October 5, 1999 - Giuliani Gets 46 To Clinton's 43 In New York Senate Race, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Voters Say No Thanks To Trump, Beatty, Buchanan
The undeclared U.S. Senate race between New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton remains locked in a dead heat, with 46 percent for Giuliani and 43 percent for Mrs. Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

In a September 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College Poll, Clinton had 45 percent to Giuliani's 44 percent.

Gone are the double-digit leads the First Lady enjoyed when speculation first surfaced that she would seek the New York Senate seat.

By a 32 - 34 percent margin, New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Clinton, with 25 percent mixed and 8 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Giuliani's favorability ratings are 35 - 26 percent, with 26 percent mixed and 12 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"While Mayor Giuliani has dominated the headlines with his outspoken criticism of a controversial art exhibit at the Brooklyn Museum, Mrs. Clinton has been out of the news recently. The latest results show it's still too close to call," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

If Donald Trump, Warren Beatty or Pat Buchanan runs for President on the Reform Party ticket, they would not do well with New York State voters, the Quinnipiac College Poll finds.

If Trump runs on the Reform Party ticket, 3 percent of voters say they definitely would vote for him, while 6 percent say they probably would vote for him; 22 percent say they probably would not vote for him and 66 percent say they definitely would not vote for him.

Beatty fares the same: 2 three percent of voters say they definitely would vote for him, while 7 percent say they probably would vote for him; 31 percent say they probably would not vote for him and 55 percent say they definitely would not vote for him.

If Buchanan runs, 2 percent of voters say they definitely would vote for him, while 8 percent say they probably would vote for him; 28 percent say they probably would not vote for him and 57 percent say they definitely would not vote for him.

"Like him or not, Pat Buchanan is a serious politician, but he's not a serious vote-getter in New York," Carroll said.

"Like his movies or not, Warren Beatty doesn't draw at the ballot box.

"Like his buildings or not, Donald Trump has not developed a political following in New York."

From September 24 - 30, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,049 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                                                                       Sep 15
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 57% 61% 47% 63% 81% 44% 55% 61% 54% 60%

Disapprove 31 28 40 27 12 44 32 31 32 27

DK/NA 11 11 13 11 7 12 13 9 14 12



4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                       Sep 16
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


A lot 35% 32% 36% 39% 38% 35% 36% 39% 32% 35%

Some 35 33 36 37 41 37 29 32 38 34

Only a little 21 23 20 17 15 20 24 20 21 23

None at all 9 11 7 7 5 8 12 9 9 8

DK/NA - - - - - 1 - - - -



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                       Sep 16
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 32% 29% 43% 26% 11% 51% 27% 29% 35% 37%

Unfavorable 34 39 22 41 65 12 36 42 29 34

Mixed 25 24 26 26 17 28 27 22 27 22

Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 9 6 6 7 9 7 8 6

REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 - - 1 1



6. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                       Sep 16
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 35% 28% 31% 51% 60% 22% 35% 39% 32% 37%

Unfavorable 26 18 40 21 8 42 21 26 26 27

Mixed 26 27 26 26 22 26 28 23 28 25

Hvn't hrd enough 12 26 3 2 11 10 15 11 13 11

REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1 1 1 1 1



7. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                       Sep 16
                  Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 43% 39% 58% 31% 12% 68% 38% 38% 47% 45%

Giuliani 46 47 31 62 81 21 50 50 42 44

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 2 1 3 3 3 2 2

WON'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2

DK/NA 7 9 6 5 5 7 6 6 8 7



42. If actor Warren Beatty ran for President as the Reform Party candidate in the year 2000, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Do you think you would definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

                       Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Definitely vote 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 2% 2%

Probably vote 7 7 6 7 4 7 9 6 8

Probably not vote 31 36 28 29 29 33 31 27 35

Definitely not vote 55 52 57 58 60 55 54 63 49 DK/NA 4 4 7 2 4 5 3 3 6



43. If political commentator Pat Buchanan ran for President as the Reform party candidate in the year 2000, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Do you think you would definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

                       Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Definitely vote 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2%

Probably vote 8 9 7 9 11 5 9 8 8

Probably not vote 28 32 21 30 32 25 29 24 31

Definitely not vote 57 52 65 56 49 66 55 64 52 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 4 2 5 2 6



44. If real estate developer Donald Trump ran for President as the Reform party candidate in the year 2000, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Do you think you would definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

                       Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Definitely vote 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 2%

Probably vote 6 6 6 7 7 4 8 6 7

Probably not vote 22 25 18 23 23 20 24 21 23

Definitely not vote 66 63 69 67 65 72 59 66 66

DK/NA 3 3 4 2 2 1 5 3 3