June 30, 2010 - Fisher, Portman Locked In Horse Race In Ohio Senate Bid, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Can't Get Above Water In Key Swing State

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Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Republican Rob Portman remain in a tight race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat with 42 percent for Fisher and 40 percent for Portman, with 17 percent undecided, statistically unchanged from April and March surveys, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

President Barack Obama's job approval remains "underwater" among Ohio voters, with 45 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving, compared to a 45 - 50 percent negative approval rating in an April 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Support for the war in Afghanistan drops to its lowest level in Ohio as 48 percent say the U.S. should not be involved while 46 percent say the U.S. is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan.

Ohio voters still disapprove 55 - 36 percent of the federal health care overhaul passed earlier this year compared to 55 - 38 percent in April.

"The Senate race remains far, far from any kind of clear picture, mostly because neither candidate is well known to Ohioans. Even though Fisher has been a figure in Ohio politics for two decades, 54 percent of voters say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Portman, 66 percent can't rate him. With four months until Election Day the Senate race is wide, wide open," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Besides the horse race, other measures of attitudes towards the candidates are more favorable to the Republican candidate. By 33 - 30 percent voters say they trust Portman more to do in office what he promises on the campaign trail and by 36 - 31 percent they say Portman, rather than Fisher, most shares their values.

Fisher is viewed favorably by 28 percent of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 17 percent. Portman gets a 26 - 7 percent favorability.

"Those numbers indicate that Portman may have the more growth potential of the two," said Brown. "On all these measures, Portman does better than Fisher among independents, often a key to Ohio elections. But both men have so far to go to introduce themselves to the electorate that money could be a very important factor in the race. Money, via television commercials, buys name recognition."

President Obama's Approval

Obama gets a 53 - 40 percent thumbs down from independent voters. His approval rating is 79 - 17 among Democrats while Republicans disapprove 84 - 13 percent. But Obama does get the edge, 40 - 33 percent, when Ohio voters decide whether he is a better president than George W. Bush.

The split in voters' views on Obama are reflected in the 46 - 48 percent split when voters are asked if they want the state's next U.S. Senator to support or oppose his policies.

The good news for Obama is that he gets a better grade than Gov. Ted Strickland in handling the economy, a 54 - 41 percent disapproval, compared to 54 - 33 percent disapproval for the Governor.

"Given Ohio's key position in the Electoral College, the White House needs to keep a sharp eye on the President's numbers in the Buckeye State. They aren't awful, but they aren't good either," said Brown.

Ohio's two U.S. Senators, Sherrod Brown and George Voinovich, get similar scores from the voters: Brown gets a 46 - 29 percent approval rating; Voinovich is at 48 - 31 percent.

From June 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,107 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

2. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Fisher               42%     6%    84%    37%    37%    46%    27%
Portman              40     81      5     39     49     32     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                17     13      9     21     11     21     17
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to Feb 2009)
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009
Fisher               42      40      41      37      36      42      37
Portman              40      37      37      40      39      31      33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       -       -       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       1       2       1       1       2
DK/NA                17      21      21      21      24      26      26
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            28%     9%    48%    25%    28%    28%    20%
Unfavorable          17     31      4     20     23     13     24
Hvn't hrd enough     54     60     47     53     48     58     55
REFUSED               1      1      -      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  Nov 12  May 6   Dec 10
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2008
Favorable            28      27      27      26      25      37      23
Unfavorable          17      13      13      12      15      13      10
Hvn't hrd enough     54      59      60      61      58      48      66
REFUSED               1       2       1       1       2       1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            26%    46%     9%    24%    34%    19%    36%
Unfavorable           7      2     12      7      7      7      3
Hvn't hrd enough     66     51     78     68     58     73     61
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  Nov 12  Jun 30  Dec 10
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2010    2008
Favorable            26      25      25      25      22      26      12
Unfavorable           7       8       8       7       7       7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     66      65      66      66      70      66      80
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            38%    81%     9%    32%    43%    33%    54%
Unfavorable          44      8     77     46     43     45     27
Hvn't hrd enough     13      7     11     15     10     16     13
REFUSED               5      4      3      7      4      6      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Favorable            38      36      37      37
Unfavorable          44      44      45      46
Hvn't hrd enough     13      16      14      13
REFUSED               5       5       5       3
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            42%     9%    84%    31%    33%    49%    26%
Unfavorable          42     79      9     48     52     35     56
Hvn't hrd enough     11      6      6     14      9     12     12
REFUSED               5      7      1      7      7      4      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Favorable            42      42      41      38
Unfavorable          42      43      45      50
Hvn't hrd enough     11      11       9      10
REFUSED               5       4       4       3
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Favorable            31%    55%     9%    34%    42%    23%    47%
Unfavorable          31     10     53     30     30     31     16
Hvn't hrd enough     37     35     38     35     27     44     36
REFUSED               1      1      -      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Favorable            31      38      35      32
Unfavorable          31      28      29      23
Hvn't hrd enough     37      32      35      43
REFUSED               1       1       1       2
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              46%    31%    67%    40%    45%    47%    37%
Disapprove           29     46      8     35     38     22     37
DK/NA                25     23     25     24     17     31     26
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  May 6   Jul 7   Sep 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009
Approve              46      45      45      43      52      41      48
Disapprove           29      31      30      30      24      29      33
DK/NA                25      24      25      26      24      30      20
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              48%    52%    49%    46%    51%    46%    49%
Disapprove           31     35     28     32     35     28     30
DK/NA                21     13     23     23     15     26     21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 55% Feb 2009 / **Disapprove high also 36% Nov 2009)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  May 6   Dec 13  Mar 31
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009*   2006    2010**
Approve              48      47      46      51      55      41      46
Disapprove           31      35      36      32      30      33      36
DK/NA                21      18      18      17      15      26      18
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              41%    26%    58%    39%    39%    42%    33%
Disapprove           26     39     10     31     33     21     34
DK/NA                33     35     32     30     28     37     33
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor? (*Low also 39% Nov 2009 & Jul 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  Nov 12  May 6   Feb 24
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2010*
Approve              41      42      43      39      39      49      39
Disapprove           26      27      23      22      23      17      22
DK/NA                33      30      35      39      37      33      39
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              45%    13%    79%    40%    41%    48%    26%
Disapprove           49     84     17     53     55     45     70
DK/NA                 6      3      4      7      4      8      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 12  Feb 6   Feb 23
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2010
Approve              45      45      47      44      45      67      44
Disapprove           49      50      48      52      50      16      52
DK/NA                 6       5       5       5       5      17       5
 
