December 14, 1999 - Gore Bounces Back To Tie Bradley In New York Primary, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; McCain Gains, But Bush Remains Big GOP Leader
Vice President Al Gore has closed a 9-point gap with former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley in a New York State Democratic Primary, and now has 42 percent to Bradley's 39 percent, a statistical tie, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today. In a November 11 New York poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Bradley led 47 - 38 percent.

In a December 7 Quinnipiac College poll of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voters, Bradley had 43 percent to Gore's 42 percent, a dead heat.

Texas Gov. George W. Bush beats Arizona Sen. John McCain 49 - 24 percent in a New York Republican Primary, compared to a 56 - 17 percent lead in the November 11 Quinnipiac College poll. No other GOP contender tops 7 percent.

From December 7 - 12, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,211 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 492 registered Democrats, with a margin error for that group of +/- 4.4 percent, and 373 Republicans, with a margin of error of 5.1 percent.

"Is Vice President Gore the Son of Comeback Kid? He has bounced back in both New York and New Hampshire," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. "McCain is moving up in New York, but he's still way behind. He doesn't have the same surge that Quinnipiac College found when it polled New Hampshire Republicans December 6, showing McCain and Gov. Bush locked in a dead heat.

"Bradley's fast break has stalled and Bush is slipping a little. So the big movement lately is by Gore and McCain," Carroll added.

In possible general election matchups:
  • Gore beats Bush 47 - 39 percent, breaking out of the tie that marked that race for months;
  • Bradley beats Bush 50 - 35 percent;
  • Gore beats McCain 45 - 39 percent;
  • Bradley beats McCain 48 - 29.
In a Gore-Bush race, men split evenly at 42 - 43 percent, while women go with the Democrat 51 - 36 percent. In previous matchups, men favored Bush. In a Bradley-Bush matchup, men go with the ex-Knick 52 - 36, while women back Bradley 48 - 34 percent.

In a Gore-McCain race, men back McCain 47 - 38 percent, while women back Gore 50 - 32 percent. In a Bradley-McCain face-off, men go to Bradley 48 - 33 percent, while women back Bradley 48 - 26 percent.

By a 32 - 5 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, with 17 percent mixed and 46 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other presidential contenders are:
                        Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Bill Bradley              34%             6%           18%          41%
George W. Bush            28             29            28           15
Al Gore                   27             26            31           15



"McCain is the only major contender whose favorability rating has moved lately: He went from a 24 - 8 percent favorability to a 32 - 5 percent rating, but 46 percent of New York State voters still don't know enough about McCain to express an opinion," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 287-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 60% 61% 50% 69% 87% 44% 58% 64% 57%

Disapprove 29 28 38 20 10 42 30 28 30

DK/NA 11 11 12 10 4 14 13 9 13



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 62% 54% 73% 60% 35% 83% 59% 61% 63%

Disapprove 34 42 22 37 63 13 36 36 33

DK/NA 4 4 5 3 2 4 5 4 4



12. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


A lot 28% 26% 31% 27% 34% 26% 26% 31% 26%

Some 38 40 34 42 37 39 40 38 38

Only a little 25 25 27 24 24 26 25 24 26

None at all 8 9 9 6 6 9 9 7 10

DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



13. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 27% 24% 34% 24% 12% 43% 23% 27% 27%

Unfavorable 26 33 16 28 51 10 25 33 20

Mixed 31 30 31 32 26 32 35 29 33

Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 18 15 11 15 17 11 18

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - - 1 - 1



14. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 34% 29% 34% 42% 27% 41% 35% 40% 29%

Unfavorable 6 6 5 7 12 3 3 8 4

Mixed 18 17 20 19 20 15 21 19 18

Hvn't hrd enough 41 48 40 32 41 40 40 32 48

REFUSED 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 1



15. Is your opinion of former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 5% 4% 5% 5% 8% 3% 4% 6% 3%

Unfavorable 13 10 17 13 11 17 11 14 12

Mixed 6 7 5 6 8 5 5 6 6

Hvn't hrd enough 76 78 72 76 73 74 79 73 78

REFUSED - - 1 - - - 1 - -



16. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 28% 32% 20% 31% 52% 13% 26% 32% 25%

Unfavorable 29 25 38 27 9 44 28 29 30

Mixed 28 30 25 28 24 25 34 27 28

Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 17 14 14 18 12 12 17

REFUSED - - - - - - - - -



17. Is your opinion of Businessman Steve Forbes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 12% 14% 9% 12% 17% 8% 12% 15% 9%

Unfavorable 34 33 34 35 32 37 33 39 29

Mixed 20 20 19 22 22 17 23 21 20

Hvn't hrd enough 34 33 37 31 28 37 31 24 41

REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1



18. Is your opinion of Utah Senator Orrin Hatch favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 6% 8% 4% 6% 11% 3% 5% 8% 5%

Unfavorable 23 20 26 27 16 30 23 26 21

Mixed 12 13 11 11 16 10 12 13 11

Hvn't hrd enough 58 58 58 56 56 56 59 52 62

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



19. Is your opinion of Political Commentator Alan Keyes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 8% 7% 7% 9% 14% 4% 7% 11% 5%

Unfavorable 12 11 12 11 9 14 10 16 8

Mixed 6 7 7 5 6 6 8 7 6

Hvn't hrd enough 74 74 74 75 71 76 74 66 80

REFUSED - - 1 - - - 1 - 1



20. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 32% 33% 28% 34% 39% 26% 34% 40% 25%

Unfavorable 5 4 6 4 4 6 3 5 5

Mixed 17 13 19 19 16 18 17 16 17

Hvn't hrd enough 46 49 47 42 40 50 45 38 53

REFUSED - - 1 - - - 1 - -



21. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 47% 38% 62% 42% 12% 78% 40% 42% 51%

Bush 39 46 26 44 82 11 39 43 36

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 3 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2

DK/NA 10 11 8 11 5 8 15 11 10



22. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley 50% 41% 63% 47% 17% 76% 49% 52% 48%

Bush 35 41 24 39 74 10 32 36 34

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 - - 2 2 2 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 2

DK/NA 12 14 9 14 9 10 16 9 15



23. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat, and Arizona Senator John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Gore 45% 37% 59% 41% 17% 72% 39% 38% 50%

McCain 39 45 26 44 71 15 42 47 32

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 - 1 1 2 2 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2

DK/NA 13 13 13 12 9 11 15 12 14



24. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat, and Arizona Senator John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                  Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Bradley 48% 37% 62% 49% 21% 73% 44% 48% 48%

McCain 29 35 18 32 62 8 29 33 26

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 2 - 1 3 3 2 3

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2

DK/NA 18 22 15 17 14 15 21 15 21



26. If the Democratic Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                 Democratic Primary
                      Voters


Tot Men Wom

Gore 42% 35% 47%

Bradley 39 48 34

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1

DK/NA 16 14 17



27. If the Republican Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer, Texas Governor George W. Bush, Businessman Steve Forbes, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, Political Commentator Alan Keyes, and Arizona Senator John McCain, for whom would you vote?

                 Republican Primary
                      Voters


Tot Men Wom

Bauer 2% 2% 2%

Bush 49 44 54

Forbes 7 9 6

Hatch 1 2 -

Keyes 1 2 1

McCain 24 29 20

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3

DK/NA 12 9 15