April 28, 2010 - Fisher Opens Big Lead In Ohio Dem Senate Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Voters See Him As More Likely To Win In November

Word format

Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has a commanding 41 - 24 percent lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in the race for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, up from 33 - 26 percent March 30, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely primary voters released today.

Still, 34 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided and 51 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Fisher's margin over Ms. Brunner on a series of other questions about how voters view the two candidates confirms the movement in Fisher's direction since the last survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

The winner of the May 4 Democratic primary will face Rob Portman, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the November election.

"Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has moved into the driver's seat for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. For the last year he had held a small lead over Ms. Brunner, but as the primary approaches he has more than doubled his margin. Fisher clearly has momentum on his side," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Although anything can happen in politics, at this point the race appears to be his to lose.

"The obvious reason for Fisher opening up the race is that in the last weeks he has overwhelmed Ms. Brunner in television and radio advertising. Money may not buy happiness, but it sure can win elections. Of course, a third of likely voters say they remain undecided, but Ms. Brunner would have to win the vast, vast majority of them."

Fisher's greatest advantage over Brunner may be he is considered more electable. Primary voters say 46 - 16 that he is more likely to win the November election, up from 37 - 18 percent in March.

Fisher does better among likely women voters, 43 - 24 percent, than he does among men, 38 - 24 percent.

A fixture in statewide Ohio politics for almost two decades, Fisher is viewed favorably by 41 percent of likely voters, unfavorably by 7 percent. By comparison, Brunner has a 26 - 7 percent favorability, with 65 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

Ms. Brunner is viewed favorably by men 30 - 9 percent, but 24 - 6 percent among women. Fisher's favorability is 39 - 9 percent among men, 42 - 6 percent among women.

Likely voters say Fisher more shares their values than Ms. Brunner 31 - 19 percent, up from 23 - 20 percent in March. By 26 - 19 percent they think he rather than she is more likely to do in office what they said in the campaign, up from 23 - 19 percent in March.

Fisher also is seen as more consistently liberal, 25 - 20 percent, compared to 21 - 15 percent in March.

"Fisher already had better name recognition and his financial advantage allowed him to build on that edge. Name recognition and money are often difficult to overcome and that is the challenge facing Ms. Brunner in the final days of the campaign," said Brown.

From April 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 987 Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner? (If undecided q1) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Fisher or Brunner? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Fisher               41%    38%    43%
Brunner              24     24     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                34     37     32
 
TREND: If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Fisher or Brunner? (This table includes Leaners".)
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Fisher               41      33
Brunner              24      26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                34      40
 
 
1a.(If express choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS....
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1.
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Fisher Brunner
Made up              46%    46%    46%
Might change         51     52     51
DK/NA                 2      2      3
 
TREND: (If express choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS...
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Made up              46      31
Might change         51      65
DK/NA                 2       4
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            41%    39%    42%
Unfavorable           7      9      6
Hvn't hrd enough     48     48     48
REFUSED               3      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Favorable            41      33
Unfavorable           7       8
Hvn't hrd enough     48      56
REFUSED               3       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            26%    30%    24%
Unfavorable           7      9      6
Hvn't hrd enough     65     58     68
REFUSED               3      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Favorable            26      24
Unfavorable           7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     65      67
REFUSED               3       3
 
 
4. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Fisher               26%    29%    25%
Brunner              19     20     18
NO DIFF(VOL)         10     11      9
DK/NA                44     39     48
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Fisher               26      23
Brunner              19      19
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)   10       7
DK/NA                44      51
 
 
5. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Fisher               31%    33%    30%
Brunner              19     20     18
NO DIFF(VOL)          5      7      5
DK/NA                45     40     47
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Fisher               31      23
Brunner              19      20
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)    5       5
DK/NA                45      52
 
 
6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as more consistently liberal, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Fisher               25%    26%    24%
Brunner              20     22     18
NO DIFF(VOL)          3      5      2
DK/NA                52     47     55
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as more consistently liberal, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Fisher               25      21
Brunner              20      15
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)    3       3
DK/NA                52      61
 
 
7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think would be more likely to win the November general election if nominated, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Fisher               46%    48%    46%
Brunner              16     17     15
NO DIFF(VOL)          1      3      -
DK/NA                36     33     39
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more likely to win the November general election if nominated, Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
Fisher               46      37
Brunner              16      18
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)    1       2
DK/NA                36      42
 
 
8. Does the fact that Jennifer Brunner is a woman make it more likely you will vote for her in the primary, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS.
                     Tot    Men    Wom
More likely          11%     7%    13%
Less likely           2      2      2
Doesn't make diff    86     90     83
DK/NA                 2      2      1
 
TREND: Does the fact that Jennifer Brunner is a woman make it more likely you will vote for her in the primary, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY DEM VOTERS
                     Apr 28  Mar 30
                     2010    2010
More likely          11      12
Less likely           2       2
Doesn't make diff    86      84
DK/NA                 2       2