February 5, 2009 - Ohio Gov. Strickland On Top In Early Look At 2010 Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Most Of His Educational Program

Word format

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland has a 63 - 25 percent job approval rating and swamps the two leading potential Republican candidates against him in 2010, John Kasich and Mike DeWine by 30 percent and 22 percent respectively, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ohio voters support the overall education plan Gov. Strickland laid out in his State of the State address, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Voters support 51 - 42 percent increasing the school year from 180 days to 200 days. But they oppose 56 - 36 percent lengthening the school day.

By a 66 - 30 percent margin, voters want to keep the Ohio Graduation Test required for all schools in the state. Graduation requirements are "too strict," 9 percent say, while 38 percent say "not strict enough" and 45 percent say requirements are "about right."

And by a 69 - 22 percent margin, Ohioans think that despite the Governor's pledge not to raise taxes statewide, nor to force localities to do so, that they will wind up paying more taxes.

"Gov. Ted Strickland has a selling job to do on the graduation test, because voters indicate they like the current graduation requirements or want a tougher standard," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And despite the Governor's promises, they don't believe that all these changes aren't going to hit them in the pocketbook."

Among the Republicans vying for the nomination to oppose Strickland in 2010, former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, who is by far better known than Kasich, holds a 37 - 22 percent lead over the former congressman and Fox TV news host Kasich. A third potential candidate, State Sen. Kevin Coughlin gets only 3 percent in a GOP primary and is virtually unknown statewide.

In trial matchups, Strickland beats Kasich 56 - 26 percent and DeWine 54 - 32 percent.

By a 60 - 19 percent margin, Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Strickland, while 17 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

DeWine gets a 45 - 23 percent favorability, with 30 percent who haven't heard enough, while Kasich gets a 21 - 6 percent favorability, with 71 percent who haven't heard enough.

"Anything is possible in politics, but Gov. Strickland is in an extremely strong position for re-election 21 months before the 2010 election," said Brown. "He leads among independents by a three-to-one margin against Kasich and two-to-one against DeWine."

"In politics, nothing is as valuable to a politician as a good first impression and two years into his term, it's pretty clear than Ted Strickland has made a very good first impression on the people of Ohio. Of course we have 21 months until Election Day, but only about one in six voters or fewer say they are undecided. Strickland could lose them all and still win comfortably."

The clout that Strickland carries with the people of Ohio is best seen through the prism of his education initiatives. Only 43 percent of voters say they have heard "a lot" or "some" about the Governor's new plan for educational change, but 42 percent say they think it would improve education in the state, 22 percent say it would not, and 36 percent do not have an opinion.

Ohio voters support 62 - 34 percent Strickland's proposal to make all-day kindergarten mandatory statewide. Voters with children in public school support the proposal 75 - 24 percent.

Voters also support 64 - 29 percent requiring teachers to work nine years before they are eligible for tenure, instead of the current three-year requirement. Even Democrats, who tend to be pro-teacher, support the nine-year tenure requirement 63 - 30 percent.

From January 29 - February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,127 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 374 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/-5.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

1. (If registered Republican) As you may know there will be an election for Governor in Ohio in 2010. Thinking about the Republican primary for Governor, if the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were John Kasich, Mike DeWine and Kevin Coughlin, for whom would you vote?
                     Rep
 
Kasich               22%
DeWine               37
Coughlin              3
DK/NA                37
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           56%    17%    84%    58%    55%    58%    40%
Kasich               26     66      6     18     28     24     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      2      1      1      2
DK/NA                16     15      9     22     15     17     15
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Strickland           62%    56%    52%    71%    52%    52%
Kasich               32     23     24     19     31     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      3      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      2      2      -
DK/NA                 5     20     21      5     15     22
 
 
5. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Mike DeWine the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           54%    16%    82%    55%    55%    54%    41%
DeWine               32     76      9     26     32     33     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      2      1      1      2
DK/NA                11      7      8     15     10     12      7
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Strickland           63%    54%    49%    74%    54%    41%
DeWine               30     32     36     17     32     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      4      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                 5     13     13      3     11     15
 
