February 3, 1999 - Women Power Hillary To Senate Lead Over Giuliani, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Mayor Tops D'amato Among GOP And All Voters
A 22-point lead among women voters gives First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton a 51 - 42 percent lead over New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in their undeclared race for the U.S. Senate, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

Men voters favor Mayor Giuliani 49 - 44 percent, while women voters back Mrs. Clinton 58 - 36 percent. The two candidates are tied at 46 percent among upstate voters, while Giuliani has a 50 - 45 percent edge -- a statistical tie -- among suburban voters. Among New York City voters, Clinton leads 64 - 31 percent.

In another question, which does not compare candidates, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds both Clinton and Giuliani are well-regarded among New York voters:
  • If Clinton is the Democratic candidate for Senate, 57 percent of all registered voters say they are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for her, while 79 percent of Democratic voters say they are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for her.
  • If Giuliani is the Republican candidate for Senate, 54 percent of all registered voters say they are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for him, while 71 percent of Republican voters say they are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for him.
If former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato gets the GOP nod to run again, 40 percent of all voters are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for him, while 15 percent are not too likely and 42 percent are not likely at all. Among Republicans, 66 percent are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for D'Amato.

"Is this real? Mrs. Clinton hasn't said a word about running, but she does better than candidates who are testing the waters. This looks like more than just name recognition, because Mayor Giuliani, former Sen. D'Amato and even Rev. Al Sharpton have name recognition," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Would this good feeling endure if Mrs. Clinton went from being a dream candidate to being a real candidate in a real campaign with real opposition?

"If Giuliani decides to run, he gives the Republicans a strong -- and real -- New York candidate. D'Amato does well among Republican voters, but he has a big negative among the general electorate," Carroll said.

"Among the other possible candidates, only New York City Public Advocate Mark Green registers on the name recognition scale, with 35 percent saying they might vote for him.

"Rev. Al Sharpton is known, but not liked: 67 percent of all voters say they are not likely at all to vote for him if he were the Democratic candidate for Senate. Among black voters, 41 percent say they would be very likely or somewhat likely to vote for Sharpton, while 56 percent say they would not be very likely or not likely at all to vote for him."

New Yorkers are split on whether a Senate candidate should live here, with 46 percent saying they would be less likely to vote for a non-resident and 49 percent saying it would make no difference. Among Hillary Clinton supporters, 31 percent say they are less likely to vote for a non-New Yorker, while 65 percent say it makes no difference. Among Giuliani supporters, 64 percent say they would be less likely to vote for a non-resident, while 30 percent say it makes no difference.

"Half of our registered voters tell Quinnipiac College it doesn't make any difference if their Senate candidate lives here," Carroll said. "Maybe that just reflects unhappiness with the current crop of New York politicians. Could this happen in any other state?"

From January 26 - February 1, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,191 New Yorkers who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

5. If First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is the Democratic candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for her, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 32% 25% 46% 26% 11% 53% 23% 24% 37%

Smwht likely 25 27 22 27 17 26 31 24 26

Not too likely 9 11 6 10 10 6 13 12 7

Not likely at all 31 35 22 34 60 12 29 36 26

Haven't hd enough 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



6. If New York City Public Advocate Mark Green is the Democratic candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for him, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 10% 3% 21% 7% 3% 16% 8% 9% 11%

Smwht likely 25 14 36 29 15 32 25 25 25

Not too likely 11 11 10 15 13 11 13 14 10

Not likely at all 18 18 16 21 29 11 20 21 16

Haven't hd enough 35 53 17 27 40 29 34 30 38

Refused 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 1 1



7. If The Reverend Al Sharpton is the Democratic candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for him, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   His


Very likely 4 2 7 4 1 7 3 1% 24% 6%

Smwht likely 6 5 8 4 3 8 4 3 17 11

Not too likely 13 14 13 9 10 15 13 11 23 10

Not likely at all 67 60 66 80 75 63 69 73 33 71

Haven't hd enough 9 18 4 2 11 6 11 11 3 2

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 -



8. If United States Representative Carolyn Maloney is the Democratic candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for her, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 6% 4% 10% 4% 2% 10% 3% 4% 7%

Smwht likely 18 13 24 17 12 19 20 16 19

Not too likely 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 7

Not likely at all 15 13 16 15 25 9 15 19 11

Haven't hd enough 52 61 40 53 51 53 52 49 55

Refused 1 1 - 2 2 1 - 1 1



9. If United States Representative Nita Lowey is the Democratic candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for her, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 4% 2% 6% 6% - 9% 2% 4% 5%

Smwht likely 10 4 15 14 4 13 10 10 10

Not too likely 8 6 9 11 11 7 7 10 7

Not likely at all 13 13 12 15 22 9 14 17 10

Haven't hd enough 63 74 57 54 62 60 67 59 67

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1



10. If New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is the Republican candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for him, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 22% 16% 23% 30% 36% 13% 24% 27% 18%

Smwht likely 32 39 23 33 35 29 31 31 33

Not too likely 12 13 10 13 9 14 13 12 12

Not likely at all 28 21 41 23 12 39 26 27 29

Haven't hd enough 5 10 1 1 7 3 5 2 6

Refused 1 1 2 - - 2 1 1 1



11. If Former United States Senator Alfonse D'Amato is the Republican candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for him, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 14% 11% 13% 19% 26% 7% 13% 18% 11%

Smwht likely 26 29 19 28 40 16 26 23 28

Not too likely 15 16 14 14 12 14 16 13 16

Not likely at all 42 40 49 36 18 59 42 43 41

Haven't hd enough 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 3

Refused 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1



12. If United States Representative Rick Lazio is the Republican candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for him, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 3% 1% 2% 7% 7% 2% 2% 3% 3%

Smwht likely 8 7 6 13 14 5 7 9 7

Not too likely 8 7 10 7 5 9 9 9 7

Not likely at all 17 12 22 18 8 23 18 17 16

Haven't hd enough 63 73 57 55 66 59 63 60 65

Refused 1 1 2 - - 2 1 1 1



13. If United States Representative Peter King is the Republican candidate for Senator, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all to vote for him, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very likely 3% 1% 2% 7% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3%

Smwht likely 11 8 9 17 12 8 12 12 10

Not too likely 10 6 14 10 8 10 12 11 8

Not likely at all 19 14 26 19 13 29 16 20 18

Haven't hd enough 56 70 47 46 61 49 56 51 60

Refused 2 1 3 - - 2 2 2 1



14. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic candidate, and Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Rodham Clinton 51% 46% 64% 45% 16% 79% 48% 44% 58%

Giuliani 42 46 31 50 80 17 44 49 36

DK/NA 6 8 5 5 4 4 8 7 6



14A. If a candidate for Senate does not live in New York State, does that make you more likely to vote for them, less likely or doesn't it make a difference?

                                                               Clinton Giulani
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind  Voter  Voter


More likely 3% 3% 2% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3% 4%

Less likely 46 48 37 52 63 34 48 31 64

Doesn't make diff. 49 47 57 44 32 60 48 65 30

DK/NA 2 2 3 - 1 1 2 2 2