May 16, 2007 - Obama, Giuliani Neck And Neck In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Clinton Still Tops Democratic Primary Pack

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Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets 43 percent to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 42 percent in the 2008 presidential race in Ohio, and leads other Democrats by wider margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Giuliani tops New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 47 - 43 percent, and leads former Vice President Al Gore 48 - 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In other general election matchups:
  • Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent;
  • Sen. Obama bests McCain 44 - 41 percent;
  • McCain edges Gore 45 - 42 percent.
While Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 23 percent, followed by McCain at 17 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has moved up to 15 percent, a 7-point jump since April 26. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 11 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 6 percent.

Clinton leads among Democrats with 38 percent, followed by Obama at 19 percent, 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards at 11 percent and Gore at 10 percent.

"Ohio is the nation's premier swing state and Sen. Obama does best here of the Democrats, yet he needs to do something about Sen. Clinton's lead in the primary in order to have a chance to strut his stuff next November," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Former Senator and Law & Order actor Fred Thompson is making the Republican race interesting as he appears to be eating into Sen. McCain's strength."

"The 23 percent of the vote Giuliani is getting in a GOP primary remains the same as the April 26 Quinnipiac University poll, but it is sharply lower than March 7 when he was getting 35 percent of the Ohio vote," Brown added.

"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has been the first to buy national television ads, finally breaks into double digits among Ohio Republicans."

How Ohio voters feel about the various candidates could be a harbinger of good things for Obama and Thompson. The Illinois Senator gets a 42 - 22 percent favorability rating, with 34 percent who do not know enough about him to form an opinion. Thompson gets a 25 - 8 percent favorability, including 46 - 4 percent among Republicans, but 65 percent of all voters still don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Favorability ratings for other candidates are:
  • 54 - 26 percent favorable for Giuliani;
  • A split 46 - 45 percent favorable for Clinton;
  • 45 - 28 percent favorable for McCain;
  • 46 - 43 percent favorable for Gore;
  • 44 - 29 percent favorable for Edwards;
  • 67 percent don't know enough about Romney to form an opinion. Bush Approval
Ohio voters disapprove 61 - 35 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.

From May 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 939 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 334 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points, and 353 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Tot     Men     Wom
 
Biden                    1%      2%      1%
Clark                    -       -       - 
Clinton                 38      32      42 
Dodd                     -       -       - 
Edwards                 11      13       9 
Gore                    10       9      11 
Gravel                   -       -       - 
Kucinich                 2       4       1 
Obama                   19      21      18 
Richardson               2       4       -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       1       - 
DK/NA                   14      12      15 
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................
                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Biden 1 1 1 2 2 Clark - - - 1 1 Clinton 38 37 32 32 38 Dodd - - - - - Edwards 11 17 11 13 11 Gore 10 11 14 11 6 Gravel - - - na na Kucinich 2 3 3 2 2 Obama 19 14 22 19 13 Richardson 2 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 14 15 16 17



2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS..........
                                                WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Brownback                -       1%      -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1       1
Gingrich                 6       6       6       6
Giuliani                23      20      26      23
Hagel                    -       -       -       1
Huckabee                 2       4       -       5
Hunter                   -       -       -       -
McCain                  17      21      13      19
Pataki                   -       -       -       -
Paul                     -       -       1       1
Romney                  11      11      10       7
Tancredo                 -       -       -       1
Thompson, F.            15      18      11       9
Thompson, T.             2       4       1       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       4       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       -       -
DK/NA                   18      12      26      21


TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................
                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Brownback - 2 - - 1 Gilmore - - 1 1 - Gingrich 6 9 8 13 11 Giuliani 23 23 31 35 30 Hagel - - 1 1 1 Huckabee 2 - 1 - 1 Hunter - - - 1 - McCain 17 21 20 18 22 Pataki - - - - 1 Paul - - - - - Romney 11 6 6 3 4 Tancredo - 1 1 1 1 Thompson, F. 15 8 6 na na Thompson, T. 2 - 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 3 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 18 23 23 19 19



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 43%      5%     82%     39%     35%     50%     29%
Giuliani                47      89      13      43      57      39      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       4       2       3       5
DK/NA                    6       3       2      13       5       7       4


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 43 41 46 44 46 Giuliani 47 46 43 43 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 9 7 9 8



4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   42%     11%     73%     41%     39%     45%     25%
Giuliani                43      79      14      40      50      37      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       2       -       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       4       3       4       3       4
DK/NA                   10       7       8      14       7      13      11


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7
                        2007    2007    2007    2007


Obama 42 37 42 36 Giuliani 43 45 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 4 4 DK/NA 10 13 11 12



5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    40%      4%     75%     39%     35%     44%     23%
Giuliani                48      89      13      43      55      41      65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       5       3       3       4       5
DK/NA                    7       4       5      13       6       9       6


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26
                        2007    2007


Gore 40 39 Giuliani 48 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 7 10



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 44%      5%     83%     43%     36%     51%     27%
McCain                  45      88      11      39      54      36      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       3       2       2       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       1       3       2       2       4
DK/NA                    6       4       2      12       5       8       4


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 44 42 46 45 46 McCain 45 44 42 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 6 10 8 9 8



7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   44%     10%     74%     43%     41%     46%     27%
McCain                  41      79      15      34      46      36      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       -       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       3       2       3       3
DK/NA                   11       9       8      18       9      13      11


