June 30, 1999 - Clinton Opens Senate Campaign Tied With Giuliani, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Mayor Closes Gap With Big Gain Among Upstate VoterS
As she takes the first formal step in her race for the U.S. Senate from New York, First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is in a statistical tie with New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani; she gets 46 percent of the vote, to his 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

This is the first time Mrs. Clinton has not lead Mayor Giuliani since the independent Quinnipiac College Poll first began measuring this undeclared Senate race February 3.

This latest poll of 1,131 New York State registered voters was conducted June 22 - 28. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

"What turned a late-May Clinton lead into a late-June standoff? A big swing upstate," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Mrs. Clinton carries New York City. It's a Democratic town. Mayor Giuliani carries the suburbs. He's always been strong there. So upstate looks like the battleground. Clinton held a 12-point lead upstate in February, in the first flush of publicity about her possible entry into the race. Now, Giuliani has a 13-point lead upstate."

Giuliani leads 51 - 38 percent among upstate voters and 54 - 38 percent among suburban voters, while Clinton takes New York City 63 - 29 percent.

Clinton leads 52 - 38 percent among women voters, while Giuliani leads 52 - 38 percent with men voters, a mirror image.

Giuliani is the clear winner in a Republican Primary, with 67 percent. U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio gets 6 percent and U.S. Rep. Peter King gets 9 percent of the GOP vote.

Clinton would beat Lazio 50 - 34 percent, and top King, 51 - 31 percent.

"There is no Democratic challenge to Clinton and Giuliani looks like he'd have to work hard to lose the Republican Primary. Congressmen Lazio and King barely score in a GOP Primary and have almost no recognition among voters in general. But there's 30 percent of the electorate who will vote for any Republican facing Hillary Clinton," Carroll said.

By a 40 - 33 percent margin, New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Clinton, with 20 percent mixed and 6 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other possible Senate candidates are:
                     Favorable       Unfavorable          Mixed          No Opinion
Giuliani                33%             27%                26%              14%
King                     9               5                  9               77
Lazio                    7               4                  6               83



By a 60 - 35 percent margin, New York State voters say Clinton "cares about the needs and problems of people like you." By a 51 - 39 percent margin, voters say Giuliani cares. Women say Clinton cares 70 - 25 percent, while men say she cares 48 - 46 percent. Women say Giuliani cares 48 -40 percent, while men say he cares 55 - 38 percent.

By a 70 - 27 percent margin, voters say Clinton "has the personality to be an effective U.S. Senator." By a 55 - 37 percent margin, voters say Giuliani has that "personality."

But by a 64 - 29 percent margin, voters say Giuliani "understands the issues and problems facing New York State. Voters say 39 - 53 percent that Clinton has that understanding.

"In the character trait where we saw the biggest difference, familiarity with New York's needs, Giuliani outpoints Clinton overwhelmingly," Carroll said.

"Hillary Clinton does score better than Giuliani for `caring' and for `personality.'"

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York in the year 2000 - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


A lot 34% 28% 40% 37% 39% 33% 34% 37% 32%

Some 37 39 34 36 36 38 36 33 40

Only a little 21 24 20 17 18 21 23 21 21

None at all 8 9 7 10 8 8 7 9 8

DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                          May 24
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 40% 32% 55% 35% 15% 63% 36% 34% 45% 43%

Unfavorable 33 38 22 38 59 12 36 43 25 29

Mixed 20 22 17 22 20 17 24 17 23 21

Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 5 5 6 7 4 6 6 6

REFUSED 1 1 - - - - 1 - 1 1



6. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          May 24
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 33% 30% 31% 43% 53% 21% 34% 41% 28% 36%

Unfavorable 27 14 47 24 7 43 23 26 28 24

Mixed 26 27 21 29 25 25 27 23 28 24

Hvn't hrd enough 14 30 1 3 14 11 16 10 17 15

REFUSED - - 1 - - - - - - 1



7. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                          May 24
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 7% 4% 5% 14% 8% 6% 6% 9% 5% 9%