 
11. Is your opinion of -- Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            60%    31%    78%    63%    61%    59%    50%
Unfavorable          19     45      6     15     19     20     26
Hvn't hrd enough     17     20     15     18     17     18     19
REFUSED               3      4      -      4      2      3      5
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Favorable            68%    54%    66%    72%    57%    62%
Unfavorable          15     22     20     16     22     17
Hvn't hrd enough     16     20     11      6     18     20
REFUSED               2      4      3      6      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Feb 5   Dec 10
                     2009    2008
 
Favorable            60      47
Unfavorable          19      25
Hvn't hrd enough     17      26
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of -- Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            45%    58%    37%    44%    45%    45%    52%
Unfavorable          23     13     29     26     27     20     16
Hvn't hrd enough     30     27     32     28     26     34     30
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      3      1      2
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Favorable            47%    45%    44%    39%    37%    52%
Unfavorable          28     21     17     23     29     22
Hvn't hrd enough     23     32     34     36     32     26
REFUSED               1      2      5      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Feb 5   Dec 10
                     2009    2008
 
Favorable            45      43
Unfavorable          23      24
Hvn't hrd enough     30      32
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of -- John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            21%    37%    12%    20%    26%    17%    27%
Unfavorable           6      1      8     10      9      4      3
Hvn't hrd enough     71     61     79     69     65     78     69
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Favorable            44%    17%    14%    23%    17%    13%
Unfavorable          16      4      2      2      6      7
Hvn't hrd enough     38     79     84     74     76     80
REFUSED               3      1      -      1      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Feb 5   Dec 10
                     2009    2008
 
Favorable            21      18
Unfavorable           6       8
Hvn't hrd enough     71      73
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of -- Kevin Coughlin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable             5%     6%     5%     4%     5%     4%     6%
Unfavorable           3      2      3      3      3      3      4
Hvn't hrd enough     91     90     91     92     90     93     90
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      2      -      1
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Favorable             4%     7%     5%     3%     4%     2%
Unfavorable           2      3      4      2      4      2
Hvn't hrd enough     93     89     90     95     90     96
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      2      1
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              63%    33%    83%    65%    63%    62%    50%
Disapprove           25     49     12     22     25     26     36
DK/NA                12     18      5     14     11     13     13
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              70%    58%    64%    80%    57%    63%
Disapprove           25     26     30     16     27     23
DK/NA                 5     16      6      4     16     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Feb 5   Dec 10  Aug 14  Jun 4   Feb 25  Feb 5  Feb 1
                     2009    2008    2008    2008    2008    2009   2007
 
Approve              63      54      60      55      56      63     45
Disapprove           25      25      25      23      19      25     12
DK/NA                12      22      15      23      25      12     43
 
 
27. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        2%     1%     4%     2%     2%     3%     3%
Smwht satisfied      31     24     39     28     31     31     28
Smwht dissatisfied   37     43     34     35     39     36     35
Very dissatisfied    28     31     21     33     28     29     33
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      2      1
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Very satisfied        2%     2%     1%    11%     2%     2%
Smwht satisfied      33     27     31     45     35     30
Smwht dissatisfied   38     39     36     25     40     33
Very dissatisfied    25     31     32     19     24     34
DK/NA                 2      2      -      1      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also low of 33% on 12/11/08)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT....
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 5   Dec 11  Aug 14  Jun 4   Sep 5   Mar 21  Feb 5
                     2009    2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2009
 
Very satisfied        2       3       3       4       3       5       2
Smwht satisfied      31      30      36      36      46      49      31
Smwht dissatisfied   37      35      37      33      31      28      37
Very dissatisfied    28      31      23      26      18      16      28
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
28. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  46%    27%    62%    44%    48%    44%    40%
No                   27     42     18     25     27     27     31
DK/NA                27     31     20     31     25     29     29
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Yes                  60%    42%    39%    61%    43%    40%
No                   18     26     37     21     32     32
DK/NA                22     31     24     17     25     28
 
TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
                     Feb 5   Dec 11  Aug 14  Jun 4
                     2009    2008    2008    2008
 
