July 7, 2009 - Obama's Approval Drops In Ohio - Critical Swing State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 2010 Senate Race Tips Slightly To Democrats

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President Barack Obama gets a lackluster 49 - 44 percent approval rating in Ohio, considered by many to be the most important swing state in a presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is President Obama's lowest approval rating in any national or statewide Quinnipiac University poll since he was inaugurated and is down from 62 - 31 percent in a May 6 survey.

By a small 48 - 46 percent margin, voters disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This is down from a 57 - 36 percent approval May 6. A total of 66 percent of Ohio voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 33 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied," numbers that haven't changed since Obama was elected.

In the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring George Voinovich in 2010, Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner remain neck-and-neck for the Democratic nomination and both would defeat any of the GOP candidates if the election were today.

"The economy in Ohio is as bad as anywhere in America. These numbers indicate that for the first time voters have decided that President Barack Obama bears some responsibility for their problems," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Until now voters have given President Obama high ratings on the economy, blaming former President George W. Bush for their problems. They might be taking out their frustration on President Obama, possibly deciding that the change he promised has not come as quickly as they expected."

"Ohio historically has been the prototypical swing state. One of the reasons Barack Obama won the presidency by such a wide margin is that he carried Ohio with 52 percent of the vote and captured the lion's share of independent votes," Brown added.

"Now, by a 48 - 46 percent margin, Ohio independent voters give the President a failing grade on the economy. These numbers indicate that he may be losing, at least for now, some of those who voted for him in November and should be an indication to the White House that his honeymoon with the voters may be ending."

In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher holds a 24 - 21 percent lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in the race for the Democratic nomination, with 51 percent undecided.

Former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman holds a 33 - 10 percent lead over car dealer Tom Ganley on the Republican side, with 55 percent undecided.

In general election trial heats, Brunner would defeat Ganley 35 - 31 percent and get 35 percent to Portman's 34 percent. Fisher leads Ganley 36 - 30 percent and Portman 37 - 33 percent.

From June 26 - July 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,259 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 483 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points and 445 Republicans with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or (203) 582-5201.

2. (If registered Republican) As you may know, Ohio Senator George Voinovich will not be running for reelection in 2010. Thinking about the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPS..                     
                     Tot    Men    Wom    
 
Portman              33%    39%    25%    
Ganley               10     11      9     
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1     
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      -     
DK/NA                55     46     65  
 
TREND: (If registered Republican) As you may know, Ohio Senator George Voinovich will not be running for reelection in 2010. Thinking about the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2009    2009    2009    2009*
 
Portman              33      29      31      33
Ganley               10       8      na      na
Taylor               na       8      14      11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       1       -
DK/NA                55      54      52      56   
 
 
3. (If registered Democrat) Thinking about the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS..                    
                     Tot    Men    Wom   
 
Fisher               24%    31%    20%   
Brunner              21     26     18    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      4    
DK/NA                51     42     56 
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) Thinking about the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na=not asked)
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.........
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2009    2009    2009    2009*
 
Fisher               24      20      18      18
Brunner              21      16      14      16
Yates                na       4       6      na
Ryan                 na      na      12      14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       1       2       -
DK/NA                51      59      46      53   
 
 
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               37%     5%    76%    28%    33%    40%    28%
Portman              33     72      4     31     41     27     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      3      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      3      2      1      1
DK/NA                26     22     19     35     21     31     27
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Fisher               35%    43%    30%    40%    24%    39%
Portman              32     28     25     26     53     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      5      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      4      -      2      3
DK/NA                29     28     36     34     19     17
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Fisher               37      42      41      42
Portman              33      31      33      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       -       2       1
DK/NA                26      26      24      29
 
 
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               36%     5%    73%    26%    32%    39%    26%
Ganley               30     65      4     29     38     24     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      1      2      1      2
DK/NA                31     28     22     42     26     36     29
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Fisher               36%    41%    31%    36%    21%    37%
Ganley               26     31     23     33     34     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      4      1      2      3
DK/NA                35     26     40     29     41     24
 
 
8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brunner              35%     6%    71%    23%    31%    38%    27%
Ganley               31     67      4     30     38     25     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      2      3      1      1
DK/NA                31     25     23     44     26     35     31
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Brunner              35%    37%    40%    31%    24%    37%
Ganley               32     30     23     35     34     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      5      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      3      2      -      3      3
DK/NA                32     30     31     34     38     24
 
 
9. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brunner              35%     5%    71%    26%    31%    39%    25%
Portman              34     72      5     32     42     27     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      1      2      1      -
DK/NA                29     23     23     39     24     33     28
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Brunner              31%    39%    41%    32%    24%    38%
Portman              36     28     22     29     54     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      4      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      2      -      1      3
DK/NA                31     32     31     38     21     20
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Brunner              35      40      39      38
Portman              34      32      34      28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       -       2       1
DK/NA                29      27      25      31
 