Unfavorable 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 6 3 2

Mixed 6 4 8 8 4 7 7 6 7 9

Hvn't hrd enough 83 89 82 73 84 82 83 79 85 79

REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - - - - 1



8. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Peter King favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 9% 6% 9% 16% 10% 8% 10% 12% 8%

Unfavorable 5 2 6 8 3 6 5 8 3

Mixed 9 5 9 14 9 9 8 9 9

Hvn't hrd enough 77 87 76 61 77 77 76 72 81

REFUSED - - - - - - - - -



9. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                          May 24
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 46% 38% 63% 38% 13% 75% 40% 38% 52% 48%

Giuliani 44 51 29 54 80 18 47 52 38 42

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 3 3 3 2 2 1 4 4 2 3

DK/NA 5 7 3 5 3 5 6 4 6 5



10. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat and Rick Lazio, the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                          May 24
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 50% 42% 67% 40% 17% 77% 45% 41% 56% 52%

Lazio 34 40 17 44 68 11 33 42 28 30

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 3 4 4 2 4 2 4 4 2 4

DK/NA 12 13 10 13 9 9 15 11 13 12



11. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat and Peter King, the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Rodham Clinton 51% 44% 66% 42% 18% 79% 45% 41% 58%

King 31 39 16 38 64 9 32 39 25

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 4 4 3 5 4 2 5 6 3

DK/NA 13 12 12 14 11 9 16 12 13



31. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Rudolph Giuliani, Rick Lazio, and Peter King, for whom would you vote?

                     Registered
                     Republicans


Giuliani 67%

Lazio 6

King 9

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1

WON'T VOTE (VOL) 4

DK/NA 12



32. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Hillary Rodham Clinton or not?

Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                                                                          Feb 23
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Yes 60% 54% 72% 55% 36% 80% 56% 48% 70% 68%

No 35 40 23 41 57 16 39 46 25 26

DK/NA 5 6 5 4 6 5 5 6 5 6



33. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- has the personality to be an effective United States Senator or not?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 70% 68% 76% 66% 50% 85% 68% 60% 78%

No 27 28 21 31 47 12 28 37 18

DK/NA 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4



34. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- understands the issues and problems facing New York State or not?

                                                                          Feb 23
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Yes 39% 33% 52% 34% 19% 57% 35% 32% 45% 44%

No 53 60 42 55 76 34 55 62 45 43

DK/NA 8 8 7 12 5 10 10 6 10 13



35. Would you say that Hillary Rodham Clinton -- would be good at getting things done for New York State in the United States Senate, or not?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 60% 56% 70% 55% 37% 78% 57% 49% 69%

No 33 38 24 35 54 16 36 44 24

DK/NA 7 6 6 11 9 6 7 7 7



36. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Rudolph Giuliani or not?

Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                                                                          Feb 23
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Yes 51% 48% 45% 66% 69% 38% 55% 55% 48% 53%

No 39 34 54 29 20 54 36 38 40 33

DK/NA 10 18 2 6 11 8 8 7 12 14



37. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- has the personality to be an effective United States Senator or not?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 55% 61% 42% 60% 76% 37% 58% 59% 51%

No 37 24 56 34 13 55 33 36 37

DK/NA 9 16 2 6 11 8 8 6 11



38. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- understands the issues and problems facing New York State or not?

                                                                          Feb 23
                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Yes 64% 61% 59% 73% 80% 51% 66% 70% 58% 66%

No 29 26 40 22 13 41 28 26 32 24

DK/NA 7 13 1 5 7 7 6 4 9 10



39. Would you say that Rudolph Giuliani -- would be good at getting things done for New York State in the United States Senate, or not?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 58% 60% 51% 64% 75% 45% 61% 63% 54%

No 31 25 43 28 15 45 29 30 32

DK/NA 10 15 6 8 10 11 10 7 13