February 4, 1999 - Gore, Bush, Bradley, Dole Have Early Presidential Lead, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Senate Republicans Lose 2-1 On Impeachment
Vice President Al Gore, Texas Governor George W. Bush, former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey and would-have-been First Lady Elizabeth Dole are the early leaders in a Quinnipiac College Poll released today, measuring New York State voters' presidential preferences for the year 2000.

In an open-ended question, where voters could choose anyone as the person they would most like to see elected President in 2000:
  • Gore gets 18 percent of all voters and 29 percent of Democrats;
  • Bush gets 8 percent of all voters and 24 percent of Republicans;
  • Bradley gets 7 percent of all voters and 9 percent of Democrats;
  • Dole gets 6 percent of all voters and 10 percent of Republicans;
  • Bill Clinton gets 8 percent of all voters and 15 percent of Democrats;
  • Hillary Clinton gets 3 percent of all voters and 4 percent of Democrats;
  • Colin Powell gets 2 percent of all voters and 3 percent of Republicans.
No other candidate gets more than 1 percent, with 33 percent of voters undecided.

"This is our first look at the Presidential race, so we let the voters choose anyone they want, to see who're making a blip on the recognition radar," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "Vice President Gore and Sen. Bradley are hardly a surprise, but it's interesting to see Texas Governor Bush as an early contender in New York.

"No favorite sons, or daughters, here: Gov. Pataki, Mayor Giuliani and New Jersey's Gov. Whitman get almost no support. House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, Rev. Jesse Jackson and Colin Powell also fail to register with voters."

Gov. George Pataki continues his high marks, with a 64 - 27 percent approval rating. But only 18 percent of voters say they would be more likely to vote Republican if Pataki were the GOP vice presidential candidate, while 25 percent say they would be less likely to vote Republican and 53 percent say it makes no difference.

"New Yorkers like their Governor -- in Albany. He doesn't add much to a national ticket," Carroll said.

President Clinton's approval rating stands at 68 - 29 percent, and by a 73 - 25 percent margin, New Yorkers say he should finish his term rather than resign.

But only 35 percent of New Yorkers say Clinton "shares the moral values most Americans try to live by," while 58 percent say he does not.

Senate Republicans are hit with a 65 - 29 percent disapproval rating for the way they're handling the impeachment trial. Senate Democrats get a 49 - 42 percent approval for their handling of impeachment.

"Despite all the impeachment noise, President Clinton's job approval rating is still 68 percent in New York, with a 39 percent approval rating from Republicans," Carroll said.

"New Yorkers don't think he shares their moral values, but the key here is that they believe 75 - 23 percent that he understands the needs and problems of the average American family. That big 3 -1 number hasn't change in the last year.

"Even 51 percent of Republicans believe that Bill Clinton feels their pain.

"And as Republicans in Washington try to fashion a noose for Clinton, somehow it keeps tightening on them instead."

From January 26 - February 1, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,191 New Yorkers who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

1. The next Presidential election will be held in about 2 years. Who would you like to see elected President in the year 2000?

                            Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley, Bill 7% 2% 9% 12% 3% 9% 9% 10% 5% Buchanan, Pat - - 1 - - - - 1 - Bush, George W. 8 10 5 9 24 1 7 11 6 Bush, George - 1 - - 1 - - - - Clinton, Bill 8 5 12 7 2 15 5 4 11 Clinton, Hillary 3 3 4 2 1 4 3 2 3 Cuomo, Mario 1 - 1 - - 1 - - 1 Dole, Bob - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 - Dole, Elizabeth 6 9 2 6 10 3 6 4 8 Forbes, Steven 1 - 1 2 1 - 2 2 - Gephardt, Dick (Richard) - - - 1 - 1 - 1 - Giuliani, Rudolph - - 1 1 - - 1 1 - Gore, Al 18 14 25 13 5 29 15 19 17 Jackson, Jessie - 1 1 - - - 1 1 - Kemp, Jack 1 1 - - 2 - 1 1 - Nader, Ralph - - - - - 1 - - - Pataki, George 1 2 1 1 3 - 1 2 1 Perot, Ross 1 2 - - 1 1 2 2 - Powell, Colin 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 Quayle, Dan 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 1 1 Whitman, Christine - - - - - - 1 - - A Democrat - general 2 2 3 - - 4 1 1 2 A Republican - general 2 2 1 2 6 - 1 1 2 Other 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 5 2 DK/NA 33 38 28 32 29 26 38 28 37



