October 3, 1999 - Bush Loses Big To Bradley In New York, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Gore Slide Continues; Come Clean On Cocaine, Voters Tell Candidates; New Yorkers Mixed On Clinton Fatigue
Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley has opened a 19-point lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in New York, beating the likely GOP Presidential candidate 51 - 32 percent, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. Vice President Al Gore gets 43 percent to Bush's 41 percent, too close to call, the poll finds.

In a September 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Bradley beat Bush 47 - 37 percent. In that and prior polls, Bush and Gore had been locked in a tie.

A September 27 Quinnipiac College Poll of New Jersey voters, where Bradley has the native son advantage, shows him beating Bush 55 - 35 percent.

In a Democratic Primary, Bradley gets 44 percent to Gore's 41 percent, a tie.

From September 24 - 30, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,049 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 452 registered Democrats, with a margin error for that group of +/- 4.6 percent.

"Gov. Bush's slip is showing as he prepares to introduce himself to New York voters. And this drop in both matchup and favorability follows a slip in New Jersey also," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"As New Yorkers look at the Texas Governor, they're thinking he's not their kind of guy. Bush is a leader, voters tell Quinnipiac College pollsters, but on domestic and foreign policy issues, they don't like where he's leading," Carroll said.

Republicans favor Bush over Bradley 63 - 20 percent; Democrats back Bradley 75 - 12 percent and independent voters go with Bradley 50 - 31 percent. Upstate, Bush gets 43 percent to Bradley's 40 percent, a tie; Bradley wins 62 - 19 percent in New York City and 54 - 32 percent in the suburbs.

Republicans back Bush over Gore 79 - 11 percent; Democrats back Gore 72 - 16 percent and independent voters swing to the Republican 43 - 36 percent. Bush bests Gore 49 - 36 percent upstate, while Gore takes New York City 58 - 24 percent. In this matchup, the suburbs swing to the Republican 49 - 36 percent.

Male voters also shift in the two hypothetical races: Men back Bradley over Bush by a 52 - 35 percent edge; men back Bush over Gore by a 46 - 40 percent edge.

By a 36 - 6 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Bradley, with 17 percent mixed and 41 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are:
                    Favorable      Unfavorable      Mixed      No Opinion

George W. Bush         25%             24%            29%          22%
Al Gore                24              30             34           12


Bush dropped from a 34 - 19 percent favorability rating in an August 2 Quinnipiac College Poll to 29 - 23 percent in the September 15 poll to 25 - 24 percent today.

Gore has dropped from 31 - 28 percent August 2 to a negative 24 - 30 percent today.

New Yorkers say, 56 - 41 percent, they have a right to know if a Presidential candidate used cocaine in the past. On their right to know about other personal issues, voters say:
  • Past marijuana use -- voters have a right to know 28 - 69 percent;
  • Past alcohol problems, 57 - 41 percent;
  • Extramarital affair, 26 - 71 percent;
  • Tax cheating, 83 - 15 percent;
  • Avoided active military service, 70 - 27 percent.
"Candidates have a right to some privacy, but New Yorkers draw the line with some issues and say they have a right to know about them," Carroll said. "They don't care -- or say they don't care -- about cheating on a spouse or smoking pot, but they feel they have a right to know about cocaine, alcohol, taxes, and even about military service."

By a 52 - 42 percent margin, voters want the next President to offer policies similar to those of President Clinton. But only 16 percent of voters want the next President to have Clinton's personal qualities, while 79 percent say no.

Looking at Bush's characteristics and qualities, voters say:
  • 44 - 35 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 50 - 27 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 61 - 21 that the has strong leadership qualities;
  • 42 - 28 that he can keep the economy strong;
  • 34 - 44 that he agrees with them on social issues;
  • 33 - 32 percent that he has a good understanding of foreign policy.
Looking at Gore, voters say:
  • 68 - 24 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 62 - 28 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 36 - 51 that the has strong leadership qualities;
  • 44 - 35 that he can keep the economy strong;
  • 54 - 33 that he agrees with them on social issues;
  • 57 - 26 percent that he has a good understanding of foreign policy.
Looking at Bradley, voters say:
  • 61 - 11 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 64 - 9 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 57 - 15 that the has strong leadership qualities;
  • 38 - 20 that he can keep the economy strong;
  • 48 - 22 that he agrees with them on social issues;
  • 34 - 23 percent that he has a good understanding of foreign policy.
"Gore beats Bush and holds up well to Bradley on every personal quality except leadership. That's the curse of being Vice President, the No. 2 guy," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 287-5201

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?
                                                                       Sep 16
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 61% 57% 72% 55% 32% 82% 56% 60% 62% 60%

