September 15, 1999 - Bradley Ties Gore Among New York Democrats, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Suburbs Are Key As Bradley Beats Bush
Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley has closed an 18-point gap to tie Vice President Al Gore in a New York State Democratic Primary, with 42 percent for Gore and 40 percent for Bradley, a statistical tie, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

In a general election match-up, Bradley beats Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican front-runner, 47 - 37 percent.

Vice President Gore ties Gov. Bush 46 - 43 percent in a general election match-up.

In a July 1 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Gore beat Bradley 52 - 34 percent in a Democratic Primary. Bradley cut Gore's lead in half, to 47 - 38 percent, in an August 2 Quinnipiac College poll.

"Sen. Bradley, the former Knick, is scoring from the outside, overcoming a big deficit to tie up the Democratic game in New York," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"With the Primary just six months away, Vice President Gore better get his incredible shrinking candidacy in gear and stop the Bradley fast break.

"Gov. Bush is going nowhere in New York. He's slipped a little in his match-up with Bradley, and his favorability ratings have dropped a little, also."

In the Bradley-Bush contest, the Republican wins upstate 47 - 36 percent, but the Democrat takes New York City 59 - 25 percent and the pivotal suburban vote 48 - 36 percent.

Republicans favor Bush 70 - 20 percent, while Democrats back Bradley 71 - 14 percent and independent voters go with Bradley 48 - 34 percent.

Bush bests Gore 50 - 40 percent upstate, while Gore takes New York City 58 - 29 percent. In this matchup, the suburbs swing to the Republican 50 - 40 percent.

Republicans back Bush 77 - 15 percent, while Democrats back Gore 79 - 12 percent and independent voters swing to the Republican candidate 48 - 39 percent.

Male voters also shift in the two hypothetical races: Men back Bradley over Bush by a 48 - 41 percent edge; men back Bush over Gore by a 49 - 43 percent edge.

"The former Knick scores with men and the small-town boy who became a Senator from a suburban state wins the suburbs," Carroll said. "But more than 40 percent of voters still say they don't have an opinion about Bradley."

By a 37- 4 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Bradley, with 14 percent mixed and 43 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are:
                        Favorable      Unfavorable      Mixed     No Opinion

George W. Bush             29              23            29          19
Al Gore                    30              25            33          11



"Bush has dropped from a 34 - 19 percent favorability rating to 29 - 23 percent," Carroll said. "As New Yorkers think more about `W,' they like him less."

Gov. Pataki gets a 60 - 27 percent approval rating from New York State voters, up from 56 - 34 percent in an Aug. 2 Quinnipiac College Poll.

From September 7 - 13, Quinnipiac College surveyed 911 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 60% 66% 48% 67% 79% 48% 60% 66% 56% 56%

Disapprove 27 22 38 23 12 41 26 24 30 34

DK/NA 12 12 14 10 8 12 14 10 14 10



22. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


A lot 27% 26% 29% 25% 34% 25% 25% 34% 21% 27%

Some 39 39 37 44 35 40 43 35 43 42

Only a little 26 27 27 24 24 27 26 25 27 24

None at all 7 8 7 6 7 8 6 6 8 7

DK/NA - - - 1 - 1 - - - -



23. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 30% 27% 37% 26% 17% 47% 25% 31% 29% 31%

Unfavorable 25 27 17 30 42 11 25 30 20 28

Mixed 33 35 33 30 30 29 40 30 35 32

Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 12 13 10 12 9 7 14 8

DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -



24. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 37% 29% 40% 48% 34% 40% 42% 43% 33% 36%

Unfavorable 4 4 4 5 7 4 2 5 4 8

Mixed 14 11 19 13 14 12 16 18 11 19

Hvn't hrd enough 43 55 35 33 45 43 39 33 50 37

DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 -



25. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 29% 33% 21% 31% 55% 11% 27% 34% 25% 34%

Unfavorable 23 17 31 21 4 40 20 24 22 19

Mixed 29 32 23 30 26 23 36 25 32 25

Hvn't hrd enough 19 17 23 18 14 24 17 17 21 21

DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 1 - 1 1 1



26. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom you would vote?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Gore 46% 40% 58% 40% 15% 79% 39% 43% 48% 45%

Bush 43 50 29 50 77 12 48 49 39 43

SMONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 1 2 2 1 - 1 2 2 1 2

DK/NA 8 7 10 8 6 6 9 6 10 8



27. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom you would vote?

                                                                        Aug 2
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Bradley 47% 36% 59% 48% 20% 71% 48% 48% 46% 46%

Bush 37 47 25 36 70 14 34 41 34 39

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 2 2 3 2 - 4 1 2 3 1

WOULDN'T VOTE (VOL) 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

DK/NA 12 13 11 13 10 9 14 8 16 12



29. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                  Registered
                  Democrats


Aug 2 Tot 1999

Gore 42% 47%

Bradley 40 38

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 1

WON'T VOTE (VOL) 2 1

DK/NA 15 13