 
14. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            29%    14%    49%    24%    30%    28%    26%
Unfavorable          17     32      6     15     23     11     20
Hvn't hrd enough     53     53     45     59     45     60     53
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4   Dec 10
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            29      37      32      33      23
Unfavorable          17      13      13      10      10
Hvn't hrd enough     53      48      54      55      66
REFUSED               1       1       1       2       1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            27%     9%    46%    24%    27%    27%    22%
Unfavorable          16     31      4     14     21     11     20
Hvn't hrd enough     56     59     50     60     50     61     57
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18   Feb 4   Dec 10
                     2009    2009    2009     2009    2008
 
Favorable            27      31      31       34      26
Unfavorable          16      12      14       10      24
Hvn't hrd enough     56      55      55       55      49
REFUSED               1       1       1        1       1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            21%    35%     8%    23%    27%    16%    24%
Unfavorable           6      1      9      6      5      6      3
Hvn't hrd enough     72     63     82     70     67     77     71
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4   Dec 10
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            21      22      25      21      12
Unfavorable           6       9       7       6       7
Hvn't hrd enough     72      68      67      72      80
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            12%    19%     6%    11%    14%    10%    14%
Unfavorable           4      2      7      3      5      3      3
Hvn't hrd enough     83     78     86     84     79     86     82
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 7   May 6
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            12       6
Unfavorable           4       4
Hvn't hrd enough     83      89
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              52%    60%    53%    46%    49%    55%    53%
Disapprove           29     28     23     35     39     21     30
DK/NA                19     13     24     18     13     24     17
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              45%    60%    45%    48%    44%    56%
Disapprove           29     25     31     36     37     28
DK/NA                26     15     24     16     19     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also 55% on 2/4/2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High   Low
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4   Dec 10  May 6  Dec 13
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009*  2006
 
Approve              52      55      52      55      51      55     41
Disapprove           29      30      32      29      31      30     33
DK/NA                19      15      16      16      17      15     26
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              41%    29%    58%    37%    36%    46%    35%
Disapprove           29     43     12     32     39     19     34
DK/NA                30     28     30     31     24     35     32
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              37%    51%    36%    48%    25%    37%
Disapprove           29     27     22     20     36     32
DK/NA                33     22     41     33     39     30
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4   Dec 10  May 6   Jul 7
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009    2009
 
Approve              41      52      48      51      48      52      41
Disapprove           29      24      25      22      26      24      29
DK/NA                30      24      27      27      26      24      30
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              39%    26%    58%    32%    38%    40%    35%
Disapprove           24     36     10     23     30     18     30
DK/NA                38     38     32     45     32     42     34
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              35%    42%    31%    59%    30%    42%
Disapprove           23     21     27     14     26     30
DK/NA                42     36     42     27     44     28
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
                     Jul 7   May 6
                     2009    2009
 
Approve              39      49
Disapprove           24      17
DK/NA                38      33
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              38%    22%    60%    32%    37%    39%    34%
Disapprove           25     42      7     27     32     18     30
DK/NA                37     36     33     41     30     43     36
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              36%    44%    44%    40%    28%    33%
Disapprove           29     21     13     21     31     31
DK/NA                36     35     43     39     41     35
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4   Dec 10  Aug 14  Jun 4
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2008    2008
 
Approve              38      45      41      44      39      38      38
Disapprove           25      20      19      16      28      12      13
DK/NA                37      34      39      41      33      50      48
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              49%    19%    85%    38%    39%    57%    33%
Disapprove           44     75     11     48     53     36     59
DK/NA                 8      6      3     14      8      7      8
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              50%    52%    55%    46%    36%    47%
Disapprove           43     39     40     44     60     47
DK/NA                 6     10      6     10      4      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 6
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              49      62      57      67
Disapprove           44      31      33      16
DK/NA                 8       7      11      17
 
 
25. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        2%     1%     4%     1%     3%     2%     3%
Smwht satisfied      31     22     46     27     28     35     26
Smwht dissatisfied   36     40     31     36     34     38     36
Very dissatisfied    30     36     19     36     34     25     35
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      -      1
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Very satisfied        3%     3%     -      2%     3%     1%
Smwht satisfied      29     33     32     49     25     28
Smwht dissatisfied   39     35     39     27     39     36
Very dissatisfied    29     29     28     22     33     34
DK/NA                 -      1      1      -      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 17  Feb 5   Dec 11  Mar 21  Mar 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2007    2009
 
Very satisfied        2       4       2       2       3       5       2
Smwht satisfied      31      39      30      31      30      49      30
Smwht dissatisfied   36      32      39      37      35      28      39
Very dissatisfied    30      24      28      28      31      16      28
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              46%    19%    81%    33%    37%    53%    31%
Disapprove           48     79     13     56     58     40     64
DK/NA                 6      2      5     11      4      8      5
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              43%    49%    51%    47%    37%    45%
Disapprove           52     43     47     43     59     51
DK/NA                 5      8      2     10      4      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
                     Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 6
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              46      57      53      58
Disapprove           48      36      36      21
DK/NA                 6       7      11      21