 
16. Do you think Barack Obama has been a better President than George W. Bush, worse, or about the same as President Bush?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Better               40%     5%    75%    35%    35%    44%    21%
Worse                33     73      5     30     40     28     51
About the same       24     20     15     33     24     24     25
DK/NA                 3      2      5      2      2      4      3
 
TREND: Do you think Barack Obama has been a better President than George W. Bush, worse, or about the same as President Bush?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31
                     2010    2010    2010
Better               40      44      45
Worse                33      34      32
About the same       24      19      20
DK/NA                 3       3       3
 
 
17. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Support              46%    11%    85%    41%    41%    50%    24%
Oppose               48     86     11     50     54     43     69
DK/NA                 6      3      4      9      5      7      6
 
TREND: Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31
                     2010    2010    2010
Support              46      45      44
Oppose               48      48      46
DK/NA                 6       7      10
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              33%    17%    54%    32%    33%    34%    26%
Disapprove           54     73     27     61     57     51     65
DK/NA                13      9     19      8     10     15      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? (*Low also 33% Nov 2009, Sep 2009 & Jul 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 11  Feb 5   Jun 29
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2010*
Approve              33      36      35      35      33      44      33
Disapprove           54      53      52      53      52      37      54
DK/NA                13      11      13      12      15      19      13
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              41%    10%    75%    36%    36%    46%    24%
Disapprove           54     87     21     59     60     50     75
DK/NA                 5      3      4      5      4      5      1
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 12  Feb 6   Feb 23
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2010
Approve              41      42      40      39      42      58      39
Disapprove           54      55      54      57      53      21      57
DK/NA                 5       3       6       4       5      21       4
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Lee Fisher or Rob Portman?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Fisher               30%     6%    55%    27%    28%    31%    21%
Portman              33     62     12     32     44     24     41
NO DIFF(VOL)          5      3      3      7      5      5      6
DK/NA                33     29     31     34     23     41     32
 
 
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Lee Fisher or Rob Portman?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Fisher               31%     7%    58%    26%    29%    33%    23%
Portman              36     67     12     34     47     27     45
NO DIFF(VOL)          3      2      2      5      3      4      5
DK/NA                30     24     27     34     22     37     27
 
 
30. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Right thing          46%    66%    32%    46%    58%    36%    52%
Shld not be inv      48     27     61     50     38     56     41
DK/NA                 6      7      6      4      4      8      8
 
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Nov 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Right thing          46      48      50      55      48
Shouldn't be inv     48      45      43      39      43
DK/NA                 6       7       7       6       9
 
 
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Approve              36%     6%    68%    31%    33%    38%    19%
Disapprove           55     88     23     60     59     51     73
DK/NA                 9      5      9      9      8     10      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29
                     2010    2010
Approve              36      38
Disapprove           55      55
DK/NA                 9       7
 
 
32. If your member of Congress voted for the health care overhaul passed by Congress, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or not make a difference?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
More likely          22%     4%    43%    20%    23%    21%     8%
Less likely          38     72     11     38     43     33     55
No difference        36     21     42     38     30     41     30
DK/NA                 4      3      4      4      4      4      6
 
TREND: If your member of Congress voted for the health care overhaul just passed by Congress, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or not make a difference?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29
                     2010    2010
More likely          22      22
Less likely          38      39
No difference        36      36
DK/NA                 4       3
 
 
33. If you agreed with a candidate for Congress on other issues, but disagreed on the health care overhaul, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Yes                  51%    43%    63%    46%    46%    54%    44%
No                   39     47     26     47     46     34     47
DK/NA                10      9     11      8      8     12      9
 
TREND: If you agreed with a candidate for Congress on other issues, but completely disagreed on the health care overhaul, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not? (*disagreed on the issue of health care reform)
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31
                     2010    2010    2010*
Yes                  51      49      46
No                   39      37      43
DK/NA                10      14      11
 
 
34. Attorneys general from several states have said they will sue to block the recently passed healthcare overhaul plan. Do you think filing a lawsuit to stop the plan from taking effect is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
Good idea            37%    62%    11%    41%    46%    28%    47%
Bad idea             53     29     80     50     46     59     38
DK/NA                10     10      9      9      7     13     15
 
TREND: Attorneys general from several states have said they will sue to block the recently passed healthcare overhaul plan. Do you think filing a lawsuit to stop the plan from taking effect is a good idea or a bad idea?
                     Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31
                     2010    2010    2010
Good idea            37      41      39
Bad idea             53      52      54
DK/NA                10       6       7