April 22, 1999 - Hillary Clinton Ends Slide In Wake Of New York Visit, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Women, Blacks Push Her To 8-Point Lead Over Mayor
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose lead over New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani had dropped from 18 points down to 5 points, now holds a 49 - 41 percent lead in her undeclared U.S. Senate race with the Mayor, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

In a February 23 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Mrs. Clinton led Mayor Giuliani 54 - 36 percent. That gap narrowed to 50 - 39 percent March 23 and was at 47 - 42 percent when Quinnipiac College surveyed April 15, prior to Mrs. Clinton's visit here.

This latest poll of 1,128 New York State registered voters was conducted April 14 - 20, in the middle of the media coverage surrounding the First Lady's two-day visit to New York. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

"Is it coincidence or cause and effect? First Lady Hillary Clinton comes barnstorming through New York. The media provides extensive coverage and it breathes new life into those poll numbers," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

Mrs. Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women and 92 - 3 percent among black voters. Men favor Giuliani 46 - 43 percent, a virtual tie, while white voters back the Mayor 49 - 40 percent.

"Voters believe that Hillary Clinton, like President Clinton, feels their pain, by a 48 - 37 percent margin, they say she understands their needs and problems more than Giuliani."

"But the big problem for Mrs. Clinton is her status as a non-New Yorker," Carroll said. "The fact that Clinton is not a New York resident bothers 48 percent of voters, while 52 percent say they are not bothered. That's a virtual tie and a tough place to be at the start of a possible campaign."

By a big 62 - 28 percent margin, voters think Giuliani "has a better understanding of the problems and important issues facing New York State."

But when asked who would be more effective in the Senate getting things done for New York, voters split at 44 - 45 percent.

By a 48 - 24 percent margin, New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, with 20 percent mixed and 7 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Giuliani gets a 35 - 26 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 16 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Looking at Clinton, 51 percent see her as liberal, while 29 percent see her as moderate and 10 percent see her as conservative. Looking at Giuliani, 13 percent see him as liberal, while 35 percent see him as moderate and 36 percent see him as conservative.

Because of Giuliani's handling of the Amadou Diallo case, 6 percent of voters say they are more likely to vote for him, while 33 percent say they are less likely and 50 percent say it makes no difference in how they vote.

"The Diallo case is the big question mark hanging over Giuliani. One third of poll respondents say they'd be less likely to vote for him because of it, and the troubling finding for the Mayor is that 36 percent of suburban votes and 31 percent of independent voters feel this way," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

3. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                          Apr 15
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom  1999


Favorable 48% 41% 60% 47% 21% 72% 44% 42% 54% 48%

Unfavorable 24 28 17 25 49 5 23 29 19 23

Mixed 20 23 14 23 22 14 24 20 20 22

Not hrd enough 7 7 7 5 5 8 6 8 6 6

REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 2 2 1 1



4. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          Apr 15
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom  1999


Favorable 35% 32% 32% 43% 50% 23% 40% 42% 30% 38%

Unfavorable 26 12 47 22 8 42 21 26 25 27

Mixed 22 18 20 30 23 20 22 19 24 22

Not hrd enough 16 36 1 3 19 13 15 13 20 13

REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 2 1 2 1



5. Is your opinion of former New York Senator Alfonse D'Amato favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          Apr 15
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 27% 28% 22% 32% 42% 18% 25% 30% 25% 31%

Unfavorable 38 36 40 37 16 50 44 39 37 39

Mixed 22 21 23 20 28 18 21 20 23 20

Not hrd enough 13 13 13 11 12 15 10 10 15 9

REFUSED 1 1 2 - 2 - 1 1 1 1



6. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 49% 41% 64% 44% 15% 78% 43% 43% 54% 47%

Giuliani 41 47 29 47 76 14 46 46 37 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 3

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 - 2 1 2 2 1 2

DK/NA 6 8 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6



7. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat, and Alfonse D'Amato, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 55% 48% 66% 53% 19% 81% 55% 47% 61% 54%

