June 29, 2010 - Strickland Holds Off Kasich In Tight Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Arizona-Type Immigration Law

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Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland holds a slight 43 - 38 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kasich, statistically unchanged from 44 - 38 percent in April, and 43 - 38 percent in March, at least partly because Kasich remains unknown to half of Ohio voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ohio voters say 45 - 35 percent they would like Ohio to pass an immigration law similar to the law in Arizona, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In the Governor's race, Strickland leads among Democrats 81 - 4 percent and among independents 40 - 37 percent, while Kasich leads among Republicans 81 - 6 percent.

Despite Strickland's lead in the horse race, voters disapprove 54 - 33 percent of his handling of the economy and give him a 52 - 31 percent failing grade on handling the state budget. Voters say 48 - 31 percent that the Governor has not kept campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on all three questions.

"Incumbents generally start a campaign with a name recognition edge and that is certainly the case in the Governor's race. Sometimes as the challenger becomes better known the race narrows. That has yet to happen in this case, although the share of voters who do not know enough about Kasich to form an opinion is at 52 percent, down from 62 percent April 29," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Kasich still has four months until Election Day and Strickland's other numbers show his potential vulnerability, but at this point the Governor remains ahead despite the anti-incumbency wave sweeping the country."

"The good news for Strickland is that he is ahead. Nevertheless, when an incumbent governor is getting less than 45 percent of the vote four months out, it should make him concerned," Brown added.

Ohio voters give Strickland a split 44 - 42 percent job approval rating, down from 47 - 38 percent in April and 49 - 40 percent approval in March. They view him favorably by a 42 - 37 percent margin, with 19 percent saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Kasich is viewed favorably by 28 percent, unfavorably by 19 percent with 52 percent unable to make a judgment. An indication of how Kasich's lack of visibility is hurting his candidacy is that among white, evangelical Christians, one of the most GOP-leaning groups in the electorate, his favorability is 37 - 11 percent, as 52 percent of such voters don't know enough about him to have an opinion.

Ohio voters' mixed feelings about Strickland's job performance are reflected on similarly close numbers when voters are asked to compare the two candidates on key issues:
  • Voters split on who would do a better job rebuilding the state economy, with 39 percent for Kasich and 38 percent for Strickland;
  • Voters say 41 - 37 percent that Kasich would do a better job handling the state budget;
  • Voters split on who they trust more to keep campaign promises, with 37 percent for Strickland and 36 percent for Kasich.
Immigration

Ohio voters approve 48 - 28 percent of Arizona's immigration law. They say 72 - 22 percent that immigration reform should move in the direction of stricter enforcement rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society. The new law will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics, voters say 43 - 40 percent. And by an overwhelming 79 - 10 percent they think an economic boycott of Arizona is a bad idea.

"Ohio voters like the Arizona approach to illegal immigration so much they would like to see a similar law passed by the State Legislature," said Brown.

From June 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,107 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Strickland           43%     6%    81%    40%    38%    47%    29%
Kasich               38     81      4     37     46     32     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      4      2      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                15     11     11     16     13     16     15
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to Feb 2009)
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009
Strickland           43      44      43      44      40      46      43
Kasich               38      38      38      39      40      36      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       -       1       2       1       1       1
DK/NA                15      17      17      15      18      15      16
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            42%    17%    68%    41%    39%    44%    34%
Unfavorable          37     62     10     41     41     34     49
Hvn't hrd enough     19     17     20     17     18     20     14
REFUSED               2      4      2      1      2      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you . heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Feb 5   Nov 11
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009
Favorable            42      45      46      45      38      60      38
Unfavorable          37      32      35      36      37      19      37
Hvn't hrd enough     19      20      16      16      23      17      23
REFUSED               2       3       3       2       2       3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            28%    53%     6%    28%    36%    22%    37%
Unfavorable          19      5     32     19     19     18     11
Hvn't hrd enough     52     40     61     52     44     59     52
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Jun 29  Dec 10
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2010    2008
Favorable            28      27      24      26      23      28      18
Unfavorable          19      10      10      10       7      19       8
Hvn't hrd enough     52      62      64      62      69      52      73
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              44%    24%    66%    44%    45%    44%    37%
Disapprove           42     67     17     46     48     38     52
DK/NA                13     10     17     10      7     18     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Feb 5   Jun 29  Nov 11
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2010    2009
Approve              44      47      49      48      63      44      45
Disapprove           42      38      40      40      25      42      43
DK/NA                13      15      11      12      12      13      12
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              33%    30%    40%    28%    32%    33%    31%
Disapprove           47     52     38     53     53     42     48
DK/NA                20     18     23     19     16     24     21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Dec 10  Dec 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2008    2006
Approve              33      35      34      31      33      46      25
Disapprove           47      47      46      51      47      35      55
DK/NA                20      19      20      19      20      19      20
 
