 31 44 40 27

Mixed 22 21 24 21 14 23 26 19 24 18 21 34

Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 2 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 3

REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1



6. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Favorable 32% 34% 20% 43% 63% 10% 32% 38% 28% 37% 38% 20%

Unfavorable 17 13 27 13 2 30 15 16 18 15 12 24

Mixed 16 17 15 16 10 19 18 14 18 15 15 28

Hvn't hrd enough 33 34 36 27 24 40 34 31 35 31 34 28

REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1



7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican for whom would you vote?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Clinton 46% 39% 63% 35% 10% 76% 43% 40% 50% 41% 41% 52% Lazio 43 48 25 57 84 15 43 50 38 49 50 36

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 9 10 9 7 4 8 12 7 10 8 7 12



9. How important is it to you that the Senate candidate you vote for shares your views on the issue of abortion - very important, somewhat important, or not important at all?
                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Very important 48% 44% 56% 46% 43% 57% 44% 37% 57% 50% 44% 61%

Smwht important 33 36 31 32 35 28 36 38 29 32 36 26

Not imp at all 17 19 12 20 20 13 19 24 12 17 18 11

DK/NA 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3



10. Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

                      Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew
Abortion should 
be generally
available to 
those who want it.    45%  35%  54%  51%  27%  57%  46%  45%  45%  42%  34%  71%


Abortion should be available, but under stricter limits than it is now. 39 43 34 36 50 32 37 40 37 36 49 22

Abortion should not be permitted. 13 18 8 10 21 7 13 11 14 18 15 3

DK/NA 3 3 4 2 2 3 4 4 3 4 2 4



11. If Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected to the United States Senate, do you think that she will be a supporter of abortion rights or not?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes 69% 59% 78% 74% 65% 78% 66% 70% 68% 65% 66% 85%

No 9 12 6 8 12 5 11 10 9 8 13 3

DK/NA 22 29 16 18 23 17 24 20 23 28 21 12

11a. (If 'Yes' on Q11) Would you say she will be a strong supporter of abortion rights or not?
                             Of those who said "Yes" on Q11
                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Strong supporter 80% 77% 81% 84% 86% 80% 77% 82% 80% 76% 83% 85%

Not strong supporter 9 10 10 5 7 9 10 9 9 12 8 3

DK/NA 11 13 9 11 6 12 13 10 12 13 9 12

Combined Q11 and Q11a Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Prot Cath Jew Strong supporter 56% 46% 64% 62% 56% 62% 50% 57% 54% 49% 55% 72%

Supporter - not strong 6 6 8 4 5 7 7 6 6 8 5 3

Supporter - don't know how strong 8 8 7 8 4 9 9 7 8 8 6 10

No support 9 12 6 8 12 5 11 10 9 8 13 3

DK/NA 22 29 16 18 23 17 24 20 23 28 21 12



12. If Rick Lazio is elected to the United States Senate, do you think that he will be a supporter of abortion rights or not?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes 22% 16% 21% 31% 33% 14% 23% 26% 18% 21% 25% 21%

No 37 32 43 37 30 44 36 39 36 32 35 48

DK/NA 41 52 36 32 37 43 41 35 46 47 40 31

12a. (If 'Yes' on Q12) Would you say he will be a strong supporter of abortion rights or not?
                             Of those who said "Yes" on Q12
                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew
Strong
 supporter       38%  39%  43%  33%  36%  45%  38%  36%  41%  38%  40%  28%


Not strong supporter 46 37 45 55 47 41 50 53 39 45 45 52

DK/NA 16 25 12 11 17 14 12 11 21 17 15 20

Combined Q12 and Q12a Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Prot Cath Jew Strong supporter 8% 6% 9% 10% 12% 6% 8% 9% 8% 8% 10% 6%

Not strong supporter 10 6 9 17 15 6 11 14 7 10 11 11

Supporter - don't know how strong 3 4 3 4 6 2 3 3 4 4 4 4

No support 37 32 44 37 30 44 36 39 36 32 35 48

DK/NA 41 52 35 32 37 43 41 35 46 47 40 31



13. How important is it to you that the Senate candidate you vote for is a strong supporter of Israel - very important, somewhat important, or not important at all?
                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Very important 23% 18% 27% 25% 21% 28% 17% 22% 23% 21% 14% 72%

Smwht important 37 38 35 37 36 35 41 37 37 41 39 23

Not important at all 37 40 34 36 41 31 39 39 35 35 43 3

DK/NA 4 4 5 2 2 5 3 2 5 3 4 3



14. If Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected to the United States Senate, do you think that she will be a strong supporter of Israel or not?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes/Str supporter 49% 37% 58% 57% 37% 61% 48% 50% 48% 47% 46% 61%

No/Not str supporter 19 19 16 21 30 10 21 24 15 20 21 24

DK/NA 32 44 26 22 33 29 31 26 37 33 33 15



15. If Rick Lazio is elected to the United States Senate, do you think that he will be a strong supporter of Israel or not?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes/Str supporter 39% 29% 42% 50% 47% 34% 40% 48% 32% 38% 40% 50%

No/Not str supporter 14 16 16 11 10 17 17 15 14 13 16 12

DK/NA 47 55 42 39 43 49 43 36 54 49 44 38



16. Have you heard or read anything about the allegation that Hillary Rodham Clinton made an anti-semitic remark in an argument with a campaign aide in 1974 or haven't you heard or read anything about that?

                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes/Heard 78% 69% 80% 89% 76% 81% 78% 82% 75% 74% 78% 97%

No/Haven't heard 21 30 20 10 23 19 22 17 24 25 21 3

DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 - - 1 1 1 - -



17. (If 'Yes' on Q16) Do you believe the allegation that Hillary Rodham Clinton made an anti-semitic remark in an argument with a campaign aide in 1974 or not?

                             Of those who said "Yes" on Q16
                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes/Believe it 40% 41% 34% 46% 66% 22% 41% 45% 36% 42% 44% 41%

No/Do not believe it 38 34 48 32 17 55 35 36 39 33 39 37

DK/NA 22 25 18 22 17 23 24 19 24 25 16 22



17. (If 'Yes' on Q17) Has it made you less likely to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton or hasn't it affected the way you will vote?

                             Of those who said "Yes" on Q17
                 Tot  Ups  NYC  Sub  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Prot Cath Jew


Yes/Less likely 10% 6% 10% 16% 12% 7% 12% 9% 11% 12% 10% 15%

No/Had no effect 88 92 88 84 87 92 86 88 88 85 90 85

DK/NA 2 3 2 - 1 1 2 2 1 4 - -