August 3, 2005 - Only Giuliani Can Beat Spitzer For New York Gov, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sen. Clinton Tops Pataki As State's Presidential Choice
If he decided to run for New York State Governor next year, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani would top State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer 49 - 42 percent, the only one of several high visibility Republican names to top the likely Democratic candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Spitzer has gained ground since trailing Giuliani 59 - 34 percent in an April 14, 2004 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In other hypothetical matchups:
  • Spitzer beating New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 51 - 34 percent, with a 50 - 38 percent lead among New York City voters;
  • Spitzer over former Independence Party candidate Thomas Golisano 58 - 22 percent;
  • Spitzer topping former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld 60 - 16 percent;
  • Spitzer over Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro 59 - 21 percent.
"We list three celebrities: Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg and District Attorney Pirro; one carpetbagger, Gov. Weld, and one prodigal, Tom Golisano. Spitzer trounces every one of them - except the top celebrity, America's Mayor, Rudy Giuliani," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Bloomberg says he won't run for Governor and New Yorkers think he's right. Golisano spent $70 million to run third last time and he's out of the money this time. Pirro says she'll run for some state job, but Governor looks like a real long shot."

Sen. Hillary Clinton gets a 63 - 29 percent approval rating from New York State voters, and dominates two potential Republican challengers in next year's reelection race, 63 - 29 percent over Pirro and 64 - 26 percent over Edward Cox.

Looking at Clinton's presidential prospects, 56 percent of New York State voters say she will run for President in 2008, and 24 percent say they "definitely" will vote for her, with 27 percent who say they "probably" will vote for her.

But voters say 60 - 30 percent that Clinton should pledge to serve the full six-year term if she runs for reelection to the Senate in 2006, blocking a 2008 presidential bid.

"Clinton-for-President isn't a cakewalk in New York. Two-to-one, voters think she should promise to serve the whole six years if she runs for re-election in 2006. And she'd get only a bare majority for President in her new home state," Carroll said.

Sen. Charles Schumer has a 63 - 21 percent approval rating.

Gov. George Pataki gets a 49 - 38 percent approval rating, his best in a year and up from a negative 36 - 47 percent approval rating in a May 4 Quinnipiac University poll.

Voters say 55 - 32 percent that his three terms as Governor have been a success.

But only 5 percent of New York State voters say they would "definitely" vote for Pataki for President, with 23 percent who say they "probably" would vote for Pataki.

If Pataki is the Republican vice presidential candidate in 2008, 17 percent of New Yorkers say they are more likely to vote for the GOP ticket, with 23 percent who are less likely and 55 percent who say it won't make a difference.

"New Yorkers sort of like their lame duck Governor. Pataki's job approval is up and, looking over his three terms, most voters think he's been a success. He even gets a split among Democrats," Carroll said. "But Pataki-for-President is a non-starter in his deep-blue home state."

From July 27 - August 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,498 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 49% 65% 41% 47% 49% 49% Disapprove 38 25 49 36 40 36 DK/NA 13 10 11 17 11 15

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 43% 46% 45% 47% 60% Disapprove 45 41 42 40 27 DK/NA 12 13 13 13 13

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Aug 3   May 4   Feb 10  Dec 8   Oct 2   Feb 10
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2001    2005


Approve 49 36 34 44 81 34 Disapprove 38 47 49 41 12 49 DK/NA 13 17 17 15 7 17



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 63% 38% 83% 62% 59% 67% Disapprove 29 55 9 30 34 24 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 7 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 66% 59% 60% 70% 58% Disapprove 25 34 32 21 35 DK/NA 9 7 7 9 7

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Aug 3   May 5   Feb 9   Dec 8   Feb 9   Feb 14
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2005    2001


Approve 63 63 65 63 65 38 Disapprove 29 28 27 26 27 30 DK/NA 8 10 8 11 8 33



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 63% 50% 76% 62% 64% 62% Disapprove 21 37 10 21 26 17 DK/NA 16 13 13 17 10 21

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 65% 61% 62% 67% 57% Disapprove 13 21 20 19 29 DK/NA 22 17 18 14 14

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (* = Also hit 69% on 10/02/01)

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Aug 3   May 5   Feb 9   Dec 8   Dec 8   Apr 15
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2004 *  1999


Approve 63 61 66 69 69 51 Disapprove 21 19 19 16 16 22 DK/NA 16 20 15 15 15 28



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 35% 72% 13% 28% 37% 33% Disapprove 61 23 84 66 59 62 DK/NA 4 5 2 5 4 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 35% 42% 41% 24% 42% Disapprove 60 54 55 71 55 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 3

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* = Also hit 82% on 10/2/2001)

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Aug 3   May 5   Feb 10  Dec 8   Nov 14  May 5
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2001 *  2005


Approve 35 33 38 39 82 33 Disapprove 61 61 58 56 15 61 DK/NA 4 6 5 5 3 6



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 60% 57% 63% 63% 69% 53% Disapprove 15 17 14 14 15 16 DK/NA 24 27 23 23 16 31

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 63% 64% 64% 59% 55% Disapprove 12 12 12 18 17 DK/NA 25 24 24 23 28

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Aug 3   May 4   Feb 10  Dec 8   Jun 16  Apr 6
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2004    2000


Approve 60 57 61 61 64 51 Disapprove 15 17 13 15 14 14 DK/NA 24 26 26 24 23 35



6. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Spitzer 51% 26% 71% 50% 53% 50% Bloomberg 34 59 19 33 36 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 12 11 9 14 8 15

