July 29, 1999 - Clinton-Giuliani Locked In Dead Heat In Senate Race, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Big Gender Gap And City-Suburban Split
After three weeks of her New York State "listening tour," First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is locked in a dead heat -- 45 to 45 percent -- with New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

The gender gap has widened in this race: Men back Mayor Giuliani 53 - 36 percent, while women back Mrs. Clinton 52 - 39 percent, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds.

There also is a big split between city and suburban voters: New York City voters back Clinton 62 - 33 percent, while suburban voters back Giuliani 55 - 35 percent. Giuliani leads among upstate voters 48 - 38 percent.

This latest poll of 1,241 New York State registered voters was conducted July 20 - 27 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

"Mrs. Clinton has been big with female voters, although even here some of her support has slipped. But look at Giuliani's huge lead among male voters. Men gave Mrs. Clinton a 46 - 27 percent favorability rating in Quinnipiac College's February poll, right after the impeachment vote. Now it's a negative 30 - 41 percent rating. For men, it's a mix of anti- Clinton and pro-Giuliani. These are numbers we'll have to watch," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Gender gaps appear in many contests. But this is a big one and it goes in both directions."

"New York City elected Giuliani twice, but it's a Democratic town and it's big for Mrs. Clinton. The suburbs? Quinnipiac College pollsters talked to lots of people out there and we found that they prefer Giuliani."

Clinton would beat U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio 50 - 32 percent and top U.S. Rep. Peter King 50 - 30 percent.

"This is a troubling sign for Mrs. Clinton, since she barely hits the 50 percent mark against two barely-known Republican challengers," Carroll said.

By a 37 - 34 percent margin, New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Clinton, with 21 percent mixed and 8 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other possible Senate candidates are:
             Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Giuliani       34%             27%          25%         13%
King            8               7            9          76
Lazio           8               4            7          80



By a 70 - 23 percent margin, New York State voters say Clinton would work well with other Senators. Voters say 57 - 30 percent that Giuliani would work well with his Senate colleagues.

In two measures of the "carpetbagger" issue:
  • Voters say by a 61 - 31 percent margin that Clinton would pay attention to the needs of New Yorkers if she were elected. These same voters say 70 - 23 percent that Giuliani would pay attention to New Yorkers' needs.
  • Voters say 52 - 46 percent that it "bothers" them that Clinton is not a New Yorker. Only 17 percent of voters are "bothered" that Giuliani would not finish his term as Mayor if elected to the Senate.
The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


A lot 37% 32% 38% 44% 46% 32% 36% 44% 32% 34%

Some 37 39 36 33 34 40 37 33 39 37

Only a little 20 22 19 17 16 20 20 16 22 21

None at all 7 7 7 6 5 8 6 7 7 8

DK/NA - 1 - - - - - - - -



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 37% 30% 50% 32% 11% 60% 30% 30% 42% 40%

Unfavorable 34 40 21 40 70 12 33 41 29 33

Mixed 21 20 20 22 13 21 26 20 22 20

Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 8 6 6 8 10 9 8 6

REFUSED - - 1 - - - 1 1 - 1



6. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                    June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 34% 27% 31% 51% 58% 21% 33% 37% 32% 33%

Unfavorable 27 16 46 23 8 43 25 27 27 27

Mixed 25 27 22 23 20 26 26 25 25 26

Hvn't hrd enough 13 28 1 2 12 9 15 10 15 14

REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 -



7. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 8% 4% 6% 18% 13% 7% 6% 11% 6% 7%

Unfavorable 4 3 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 4

Mixed 7 4 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 80 89 78 68 76 82 81 76 83 83

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 -



8. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Peter King favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 8% 3% 8% 16% 8% 9% 6% 10% 6% 9%

Unfavorable 7 3 9 11 9 6 7 9 5 5

Mixed 9 5 9 15 9 7 12 10 8 9

Hvn't hrd enough 76 89 73 58 74 78 74 70 80 77

REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - -



9. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Rodham
Clinton         45%   38%   62%   35%    9%   74%   41%   36%   52%   46%


Giuliani 45 48 33 55 84 19 47 53 39 44

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 3

DK/NA 6 9 3 7 5 5 6 6 6 5



10. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat and Rick Lazio, the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Rodham
Clinton         50%   41%   68%   41%   14%   78%   46%   42%   55%   50%


Lazio 32 38 18 40 66 9 32 39 26 34

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 3 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 4 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 4 3

DK/NA 13 14 10 13 13 10 14 11 13 12



11. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat and Peter King, the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                     June 30
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Rodham
Clinton         50%   42%   67%   42%   15%   78%   47%   43%   56%   51%


King 30 36 18 35 61 9 30 35 26 31

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 1

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 5 4 3 7 5 3 5 6 3 4

DK/NA 14 16 10 14 16 10 15 13 14 13



12. If Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected United States Senator from New York, do you think she will work well with other Senators or not?

                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 70% 66% 77% 65% 46% 86% 69% 64% 74%

No 23 24 17 27 43 9 23 28 18

DK/NA 8 9 5 8 11 5 8 8 7



13. If Rudolph Giuliani is elected United States Senator from New York, do you think he will work well with other Senators or not?

                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 57% 66% 44% 58% 76% 44% 58% 60% 54%

No 30 15 47 32 11 44 28 28 31

DK/NA 13 19 9 10 13 11 13 11 15



14. If Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected United States Senator from New York, do you think she will pay attention to the concerns of New York State residents or not?

                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 61% 54% 74% 58% 31% 84% 59% 54% 67%

No 31 36 22 34 60 12 31 39 25

DK/NA 8 10 5 8 9 5 9 7 9



15. If Rudolph Giuliani is elected United States Senator from New York, do you think he will pay attention to the concerns of New York State residents or not?

                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 70% 67% 63% 83% 87% 64% 69% 75% 66%

No 23 22 32 13 10 28 25 20 26

DK/NA 7 11 5 3 3 8 6 5 8



16. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for the United States Senate in New York, would the fact that she is not currently a resident of New York bother you or not bother you?

                                                                     May 24
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999
Yes, would
bother me       52%   59%   39%   58%   82%   29%   57%   56%   49%   48%


No, wouldn't bother me 46 39 59 42 17 70 41 43 49 51

DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 1 2 1 1 1



17. If Rudolph Giuliani were to run and is elected United States Senator from New York in the year 2000, would the fact that he would not have completed his term as Mayor of New York City bother you or not bother you?

                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes, would bother me 17% 14% 23% 15% 13% 23% 16% 15% 19%

No, wouldn't bother me 81 83 75 83 85 75 82 83 78

DK/NA 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 3