October 18, 2000 - Clinton Holds On To 7-Point Lead In New York Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lazio Wins On Trust, But Clinton Wins As Pothole Senator
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton has a 50 - 43 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio among New York State likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Mrs. Clinton held the same 50 - 43 percent lead in polls by the independent Quinnipiac University September 27 and October 6.
Lazio holds a slight 49 - 44 percent lead among likely voters upstate, while Clinton leads 61 - 31 percent in New York City. The race in the suburbs is now a toss-up, with Lazio getting 48 percent to Clinton's 46 percent.
Only 28 percent of likely voters expect Lazio to win the race, while 49 percent of voters, including 22 percent of Lazio voters, expect Clinton to win.
From October 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 969 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.
"Tick, tick, tick, Rick. Time is running out and Rep. Lazio has not gained an inch on Mrs. Clinton since their first debate September 13. If Lazio has an October surprise, well, October is here," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"All those trips upstate continue to pay off for Mrs. Clinton. She's even catching up to Lazio among his neighbors in the suburbs. Can she hang on for three more weeks?"


Mrs. Clinton's favorability among likely voters is 40 - 37 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 1 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This compares to a 39 - 38 favorability in the October 6 Quinnipiac University poll.


By a 35 - 29 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lazio, with 28 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Lazio had a 36 - 29 percent favorability in the October 6 poll.


Clinton leads Lazio 60 - 30 percent among likely Jewish voters and gets 50 percent of white women likely voters to Lazio's 41 percent, her biggest lead to date with this key voting group.


Comparing the two candidates' characteristics, New York likely voters say:
  • 53 - 35 percent that Clinton would be more effective in getting federal funds for New York;
  • 43 - 33 percent that Lazio is more honest and trustworthy;
  • 46 - 42 percent that Clinton cares more about their needs and problems;
  • 52 - 39 percent that Clinton's views on key issues are closer to their own views;
  • 55 - 32 percent that Lazio has better experience to be a U.S. Senator from New York;
  • 51 - 37 percent that Lazio has a better understanding of New York issues and problems.



"New Yorkers think Lazio is more honest. They think Mrs. Clinton is closer to them on issues. But here's the surprise: Most New Yorkers think she'd be a better Pothole Senator -- in the tradition of Al D'Amato -- than Lazio, a Long Islander like D'Amato."


The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 582-5201.

2. Is your opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 40% 35% 52% 33% 7% 67% 34% 33% 45%

Unfavorable 37 42 26 41 79 10 36 45 30

Mixed 22 22 18 25 12 21 28 20 23

Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

REFUSED 1 - 2 - - 1 1 2 -



3. Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 35% 39% 24% 40% 74% 11% 33% 40% 30%

Unfavorable 29 24 39 27 4 49 25 28 31

Mixed 28 32 24 28 17 30 34 26 31

Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 10 6 4 8 7 5 8

REFUSED 1 1 3 - - 3 1 1 1



4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 50% 44% 61% 46% 6% 83% 45% 43% 55% Lazio 43 49 31 48 90 13 44 51 37

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 - - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 6 6 7 4 3 10 5 7



5. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                     ... Likely Voters ....
                         Clinton  Lazio
                         Voters   Voters


Made up 82% 83%

Might change 18 16

DK/NA - 1



6. Would you describe your support for Clinton/Lazio as strongly favoring him/her, or do you like Clinton/Lazio but with reservations, or do you support Clinton/Lazio because you dislike the other candidate?

                     ... Likely Voters ....
                         Clinton  Lazio
                         Voters   Voters


Strongly favor 54% 43%

Like with reservations 35 29

Dislike other cand. 9 25

DK/NA 2 3



8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect will win the Senate election - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

                     ... Likely Voters ....
                             Clinton  Lazio
                     Tot     Voters   Voters


Clinton 49% 73% 22% Lazio 28 6 54

DKNA 24 20 24



17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more honest and trustworthy - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 33% 29% 45% 26% 6% 57% 27% 27% 38% Lazio 43 48 31 49 83 15 45 49 38

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 11 10 11 11 6 11 13 13 9 DK/NA 13 13 12 14 5 17 16 10 15



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think cares more about the needs and problems of people like you - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?
                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 46% 42% 58% 39% 9% 75% 41% 39% 52% Lazio 42 46 29 50 84 15 42 48 37

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 5 5 6 3 3 4 7 6 4 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 4 6 10 7 7



19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, whose views on important issues are closer your own - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 52% 45% 65% 47% 9% 84% 47% 45% 57% Lazio 39 47 25 44 87 9 39 47 34

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 5 3 2 2 6 4 3 DK/NA 5 6 5 6 2 4 9 5 6



20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who has the better experience to be a United States Senator from New York - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 32% 28% 42% 28% 7% 53% 27% 29% 35% Lazio 55 61 44 59 90 32 59 60 51

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 6 5 7 6 - 7 7 6 5 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 3 8 7 6 8



21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more effective in the United States Senate at getting federal funds for projects in New York state - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 53% 50% 60% 48% 18% 79% 49% 48% 57% Lazio 35 38 28 39 72 13 33 40 31

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 2 5 4 1 DK/NA 10 10 9 10 8 7 12 8 11



22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has a better understanding of the problems and important issues facing New York State - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

                        ................  Likely Voters  ..................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 37% 34% 45% 33% 5% 61% 33% 32% 42% Lazio 51 57 40 56 91 26 52 56 48

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 6 5 9 5 3 5 10 8 5 DK/NA 5 5 6 5 1 8 5 5 6