October 31, 2000 - Clinton Slips And It's Neck And Neck In New York Again, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Her Loss Shifts To Undecided More Than To Lazio
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton's support has slipped among New York State likely voters and she gets 47 percent to U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio's 44 percent -- a race too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Nine percent are undecided.

Mrs. Clinton held a 50 - 43 percent lead in polls by the independent Quinnipiac University September 27, October 6 and October 18, when 6 percent were undecided.

Rep. Lazio has increased his lead among upstate likely voters, from 49 - 44 percent October 18 to 49 - 38 percent today. His lead in the suburbs has gone from 48 - 46 percent to 52 - 41 percent. Clinton leads 65 - 29 percent in New York City, up from 61 - 31 percent.

Jewish voters back Clinton 58 - 34 percent, compared to 60 - 30 percent October 18.

From October 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,009 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

"It still looks like Hillary vs. Hillary. Rep. Lazio's vote has barely changed. The movement was away from Mrs. Clinton to undecided. The good news for Lazio is that Clinton is losing ground. The bad news for Lazio is that he's barely gaining. The bad news for Clinton is that she has dropped below that magic 50-percent mark. The good news is that she is on the up side of a real squeaker," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Voters tend to come home to their political roots in a campaign's closing days. So Lazio is gaining in Republican upstate while Clinton is gaining in Democratic New York City."

Mrs. Clinton's favorability among likely voters is split 39 - 40 percent, with 19 percent mixed and 2 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This compares to a 40 - 37 favorability in the October 18 Quinnipiac University poll.

By a 38 - 29 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lazio, with 26 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Lazio had a 35 - 29 percent favorability in the October 18 poll.

Lazio now gets 45 percent of white women likely voters, to Clinton's 44 percent, a tie, but a drop from Clinton's 50 - 41 percent lead with this important voting group.

White Catholic likely voters back Lazio 53 - 36 percent. Lazio leads among all white voters 49 - 41 percent, while black voters back Clinton 84 - 7 percent.

Vice President Al Gore leads Texas Gov. George W. Bush 54 - 33 percent. Fifteen percent of Gore voters are voting for Lazio, while 5 percent of Bush voters back Clinton.

In open-ended questions, where voters can give any answer, a total of 40 percent of New York likely voters say the thing they like most about Clinton is her position on various issues, such as education -- 15 percent, and health care -- 11 percent. The biggest Clinton "dislikes," held by 23 percent of voters each, are her perceived lack of honesty and the fact that she's not from New York.

The thing voters like most about Lazio, according to 24 percent, is that he's from New York. His biggest "dislike," 17 percent, is his stand on domestic issues such as abortion -- 4 percent.

"New Yorkers are comfortable with Clinton on the issues, but the honesty question and her status as an outsider remain her biggest problems," Carroll said.

"Lazio's image is fuzzier. There are no big likes or dislikes about him."

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 582-5201.

2. Is your opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 39% 33% 53% 33% 8% 67% 31% 35% 43%

Unfavorable 40 45 28 47 77 15 41 47 34

Mixed 19 20 17 19 12 17 25 16 21

Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 - 3 1 2 2 1

REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 -



3. Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 38% 44% 27% 44% 76% 17% 37% 44% 34%

Unfavorable 29 23 39 25 2 49 25 28 29

Mixed 26 27 23 26 16 24 34 22 29

Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 10 3 6 10 4 5 7

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 -



4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 47% 38% 65% 41% 9% 77% 41% 42% 51% Lazio 44 49 29 52 84 15 48 49 39

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - - - DK/NA 9 12 6 7 6 7 12 8 10



5. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     ... Likely Voters ....
                         Clinton  Lazio
                         Voters   Voters


Made up 86% 90%

Might change 14 9

DK/NA - 1



6. Would you describe your support for Clinton/Lazio as strongly favoring him/her, or do you like Clinton/Lazio but with reservations, or do you support Clinton/Lazio because you dislike the other candidate?