Yes                  46      44      47      46
No                   27      26      31      30
DK/NA                27      30      22      24
 
 
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              44%    22%    63%    41%    46%    43%    36%
Disapprove           37     58     22     37     37     37     46
DK/NA                19     20     15     22     17     20     18
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              54%    41%    42%    59%    37%    43%
Disapprove           33     36     40     28     45     38
DK/NA                13     23     17     14     18     19
 
 
41. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              48%    29%    66%    42%    53%    44%    39%
Disapprove           30     48     19     31     30     31     37
DK/NA                21     23     15     26     17     25     24
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              63%    45%    45%    53%    41%    44%
Disapprove           23     33     25     24     39     32
DK/NA                14     22     30     23     20     25
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget?
                     Feb 5   Dec 11
                     2009    2008
 
Approve              48      41
Disapprove           30      31
DK/NA                21      29
 
 
42. To balance the state budget next year, if you had to choose, which would you prefer - raising taxes to keep state services at their current level or cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Raising taxes        30%    13%    45%    27%    31%    29%    20%
Cutting services     59     77     43     62     61     56     67
DK/NA                12     10     12     11      7     15     13
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Raising taxes        34%    30%    23%    30%    30%    28%
Cutting services     59     59     57     52     59     58
DK/NA                 7     11     20     17     10     13
 
TREND: To balance the state budget next year, if you had to choose, which would you prefer - raising taxes to keep state services at their current level or cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level?
                     Feb 5   Dec 11
                     2009    2008
 
Raising taxes        30      24
Cutting services     59      62
DK/NA                12      13
 
 
43. Governor Strickland has ruled out raising state taxes to alleviate Ohio's budget situation. Do you agree with him that taxes should not be raised, or do you think that some tax increase should be considered?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
No tax increase      57%    69%    45%    64%    57%    57%    67%
Consider increases   39     30     52     32     40     39     31
DK/NA                 3      2      3      4      3      4      1
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
No tax increase      56%    61%    57%    61%    48%    55%
Consider increases   42     36     36     37     48     38
DK/NA                 2      2      7      2      4      6
 
TREND: Governor Strickland has ruled out raising state taxes to alleviate Ohio's budget situation. Do you agree with him that taxes should not be raised, or do you think that some tax increase should be considered?
                     Feb 5   Dec 11
                     2009    2008
 
No tax increases     57      64
Consider increases   39      33
DK/NA                 3       3
 
 
44. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling education?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              48%    27%    63%    49%    51%    47%    41%
Disapprove           27     40     18     26     28     26     30
DK/NA                24     33     19     24     21     27     29
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Approve              54%    45%    54%    53%    46%    48%    56%
Disapprove           26     28     23     23     31     27     29
DK/NA                20     27     23     24     23     25     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling education? (*Governor Strickland)
                     Feb 5   Dec 11  May 15
                     2009    2008    2005*
 
Approve              48      41      41
Disapprove           27      34      30
DK/NA                24      26      29
 
 
45. Governor Strickland has offered a new education plan for Ohio that would affect how schools are funded, how students are taught and how teachers are trained. How much have you heard or read about Strickland's new education plan? A lot, some, not much, or nothing at all?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
A lot                11%     8%    12%    11%    10%    12%    10%
Some                 32     30     34     31     33     32     25
Not much             31     30     30     33     33     29     32
Nothing              25     31     22     25     24     27     32
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      -      1      1
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
A lot                17%    10%    10%     7%     7%    12%    13%
Some                 37     33     27     40     27     31     30
Not much             26     29     42     18     33     38     30
Nothing              21     28     20     34     30     19     27
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      2      -      -
 
 
46. Do you think Governor Strickland's plan will improve education in Ohio or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  42%    26%    52%    44%    43%    40%    36%
No                   22     33     13     23     22     22     26
DK/NA                36     41     35     33     34     37     38
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Yes                  53%    37%    38%    46%    43%    40%    50%
No                   17     25     20     29     20     23     18
DK/NA                30     38     42     25     37     37     32
 