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 67% 53% 56% 50% 43% Bloomberg 14 30 27 38 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 15 15 15 9 11



7. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Spitzer 42% 11% 66% 39% 44% 39% Giuliani 49 80 26 51 49 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 6 10

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 41% 36% 37% 53% 31% Giuliani 43 53 51 39 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - DK/NA 13 10 11 7 7



8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and Thomas Golisano the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Spitzer 58% 27% 82% 57% 60% 56% Golisano 22 49 6 19 23 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 18 22 11 19 14 20

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 54% 48% 49% 70% 55% Golisano 30 31 31 12 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 14 19 18 15 21



9. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and William Weld the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Spitzer 60% 29% 83% 64% 63% 58% Weld 16 39 4 11 17 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 21 28 12 23 18 24

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 66% 55% 58% 68% 53% Weld 10 19 17 13 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 21 23 22 17 26



10. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Spitzer 59% 32% 81% 59% 62% 56% Pirro 21 45 7 20 21 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 17 20 12 17 13 20

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Spitzer 65% 54% 57% 66% 51% Pirro 11 24 21 18 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 19 19 19 13 18



11. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 63% 25% 92% 61% 59% 66% Pirro 29 65 3 29 32 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 8 4 8 6 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 66% 53% 56% 77% 51% Pirro 23 38 35 16 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 - DK/NA 7 7 7 5 8



12. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Edward Cox the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 64% 26% 91% 66% 61% 67% Cox 26 62 4 21 30 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 11 5 10 8 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 68% 55% 58% 77% 55% Cox 24 35 32 15 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 5 9 8 8 9



13. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Hillary Rodham Clinton deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that she does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes/Deserves 66% 31% 89% 67% 62% 70% No/Does not 28 61 6 28 34 24 DK/NA 6 8 5 5 4 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes/Deserves 70% 59% 62% 76% 58% No/Does not 25 36 33 18 37 DK/NA 5 5 5 6 5



14. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for President in 2008, how likely is it that you would vote for her? Do you think you would definitely vote for her, probably vote for her, probably not vote for her, or definitely not vote for her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Definitely 24% 6% 44% 15% 19% 29% Probably 27 10 37 27 24 29 Probably not 13 16 8 20 16 12 Definitely not 28 62 5 26 34 23 DK/NA 8 6 6 12 7 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Definitely 25% 17% 19% 37% 16% Probably 30 25 27 27 26 Probably not 14 15 15 12 14 Definitely not 23 36 33 16 37 DK/NA 7 7 7 9 7



15. Regardless of how you would vote, do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton will or will not run for President in 2008?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Will 56% 67% 49% 58% 55% 57% Will not 32 23 38 34 33 31 DK/NA 12 10 14 9 12 12

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Will 55% 57% 57% 53% 61% Will not 30 32 31 34 28 DK/NA 16 11 12 12 10



16. If Hillary Rodham Clinton runs for reelection to the Senate in 2006, do you think she should pledge to serve the full 6 year term or not?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 60% 62% 59% 62% 57% 62% No 30 27 34 28 33 28 DK/NA 10 11 7 10 10 10

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes 60% 59% 60% 60% 62% No 29 31 31 32 26 DK/NA 10 9 10 8 13



17. Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate or conservative?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Liberal 46% 67% 33% 44% 53% 40% Moderate 37 19 47 41 35 39 Conservative 10 7 13 8 7 11 DK/NA 8 6 7 7 5 10

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Liberal 36% 48% 45% 44% 49% Moderate 33 35 35 36 45 Conservative 17 7 9 15 1 DK/NA 14 10 11 4 6

TREND: Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                        Aug 3   May 5   Feb 9   Sep 27  Jun 7   Apr 22  Apr 15
                        2005    2005    2005    2000    2000    1999    1999


Liberal 46 52 52 62 55 51 52 Moderate 37 29 31 23 25 29 27 Conservative 10 10 8 8 9 10 11 DK/NA 8 8 9 7 11 10 10



18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% Smwht satisfied 44 46 44 41 42 45 Smwht dissatisfied 31 30 30 36 32 31 Very dissatisfied 20 19 21 19 20 20 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Very satisfied 3% 2% 2% 5% 5% Smwht satisfied 33 39 37 48 49 Smwht dissatisfied 33 33 33 29 31 Very dissatisfied 28 26 26 16 14 DK/NA 3 1 1 1 2



19. Do you think George Pataki's 3 terms as Governor have been mainly a success or mainly a failure?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Success 55% 70% 43% 54% 54% 55% Failure 32 20 45 29 35 30 DK/NA 13 10 13 17 11 15

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Success 40% 56% 52% 51% 64% Failure 41 33 35 36 20 DK/NA 19 11 12 12 16



20. If George Pataki were to run for President in 2008, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Do you think you would definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Definitely 5% 10% 2% 3% 5% 5% Probably 23 34 15 21 21 24 Probably not 28 29 24 32 28 28 Definitely not 37 16 53 35 39 34 DK/NA 8 11 6 9 8 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Definitely 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% Probably 19 23 22 22 26 Probably not 30 30 30 26 27 Definitely not 37 34 35 43 30 DK/NA 11 9 10 5 11



21. If George Pataki is the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate in 2008, would that make you more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


More likely 17% 33% 7% 16% 17% 16% Less likely 23 11 33 23 22 24 Wouldn't make diff 55 51 55 57 57 54 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 4 5

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

More likely 6% 15% 13% 17% 22% Less likely 25 19 20 30 16 Wouldn't make diff 63 61 61 48 57 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 5