D'Amato 36 41 25 40 72 12 35 42 30 34

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 3

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 2 4 1 4 3 2 3

DK/NA 5 5 6 3 4 4 4 5 5 6



8. Who do you think has stronger leadership qualities -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Hillary Rodham
Clinton              40%   36%   47%   36%   16%   60%   36%   35%   43%    39%


Rudolph Giuliani 44 44 40 51 69 25 47 51 39 48

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 5 4 5 7 4 5 6 6 4 4

DK/NA 11 16 8 7 11 10 11 8 14 10



9. Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Hillary Rodham
Clinton              38%   31%   50%   33%   14%   62%   30%   36%   39%    38%


Rudolph Giuliani 39 40 33 47 70 17 42 44 36 41

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 10 11 8 10 4 9 13 10 10 10

DK/NA 13 19 9 9 12 11 14 10 15 11



10. Who do you think would be more effective in the United States Senate at getting things done for New York State -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Hillary Rodham
Clinton              44%   38%   55%   41%   19%   69%   38%   43%   46%    43%


Rudolph Giuliani 45 49 35 51 71 21 51 50 41 48

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 4 3 1 3 4 2 3 3

DK/NA 8 11 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 6



11. Who do you think cares more about the needs and problems of people like you - - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Hillary Rodham
Clinton              48%   42%   62%   41%   19%   76%   42%   44%   52%    47%


Rudolph Giuliani 37 38 28 46 68 14 41 42 33 38

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 6 8 5 4 3 4 9 7 6 7

DK/NA 8 12 4 8 9 6 8 7 9 8



12. Who do you think has a better understanding of problems and important issues facing New York State -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Hillary Rodham
Clinton              28%   22%   42%   22%   11%   48%   22%   28%   29%    27%


Rudolph Giuliani 62 67 49 69 82 41 68 66 58 63

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 3 5 4

DK/NA 6 7 5 6 4 7 5 3 8 6



13. Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Liberal 51% 49% 47% 58% 69% 43% 49% 55% 48% 52%

Moderate 29 27 31 29 15 34 32 28 29 27

Conservative 10 11 13 6 6 14 10 9 11 11

DK/NA 10 13 9 7 9 9 10 9 12 10



14. Do you think of Rudolph Giuliani more as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Liberal 13% 14% 12% 11% 10% 17% 12% 13% 12% 14%

Moderate 35 38 28 38 50 25 37 36 34 37

Conservative 36 26 45 40 27 42 36 41 31 36

DK/NA 17 23 15 10 13 17 15 10 23 13



15. Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton will or will not run for the United States Senate in New York?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Yes 49% 49% 48% 49% 47% 51% 46% 46% 51% 50%

No 40 39 40 41 41 36 44 45 35 35

DK/NA 12 12 12 10 12 13 10 9 13 14



16. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for the United States Senate in New York, would the fact that she is not currently a resident of New York bother you or not bother you?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Yes 48% 55% 33% 53% 73% 25% 52% 51% 45% 46%

No 52 45 66 46 27 73 47 49 55 53

DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - 1 1



17. How closely have you been following the case of Amadou Diallo, the African immigrant who was shot and killed by four white police officers in New York City. Would you say you have been following it very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Very closely 22% 8% 37% 25% 19% 28% 19% 25% 19% 26%

Smwht closely 44 38 47 52 36 45 49 45 43 44

Not too closely 22 34 11 18 29 17 22 20 25 20

Not at all 11 20 5 5 16 9 10 9 13 10

DK/NA - - - - - - - 1 - 1



18. Does Rudolph Giuliani's handling of this incident make you more likely to vote for him for Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?

                                                                          Apr 15
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


More likely 6% 5% 7% 7% 12% 2% 6% 6% 6% 7%

Less likely 33 18 51 36 10 51 31 30 35 34

No difference 50 58 39 50 63 40 52 56 45 51

DK/NA 11 19 4 7 15 7 11 8 14 8