Disapprove 36 39 26 42 66 15 39 37 35 36

DK/NA 3 4 2 3 2 3 5 3 3 4



8. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                      Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


A lot 32% 30% 32% 33% 35% 32% 29% 37% 27% 27%

Some 42 41 42 43 49 40 39 38 45 39

Only a little 19 19 19 20 12 20 23 20 19 26

None at all 7 9 6 5 4 7 8 5 8 7

DK/NA - - 1 - - - - - - -



9. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 24% 21% 31% 20% 11% 39% 18% 24% 24% 30%

Unfavorable 30 33 19 38 56 12 32 33 27 25

Mixed 34 33 37 31 24 38 34 32 35 33

Hvn't hrd enough 12 12 13 11 9 11 16 10 14 11

REFUSED - - 1 - - - - - 1 1



10. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   199


Favorable 36% 29% 40% 42% 30% 42% 35% 45% 29% 37%

Unfavorable 6 5 5 9 8 5 5 7 5 4

Mixed 17 16 16 19 24 13 17 18 16 14

Hvn't hrd enough 41 49 38 29 37 39 43 30 49 43

REFUSED - - - 1 1 - - - - 2



11. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 25% 33% 15% 24% 57% 10% 21% 28% 22% 29%

Unfavorable 24 20 28 26 6 39 23 23 25 23

Mixed 29 27 30 30 23 28 34 29 28 29

Hvn't hrd enough 22 19 26 20 15 24 22 19 24 19

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - 1



12. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Gore 43% 36% 58% 36% 11% 72% 36% 40% 46% 46%

Bush 41 49 24 49 79 16 43 46 37 43

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 2 1 4 3 2 2

WON'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 2 1 3 5 3 3 1

DK/NA 10 10 12 9 8 9 12 7 13 8



13. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Bradley 51% 40% 62% 54% 20% 75% 50% 52% 50% 47%

Bush 32 43 19 32 63 12 31 35 31 37

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

WON'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2

DK/NA 13 13 13 11 14 9 15 9 15 12



15. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                  Registered
                  Democrats


Sep 15 Tot 1999

Gore 41% 42% Bradley 44 40

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WON'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 13 15



16. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Texas Governor George W. Bush or not? Would you say that Texas Governor George W. Bush -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 44% 49% 34% 46% 74% 25% 43% 46% 42% No 35 30 42 33 10 51 34 37 32

DK/NA 22 21 24 21 16 25 23 17 26



17. Would you say that Texas Governor George W. Bush -- is honest and trustworthy or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 50% 54% 41% 53% 75% 37% 46% 54% 46% No 27 23 32 26 10 34 30 28 26

DK/NA 23 22 27 21 15 28 23 18 28



18. Would you say that Texas Governor George W. Bush -- has strong leadership qualities or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 61% 65% 57% 60% 78% 49% 63% 62% 60% No 21 19 24 22 10 31 19 23 20

DK/NA 18 16 19 18 11 20 18 15 19



19. Would you say that Texas Governor George W. Bush -- can keep the economy strong or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 42% 46% 35% 43% 66% 24% 46% 47% 38% No 28 25 33 26 9 42 24 27 28

DK/NA 30 28 32 31 25 34 30 26 34



20. Would you say that Texas Governor George W. Bush -- generally agrees with you on social issues or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 34% 40% 26% 34% 63% 13% 36% 38% 31% No 44 37 55 42 17 66 39 46 42

DK/NA 22 23 19 24 20 21 25 16 27



21. Would you say that Texas Governor George W. Bush -- has a good understanding of foreign policy or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 33% 35% 27% 36% 54% 21% 32% 34% 32% No 32 32 37 28 16 42 32 37 28

DK/NA 35 33 36 36 30 37 36 29 40



22. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Vice President Al Gore or not? Would you say that Vice President Al Gore -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 68% 64% 75% 64% 55% 83% 62% 68% 67% No 24 26 19 27 38 12 27 27 22

DK/NA 8 9 6 9 7 5 11 5 11



23. Would you say that Vice President Al Gore -- is honest and trustworthy or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 62% 59% 66% 62% 49% 75% 59% 64% 60% No 28 30 23 29 40 16 30 29 27

DK/NA 10 11 11 9 11 8 11 7 13



24. Would you say that Vice President Al Gore -- has strong leadership qualities or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 36% 35% 46% 27% 22% 50% 32% 35% 37% No 51 52 42 61 69 38 56 56 48

DK/NA 12 13 12 12 9 13 13 9 15



25. Would you say that Vice President Al Gore -- can keep the economy strong or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 44% 40% 51% 39% 25% 59% 40% 48% 40% No 35 38 27 39 54 21 38 37 33