 
47. Governor Strickland has said that he will raise the amount of money that the state gives local school districts, but he will not raise state taxes to pay for it. Local districts would be allowed to raise taxes, but they would not have to. If the Governor's plan goes into effect, Do you think you will pay more taxes to support education than you are paying now or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Will             69%    74%    69%    64%    72%    66%    69%
No/Will not          22     13     24     28     20     24     21
DK/NA                 9     12      7      9      8     10     10
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Yes/Will             69%    66%    74%    70%    72%    71%    71%
No/Will not          24     25     17     20     18     21     23
DK/NA                 7      9      9     10     10      8      6
 
 
48. Would you be willing to pay more in taxes to increase the amount of money that goes to schools in Ohio or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  51%    34%    66%    48%    52%    50%    41%
No                   45     59     31     49     44     45     53
DK/NA                 5      7      3      2      4      5      6
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Yes                  54%    47%    52%    56%    49%    56%    71%
No                   44     47     46     37     48     39     25
DK/NA                 2      6      2      6      3      5      4
 
 
49. Governor Strickland wants to increase the school year in Ohio from its current 180 days to 200 days. The increase would take effect over a 10-year period. Do you support or oppose increasing the school year to 200 days?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              51%    42%    56%    55%    52%    50%    45%
Oppose               42     48     38     38     42     42     46
DK/NA                 7     11      6      7      7      8      9
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Support              60%    46%    43%    51%    45%    62%    51%
Oppose               35     45     47     46     46     33     45
DK/NA                 5      9     10      4      9      5      5
 
 
50. Governor Strickland wants to increase the length of the school day in Ohio. Do you support or oppose increasing the length of the school day?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              36%    28%    41%    37%    39%    33%    28%
Oppose               56     61     51     57     53     58     64
DK/NA                 8     11      7      6      8      8      8
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Support              43%    30%    36%    33%    38%    41%    43%
Oppose               50     58     59     61     57     53     51
DK/NA                 7     12      5      6      5      6      6
 
 
51. Governor Strickland wants to make all-day kindergarten mandatory statewide. Do you support or oppose all-day kindergarten?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              62%    50%    72%    64%    59%    65%    55%
Oppose               34     43     24     34     37     30     40
DK/NA                 4      7      3      2      4      5      4
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Support              65%    63%    73%    70%    56%    53%    75%
Oppose               32     32     24     27     41     41     24
DK/NA                 3      5      3      3      3      6      1
 
 
52. In general, do you think the requirements for graduation from Ohio's public high schools are too strict, not strict enough, or about right?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Too strict            9%     8%    12%     6%     8%    10%     9%
Not strict enough    38     46     31     39     41     35     36
About right          45     39     51     42     43     47     47
DK/NA                 8      8      6     12      8      9      9
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Too strict           14%     9%     4%     8%     6%     9%    11%
Not strict enough    33     39     26     31     47     43     28
About right          43     44     61     50     42     41     57
DK/NA                11      8      8     12      5      7      4
 
 
53. Currently, students must pass the same statewide exam, the Ohio Graduation Test, to graduate from high school. Do you think that Ohio should require all students to pass the same statewide test to graduate or don't you think so?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  66%    66%    66%    64%    69%    63%    62%
No                   30     29     30     31     28     31     34
DK/NA                 5      5      4      5      3      6      5
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Yes                  54%    64%    72%    62%    77%    72%    64%
No                   39     31     26     32     19     25     33
DK/NA                 8      5      2      5      4      3      3
 
 
54. Generally Ohio public school teachers are eligible for tenure after three years of teaching. Governor Strickland wants to require nine years of teaching to be eligible for tenure. Do you support or oppose requiring nine years of teaching for Ohio public school teachers to be eligible for tenure?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              64%    70%    63%    60%    67%    61%    67%
Oppose               29     21     30     34     29     29     25
DK/NA                 8      9      6      7      4     11      8
 
                                                               HvChldIn
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt PubSch
 
Support              63%    65%    65%    66%    62%    61%    71%
Oppose               30     28     28     23     33     30     26
DK/NA                 7      8      7     11      5      9      3