                     ... Likely Voters ....
                         Clinton  Lazio
                         Voters   Voters


Strongly favor 57% 45%

Like with reservations 32 22

Dislike other candidate 9 31

DK/NA 2 2



9. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 49% 39% 63% 49% 13% 78% 43% 44% 53%

Unfavorable 27 35 17 26 65 7 25 33 22

Mixed 23 25 19 25 21 14 32 22 23

Haven't hrd enough 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1

REFUSED - 1 - - 1 - 1 - -



10. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 30% 39% 20% 27% 75% 8% 25% 36% 26%

Unfavorable 44 32 60 44 7 68 42 38 48

Mixed 24 27 18 27 15 21 32 24 24

Haven't hrd enough 1 1 2 - 1 2 - 1 1

REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - - 1



11. Is your opinion of Pat Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 6% 7% 4% 5% 8% 3% 7% 7% 4%

Unfavorable 57 48 64 63 46 64 55 61 53

Mixed 13 14 11 14 17 10 14 13 13

Haven't hrd enough 24 30 20 18 28 23 23 17 29

REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2 - 1 1 1



12. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 22% 19% 23% 26% 13% 23% 26% 24% 21%

Unfavorable 27 28 22 31 32 28 21 30 24

Mixed 22 21 25 22 25 19 26 24 21

Haven't hrd enough 27 31 29 19 28 29 26 20 33

REFUSED 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1



13. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote?

                        .................  Likely Voters  .................
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 54% 43% 69% 55% 12% 85% 49% 48% 59% Bush 33 41 18 36 80 7 31 39 28

Buchanan - - - - - - - - - Nader 5 5 7 3 1 3 8 6 4

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 11 6 5 7 5 11 6 9



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what are the things that you like most about Hillary Rodham Clinton?

                                            Likely Voters


Experience 6% Experience (general) 2 National Exp/Knows Washington/Good contacts 4

Intelligent/Knowledgeable total 17 Intelligent/Knowledgeable (gen.) 15 Capable 2

Listens to/Knows what NY wants 3

Leadership 11 Good leadership qualities (general) 1 Clear on issues/Believes in what he/she does. 1 Fights for what he/she believes in/ Aggressive. 1 Strength/Perseverance/Determined 5 Courage/Guts 1 Good speaker/Inspirational 2

Campaign 1 Running positive campaign 1

Domestic Issues 40 Agree on issues/Policies (general) 5 Stand on taxes 1 Stand on education 15 Stand on abortion 3 Stand on economy/Jobs 2 Stand on healthcare 11 Stand on Medicare/Prescription drugs 2 Stand on Social Security 1

Honesty/Integrity 5

Morality/Ethics 2 Character 1 Family Issues 1

Personality 6 Personality(general) 2 Style/Charisma 2 Regular guy/Down to earth 1 Just like him/Her 1

Gender reference 5

Appearance 1

Compassionate/Cares for people 3

Party affiliation 3

Not an insider politician/Fresh face, fresh ideas, no bagage 1

Family Ties 1

Stood by her man 1

Group references total 11% Stand on Women's Rights 3 Supports/Fights for poor 1 Supports/Fights for middle/working class 1 Stand on Children's issues 3 Stand on the Elderly 1 Upstate NY issues 2

Other 8

DK/NA 36



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what are the things that you dislike most about Hillary Rodham Clinton?
                                            Likely Voters
                                            Tot


EXPERIENCE 8% Lacking Experience/Political Record 6 Poor Political Record 1 Not Qualified 1

LACKS INTELLIGENCE/KNOWLEDGE 3 Not Intelligent/Not knowledgeable 3

LEADERSHIP 1 Weak on issues/wishy-washy/vague/ indecisive 1

CAMPAIGN STYLE 2 Negative campaigning 2

DOMESTIC ISSUES 11 Disagree on Issues/Policies(gen ref) 2 Stand on Taxes 1 Stand on Education 1 Stand on Abortion 2 Stand on Healthcare 3 Stand on Medicare/Prescription Drugs 1 Stand on Size of Govt 1

FOREIGN POLICY 1 Middle East issues 1

HONESTY/INTEGRITY 23 Lacking Honesty/Integrity 18 Inconsistent/Hypocrite/Panders for Votes 3 Phony/Fake 2

