May 24, 1999 - Pataki Ties Hillary Clinton In New York Senate Run, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; First Lady Tops Mayor Giuliani 48 - 42 Percent
Gov. George Pataki would get 45 percent to First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton's 47 percent -- a statistical tie -- if they faced each other in a race for the U.S. Senate, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

Mrs. Clinton would top New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 48 - 42 percent in their undeclared Senate race. That compares to a 49 - 41 percent lead for Mrs. Clinton in an April 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College Poll.

This latest poll of 807 New York State registered voters was conducted May 18 - 23, in the middle of the media coverage surrounding Gov. Pataki's "surprise" announcement scheduled for today. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

"Clinton-Pataki is a standoff in this first measure of a possible Senate race," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Don't sell Gov. Pataki short. For a politician often depicted as easy-going, he's been brilliant in attracting attention to today's announcement. He has titillated the political world for more than a week."

In the Clinton-Pataki race:
  • Upstate voters favor Pataki 52 - 39 percent;
  • Suburban voters back Pataki 57 - 38 percent;
  • New York City voters back Clinton 63 - 27 percent;
  • Women voters back Clinton 53 - 39 percent;
  • Men voters back Pataki 53 - 39 percent, a mirror image.
In the Clinton-Giuliani race:
  • Upstate voters tie with 44 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Giuliani;
  • Suburban voters back Giuliani 55 - 37 percent;
  • New York City voters back Clinton 62 - 30 percent;
  • Women voters back Clinton 52 - 36 percent;
  • Men voters back Giuliani 50 - 42 percent.
"Upstate seems to be the key here. Asked what they think of Rudolph Giuliani, 35 percent of upstate voters say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Only 4 percent of upstaters don't have an opinion about Pataki. The Mayor and the Governor run just about the same against the First Lady in New York City and the suburbs. It's upstate that tips the balance to Pataki," Carroll said.

By a 48 - 24 percent margin, New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Pataki, with 23 percent mixed and 4 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other possible Senate candidates are:
                               Favorable    Unfavorable     Mixed    No Opinion
Clinton                           43%           29%          21%         6%
Giuliani                          36            24           24         15
U.S. Rep. Nita Lowey               9             5            6         80
U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio               9             2            9         79



"Democrat Nita Lowey and Republican Rick Lazio remain virtually unknown in the shadow of giant non-candidates," Carroll said.

In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senate, Pataki gets 45 percent, with 36 percent for Giuliani and 8 percent for Lazio.

New Yorkers remain evenly divided 48 - 51 percent, on whether it bothers them that Hillary Clinton would run for a New York Senate seat even though she doesn't live in the state.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                                                                          Apr 25
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
                   
Approve             58%   59%   46%   69%   76%   44%   61%   61%   55%   57%
                   
Disapprove          32    27    45    25    19    44    29    30    34    31
                   
DK/NA               10    13     9     7     6    11    10     8    12    12




2. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                          Apr 22
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 43% 38% 56% 34% 15% 66% 38% 37% 47% 48%

Unfavorable 29 32 21 34 56 10 31 37 24 24

Mixed 21 22 16 27 22 18 23 18 23 20

Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 7 4 7 6 7 8 5 7

REFUSED 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 1



3. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          Apr 22
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 36% 31% 33% 46% 50% 24% 41% 41% 32% 35%

Unfavorable 24 10 47 19 11 37 20 22 26 26

Mixed 24 22 20 34 18 25 26 25 23 22

Hvn't hrd enough 15 35 - 1 20 14 12 11 18 16

REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



4. Is your opinion of New York Congresswoman Nita Lowey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                          Apr 15
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 9% 3% 13% 14% 6% 12% 9% 8% 10% 12%

Unfavorable 5 3 5 7 8 2 5 8 2 5

Mixed 6 4 7 7 6 5 8 6 6 6

Hvn't hrd enough 80 90 73 72 80 79 78 77 82 77

REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - - 1 1



5. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          Apr 15
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 9% 4% 8% 18% 11% 10% 8% 10% 8% 8%

Unfavorable 2 1 5 2 3 3 2 3 2 3

Mixed 9 6 7 14 11 9 7 10 8 6

Hvn't hrd enough 79 88 79 66 76 76 83 77 81 82

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - 1 1



6. Is your opinion of Governor George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          Oct 28
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1998


Favorable 48% 51% 34% 62% 69% 33% 51% 55% 43% 55%

Unfavorable 24 20 37 15 13 33 25 24 25 18

Mixed 23 25 23 22 16 29 23 19 27 22

Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 6 1 3 6 2 2 5 4

REFUSED - 1 - - - - - - - 1



7. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                          Apr 22
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 48% 44% 62% 37% 16% 73% 45% 42% 52% 49%

Giuliani 42 43 30 55 77 18 45 50 36 41

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 3 4 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 2

DK/NA 5 7 3 5 3 5 6 3 7 6



8. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat and Rick Lazio, the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                          Mar 23
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 52% 47% 66% 41% 21% 77% 49% 46% 56% 56%

Lazio 30 33 19 41 62 10 32 37 25 23

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 3

DK/NA 12 13 9 12 11 8 14 10 13 16



9. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat and George Pataki, the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                              
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Rodham Clinton 47% 39% 63% 38% 14% 72% 44% 39% 53%

Pataki 45 52 27 57 80 21 47 53 39

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 - 2 2 1

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2

DK/NA 4 4 7 1 2 5 5 4 5



12. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Rudolph Giuliani, Rick Lazio, and George Pataki, for whom would you vote?

                          Registered
                          Republicans


Giuliani 36%

Lazio 8

Pataki 45

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 1

DK/NA 9



13. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for the United States Senate in New York, would the fact that she is not currently a resident of New York bother you or not bother you?
                                                                          Apr 22
                    Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Yes it would 
bother me           48%   53%   29%   62%   70%   30%   50%   51%   46%   48%


No it would not bother me 51 44 70 37 28 69 48 48 53 52

DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1