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Obama 44 36 45 42 38 McCain 41 42 37 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 2 3 DK/NA 11 16 13 15 18



8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    42%      6%     78%     40%     38%     45%     22%
McCain                  45      85      11      42      51      39      64
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       -       3       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       5       3       2       4       6
DK/NA                    8       6       5      12       7       9       6


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26
                        2007    2007


Gore 42 39 McCain 45 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 8 10



9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 47%      7%     84%     46%     39%     54%     31%
Thompson                39      82       9      30      47      32      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       5       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       5       4       3       4
DK/NA                    8       6       4      15       7       9       8


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26
                        2007    2007


Clinton 47 45 Thompson 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 8 14



10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   45%     13%     75%     45%     40%     50%     28%
Thompson                34      70      10      25      41      27      47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       1       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       4       6       4       4       4
DK/NA                   15      13      10      21      14      17      18


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26
                        2007    2007


Obama 45 44 Thompson 34 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 15 20



11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    44%      7%     84%     40%     37%     51%     24%
Thompson                39      79       6      34      47      31      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       -       6       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       5       5       4       5       5
DK/NA                   10      11       5      15      10      11      13


TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 16  Apr 26
                        2007    2007


Gore 44 44 Thompson 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 10 15



TREND: Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her?

Score = Favorable (Haven't Heard Enough)

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton, Hillary 46( 7) 47( 8) 48( 9) 49( 9) 49(10) Edwards, John 44(25) 47(27) 48(27) 47(26) 46(28) Giuliani, Rudy 54(17) 54(22) 52(25) 53(23) 53(27) Gore, Al 46( 9) 44(12) na na 41(8) McCain, John 45(25) 47(28) 46(29) 44(30) 47(29) Obama, Barack 42(34) 41(36) 43(39) 40(41) 35(52) Romney, Mitt 17(67) 15(73) 17(70) 14(70) 9(80) Thompson, Fred 25(65) 21(69) na na na



12. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               46%     11%     81%     42%     40%     51%     30%
Unfavorable             45      83      13      44      53      38      61
Hvn't hrd enough         7       6       5      11       6       9       8
REFUSED                  2       -       1       4       2       2       1


TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Favorable 46 47 48 49 49 Unfavorable 45 43 41 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 9 9 10 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3



13. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               44%     23%     63%     44%     43%     44%     33%
Unfavorable             29      55      12      24      36      23      36
Hvn't hrd enough        25      21      24      28      20      30      29
REFUSED                  2       2       1       4       1       3       2


TREND: Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Favorable 44 47 48 47 46 Unfavorable 29 24 24 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 25 27 27 26 28 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2



14. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               54%     74%     35%     53%     57%     51%     60%
Unfavorable             26      11      40      27      27      25      18
Hvn't hrd enough        17      13      21      17      13      21      20
REFUSED                  3       2       4       3       2       4       2


TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Favorable 54 54 52 53 53 Unfavorable 26 22 22 22 19 Hvn't hrd enough 17 22 25 23 27 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 1



15. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               46%     14%     81%     42%     45%     47%     29%
Unfavorable             43      78      10      44      51      36      64
Hvn't hrd enough         9       6       9      10       3      14       5
REFUSED                  2       1       1       4       2       2       1


TREND: Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007


Favorable 46 44 41 Unfavorable 43 41 50 Hvn't hrd enough 9 12 8 REFUSED 2 3 2



16. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               45%     67%     26%     47%     53%     38%     50%
Unfavorable             28      13      42      23      29      26      19
Hvn't hrd enough        25      19      31      26      16      34      29
REFUSED                  2       2       1       5       2       2       2


TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30  
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Favorable 45 47 46 44 47 Unfavorable 28 22 23 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 25 28 29 30 29 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2



17. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               42%     25%     58%     40%     45%     40%     31%
Unfavorable             22      40      12      19      26      19      29
Hvn't hrd enough        34      34      29      40      28      39      38
REFUSED                  1       1       1       2       1       2       2


TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Favorable 42 41 43 40 35 Unfavorable 22 21 17 17 12 Hvn't hrd enough 34 36 39 41 52 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1



18. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               17%     35%      5%     12%     23%     12%     19%
Unfavorable             15      10      22      13      19      12      11
Hvn't hrd enough        67      54      72      73      57      75      70
REFUSED                  1       -       1       1       1       1       -


TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 16  Apr 26  Mar 22  Mar 7   Jan 30  
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Favorable 17 15 17 14 9 Unfavorable 15 11 11 15 10 Hvn't hrd enough 67 73 70 70 80 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1



19. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               25%     46%     10%     21%     33%     18%     31%
Unfavorable              8       4      13       8      11       7       5
Hvn't hrd enough        65      50      76      70      55      75      64
REFUSED                  1       -       1       2       2       1       0


TREND: Is your opinion of Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?

                        May 16  Apr 26
                        2007    2007


Favorable 25 21 Unfavorable 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 65 69 REFUSED 1 1



24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Approve                 35%     76%      6%     26%     39%     32%     51%
Disapprove              61      19      92      69      58      63      43
DK/NA                    4       5       2       6       3       5       5


TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        May 16  Mar 22  Jan 30  Dec 13  May 16  Mar 22
                        2007    2007    2007    2006    2007    2007


Approve 35 30 34 34 35 30 Disapprove 61 66 62 62 61 66 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 4 4