MORALS/ETHICS 3 Lacking Morality/Ethics 2 Lacking character 1

PERSONALITY 11 Personality/Style(gen.ref.) 3 Arrogant/Smug 1 Power driven 1 Opportunist 5 Just don't like Him/Her 1

PARTY 1

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY 2

TIES WITH CLINTON 7

FAMILY TIES/WIFE 1

INSIDER/POLITICIAN 1

CARPETBAGGER 23

GROUP REFERENCE 1 Upstate New York issues 1

SCANDALS 4 Scandal(gen.ref.) 4

HANDLING OF MARITAL PROBLEMS 3

Other 10 DK/NA 32



16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what are the things that you like most about Rick Lazio?
                                            Likely Voters
                                            Tot


EXPERIENCE 14% Experience (general reference) 4 National Exp/Knows Washington/Good contacts 3 Good Political Record 7

INTELLIGENCE/KNOWLEDGE 3 Intelligent/Knowledgeable (gen ref) 2 Capable 1

LISTENS TO/KNOWS WHAT NY WANTS 7

LEADERSHIP 4 Clear on issues/Believes in what he/she does. 1 Fights for what he/she believes in/ Aggressive. 1 Strength/Perseverance/Determined 2

CAMPAIGN 1 Running positive campaign 1

DOMESTIC ISSUES 19 Agree on issues/Policies(gen.ref.) 3 Stand on taxes 3 Stand on education 6 Stand on abortion 1 Stand on economy/Jobs 1 Stand on environment 1 Stand on healthcare 1 Stand on Medicare/Prescription drugs 1 Stand on Social Security 1 Stand on cancer issues 1

HONESTY/INTEGRITY 11

MORALS/ETHICS 7 Morality/Ethics(gen.ref.) 1 Family man/woman 5 Family Issues 1

PERSONALITY 6 Personality(gen.ref.) 4 Style/Charisma 1 Regular guy/Down to earth 1

HE'S YOUNG 3

APPEARANCE 2

COMPASSIONATE/CARES FOR PEOPLE 1

HIS CHILDREN ATTEND NY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2

NOT THE OTHER CANDIDATE 3 HE'S FROM NY 24 PARTY 3 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY 3 NOT AN INSIDER POLITICIAN/FRESH FACE, IDEAS/NO BAGGAGE 1 GROUP REFERENCE 1 Upstate NY issues 1

Other 7 DK/NA 37



17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what are the things that you dislike most about Rick Lazio?
                                            Likely Voters
                                            Tot


EXPERIENCE 9% Lacking Experience/Political Record 6 Poor Political Record 2 Not Qualified 1

LACKS INTELLIGENCE/KNOWLEDGE 1 Not Intelligent/Not knowledgeable 1

LEADERSHIP 3 Bad Speaker/Does Not Communicate Well 1 Weak on issues/wishy-washy/vague/ indecisive 2

CAMPAIGN STYLE 14 Negative campaigning 11 Not well known/Hasn't gotten msg. out 3

DEBATE PERFORMANCE/STYLE 2

DOMESTIC ISSUES 17 Disagree on Issues/Policies (gen ref) 3 Stand on Taxes 2 Stand on Education 3 Stand on Abortion 4 Stand on Environment 1 Stand on Gun Control 1 Stand on Healthcare 1 Stand on Medicare/Prescription Drugs 1 Stand on Social Security 1

LACKS HONESTY/INTEGRITY 7 Lacking Honesty/Integrity 5 Inconsistent/Hypocrite/Panders for Votes 1 Phony/Fake 1

PERSONALITY 10 Personality/Style(gen.ref.) 8 Arrogant/Smug 1 Too young/Old 2 Just don't like Him/Her 1

TOO YOUNG/OLD 2

PARTY 6

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY 2

TIES WITH NEWT GINGRICH 3

GROUP REFERENCE 6 Stand on Women's Rights 1 Upstate New York issues 4 NYC issues 1

Other 12 DK/NA 41