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                                                                            Oct 28
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom  1998


Approve 64% 70% 50% 72% 86% 51% 65% 66% 63% 64%

Disapprove 27 22 40 20 9 40 28 27 28 25

DK/NA 8 8 10 7 6 10 8 7 10 11



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                                                                            Oct 14
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom  1998


Approve 68% 62% 76% 69% 39% 88% 68% 66% 70% 65%

Disapprove 29 34 21 29 60 9 28 30 27 33

DK/NA 3 3 3 3 1 2 4 3 2 2



4. If George Pataki is the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate in the year 2000, would that make you more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


More likely 18% 21% 13% 21% 39% 6% 19% 19% 18%

Less likely 25 20 33 22 5 38 24 24 25

No diff. 53 57 49 50 52 53 53 54 52

DK/NA 4 2 5 6 4 3 4 3 5



15. Is your opinion of President Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 44% 39% 56% 39% 16% 68% 38% 43% 45%

Unfavorable 30 34 21 33 65 9 27 32 28

Mixed 24 25 22 26 18 21 32 24 25

Haven't heard enough 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1



16. How closely have you been following the U.S. Senate impeachment trial of President Clinton? Would you say that you have been following it very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely or not at all?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very closely 27% 22% 30% 31% 32% 28% 25% 32% 23%

Smwht closely 45 48 43 42 46 43 46 45 44

Not too closely 20 22 18 19 18 19 22 17 23

Not at all 8 7 9 7 3 9 7 6 10

DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



17. Given what you know right now, do you believe the Senate should or should not remove President Clinton from office?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Should remove 25% 32% 16% 26% 59% 6% 23% 28% 23%

Should not remove 72 64 83 70 35 92 74 70 73

DK/NA 3 4 2 4 6 1 3 3 4



18. Given what you know right now, do you think the Senate should censure President Clinton - that is, should the Senate vote to publicly reprimand President Clinton or not?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Should censure 59% 63% 50% 64% 63% 53% 64% 58% 59%

Should not censure 36 33 45 30 32 45 30 37 36

DK/NA 5 4 5 6 5 2 6 5 5



19. Given what you know right now, do you think it would be better for the country if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or do you think it would be better for the country if Bill Clinton finished his term as President?

                                                                             Oct 14
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1998


Resign 25% 31% 14% 28% 57% 7% 23% 27% 23% 30%

Finish his term 73 66 83 70 38 91 76 70 75 69

DK/NA 2 3 2 2 5 2 1 3 2 2



19A. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Senate Republicans are handling the impeachment trial of President Clinton?

                         Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   


Approve 29% 36% 20% 30% 60% 11% 27% 33% 27%

Disapprove 65 57 76 64 33 85 68 64 66

DK/NA 6 7 3 7 7 4 5 3 8



19B. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Senate Democrats are handling the impeachment trial of President Clinton?

                         Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind    Men   Wom  


Approve 49% 44% 56% 50% 36% 68% 43% 52% 47%

Disapprove 42 46 37 43 54 26 48 42 42

DK/NA 9 11 7 8 10 6 9 5 12



20. Do you think Bill Clinton shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or not?

                                                                          Oct 14
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1998


Yes 35% 29% 49% 27% 16% 52% 29% 34% 35% 36%

No 58 65 42 66 81 40 62 59 57 57

DK/NA 7 6 8 7 2 8 9 7 7 7



21. Do you think Bill Clinton has strong qualities of leadership, or not?
                                                    
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 76% 72% 83% 72% 52% 91% 76% 74% 78%

No 22 26 14 25 46 7 21 25 20

DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3



22. Do you think Bill Clinton understands the needs and problems of the average American family or not?
                                                                          Mar 25
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom  1998


Yes 75% 68% 84% 74% 51% 94% 72% 73% 76% 76%

No 23 30 14 24 46 5 26 24 22 22

DK/NA 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2



23. Do you think Bill Clinton can be trusted to keep his word as President, or not?

                                                                           Mar 25
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1998


Yes 57% 53% 65% 52% 25% 80% 53% 51% 61% 62%

No 40 44 31 43 73 17 41 45 35 33

DK/NA 4 3 4 4 2 3 5 4 3 5