 
18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Very satisfied        3%     1%     4%     4%     4%     2%     4%
Smwht satisfied      37     29     55     30     32     42     30
Smwht dissatisfied   34     40     26     34     36     32     39
Very dissatisfied    25     30     14     33     27     24     28
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      -      -
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 32% Mar 2009)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Mar 21  Feb 23
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2007    2010*
Very satisfied        3       3       3       2       3       5       2
Smwht satisfied      37      38      35      30      32      49      30
Smwht dissatisfied   34      30      35      36      37      28      36
Very dissatisfied    25      28      26      32      27      16      32
DK/NA                 -       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
19. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Yes                  31%    16%    46%    29%    35%    28%    24%
No                   48     64     29     53     48     48     57
DK/NA                21     20     24     18     18     24     18
 
TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
                                                             YES..........
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Aug 14  Jun 29
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2008    2010
Yes                  31      37      36      34      32      47      31
No                   48      41      41      45      43      31      48
DK/NA                21      22      24      21      25      22      21
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              33%    17%    54%    32%    33%    34%    26%
Disapprove           54     73     27     61     57     51     65
DK/NA                13      9     19      8     10     15      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? (*Low also 33% Nov 2009, Sep 2009 & Jul 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Feb 5   Jun 29
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2010*
Approve              33      36      35      35      33      44      33
Disapprove           54      53      52      53      52      37      54
DK/NA                13      11      13      12      15      19      13
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              31%    16%    50%    31%    33%    30%    24%
Disapprove           52     70     30     57     54     51     65
DK/NA                16     14     20     12     13     19     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Sep 15  Feb 5   Jun 29
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2010
Approve              31      36      37      32      36      48      31
Disapprove           52      48      47      51      47      30      52
DK/NA                16      16      16      17      17      21      16
 
 
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - rebuilding Ohio's economy, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Strickland           38%    11%    68%    34%    35%    40%    25%
Kasich               39     72     11     42     46     34     53
NO DIFF(VOL)          4      3      3      6      4      4      4
DK/NA                19     14     19     19     14     23     19
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - rebuilding Ohio's economy, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Strickland           38      39      38      35      33
Kasich               39      41      38      41      41
NO DIFF(VOL)          4       2       2       2       -
DK/NA                19      18      22      22      27
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Ohio's state budget, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Strickland           37%     9%    68%    35%    34%    39%    23%
Kasich               41     75     12     42     47     37     54
NO DIFF(VOL)          3      3      3      4      3      4      6
DK/NA                18     13     17     19     16     20     17
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Ohio's state budget, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Strickland           37      39      38      36      34
Kasich               41      40      39      42      42
NO DIFF(VOL)          3       2       2       1       -
DK/NA                18      19      21      21      25
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Strickland           37%     9%    69%    33%    34%    40%    22%
Kasich               36     71      9     35     40     32     48
NO DIFF(VOL)          8      6      7     12      8      9     10
DK/NA                19     14     15     20     18     19     19
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Strickland           37      41      40      35
Kasich               36      35      35      36
NO DIFF(VOL)          8       7       5       6
DK/NA                19      18      20      22
 
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Strickland           39%     8%    73%    36%    35%    42%    26%
Kasich               38     75     10     37     45     33     51
NO DIFF(VOL)          4      2      3      6      4      4      5
DK/NA                19     15     14     20     16     21     19
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Strickland           39      42      42      40
Kasich               38      36      34      36
NO DIFF(VOL)          4       3       2       3
DK/NA                19      19      22      21
 
 
27. Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Democrats            22%     -     53%    14%    20%    24%    13%
Republicans          25     60      1     19     30     21     40
Split                49     37     43     63     47     50     42
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      4      5      5
 
TREND: Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today?
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Democrats            22      23      24      22      19
Republicans          25      24      23      21      22
Split                49      48      50      51      52
DK/NA                 4       5       4       7       6
 
 
35. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Integrating          22%     7%    37%    23%    22%    22%    10%
Enforcement          72     87     56     73     73     70     84
DK/NA                 6      6      7      4      5      7      6
 
TREND: Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?
                     Jun 29  Dec 5
                     2010    2007
Integrating          22      20
Enforcement          72      71
DK/NA                 6       9
 
 
36. Based on what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of Arizona's new immigration law?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              48%    68%    29%    51%    57%    40%    60%
Disapprove           28     12     44     27     27     28     17
DK/NA                24     20     28     22     16     31     23
 
 
37. Would you want Ohio to pass a law similar to Arizona's new immigration law or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Yes                  45%    66%    24%    49%    55%    36%    55%
No                   35     18     52     36     32     38     24
DK/NA                20     16     24     15     13     26     20
 
 
38. Do you think Arizona's new immigration law will or will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Will                 40%    24%    58%    37%    36%    44%    25%
Will not             43     63     25     47     52     35     56
DK/NA                17     13     18     16     13     21     20
 
 
39. Some have suggested that Arizona should be boycotted because of its new immigration law. Do you think a boycott of Arizona is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Good idea            10%     3%    19%     9%     9%    11%     8%
Bad idea             79     90     68     82     84     75     84
DK/NA                10      7     13      9      7     13      9