DK/NA 22 21 22 22 21 20 22 15 27



26. Would you say that Vice President Al Gore -- generally agrees with you on social issues or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 54% 48% 64% 52% 28% 75% 53% 54% 55% No 33 38 25 37 59 16 34 40 28

DK/NA 12 14 11 11 13 9 14 6 17



27. Would you say that Vice President Al Gore -- has a good understanding of foreign policy or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 57% 55% 66% 49% 45% 68% 57% 56% 58% No 26 26 19 35 36 17 28 32 22

DK/NA 16 18 14 16 19 14 15 12 20



28. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley or not? Would you say that former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley -- cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 61% 51% 64% 73% 62% 64% 61% 68% 55% No 11 12 11 8 11 9 11 13 9

DK/NA 29 37 26 19 26 26 28 20 36



29. Would you say that former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley -- is honest and trustworthy or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 64% 54% 67% 77% 68% 66% 66% 74% 56% No 9 10 8 9 6 8 10 9 9

DK/NA 27 36 25 14 26 26 24 17 35



30. Would you say that former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley -- has strong leadership qualities or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 57% 51% 61% 64% 56% 59% 61% 68% 49% No 15 15 14 16 14 15 15 15 14

DK/NA 28 35 25 21 30 26 24 17 37



31. Would you say that former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley -- can keep the economy strong or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 38% 32% 44% 41% 35% 41% 39% 46% 32% No 20 22 19 20 22 19 21 24 18

DK/NA 41 46 36 40 43 40 40 30 50



32. Would you say that former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley -- generally agrees with you on social issues or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 48% 38% 57% 52% 37% 56% 49% 55% 42% No 22 24 17 23 29 17 21 23 20

DK/NA 31 38 26 25 34 27 29 22 37



33. Would you say that former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley -- has a good understanding of foreign policy or not?

                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 34% 29% 41% 35% 29% 36% 39% 43% 28% No 23 25 19 25 27 23 21 25 22

DK/NA 42 46 40 40 44 41 40 32 51



34. Thinking about the 2000 Presidential election, would you like to see a president who offers policies and programs similar to those of the Clinton administration, OR would you like to see a president who offers different policies and programs?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Similar policies 52% 46% 62% 50% 24% 75% 46% 50% 53%

Different policies 42 49 32 44 71 20 47 45 40

DK/NA 6 5 6 7 5 6 6 5 7



35. Now thinking about both the strengths and weaknesses of Bill Clinton as a person, would you like to see the next president have personal qualities similar to Bill Clinton, OR would you like to see a president who has different personal qualities?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Similar qualities 16% 14% 20% 14% 9% 21% 15% 17% 15%

Different qualities 79 82 73 83 89 72 80 78 80

DK/NA 5 4 7 4 2 7 4 5 5



36. I'm going to read you a list of behaviors. Please tell me whether you think voters have the right to know if a candidate for President has done any of the following things. Please keep in mind that they are not meant to describe any particular candidate. Do you think voters have the right to know or don't have the right to know.. If a candidate for President had an extramarital affair?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Right to know 26% 26% 24% 27% 36% 19% 26% 29% 23%

No/Do not have right to know 71 71 74 69 58 80 71 69 74

DK/NA 3 3 2 4 6 2 3 2 3



37. Do you think voters have the right to know or don't have the right to know.. If a candidate for President had used marijuana in the past?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Right to know 28% 28% 29% 27% 35% 22% 30% 34% 24%

No/Do not have right to know 69 70 67 70 64 75 68 63 74

DK/NA 3 2 4 3 2 3 2 2 3



38. Do you think voters have the right to know or don't have the right to know.. If a candidate for President had used cocaine in the past?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Right to know 56% 59% 56% 53% 60% 52% 56% 58% 55%

No/Do not have right to know 41 40 40 43 36 44 41 39 42

DK/NA 3 2 4 5 4 3 3 3 3



39. Do you think voters have the right to know or don't have the right to know.. If a candidate for President had an alcohol problem in the past?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Right to know 57% 57% 56% 59% 63% 53% 59% 58% 56%

No/Do not have right to know 41 42 42 36 35 45 39 40 41

DK/NA 2 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 2



40. Do you think voters have the right to know or don't have the right to know.. If a candidate for President had cheated on their taxes in the past?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Right to know 83% 84% 81% 84% 87% 81% 81% 82% 84%

No/Do not have right to know 15 15 15 14 12 17 16 16 14

DK/NA 2 1 4 2 1 2 3 2 2



41. Do you think voters have the right to know or don't have the right to know.. If a candidate for President had avoided active military service in the past?

                     Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes/Right to know 70% 69% 66% 73% 80% 59% 72% 72% 67%

No/Do not have right to know 27 28 30 23 19 36 25 26 29

DK/NA 3 3 4 3 2 4 3 2 4