October 6, 2010 - Portman Holds 19-Point Lead In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Angry, Pessimistic Voters Back Republican

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Republican Rob Portman remains far ahead of Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, 55 - 36 percent among likely voters, in Ohio's U.S. Senate race according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today that shows the race unchanged from Portman's 55 - 35 percent likely voter lead September 17.

By a 44 - 33 percent margin, likely voters in Ohio want the Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate after the November elections, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Voters also want, 54 - 39 percent, their senator to oppose President Obama's policies.

Portman leads 93 - 3 percent among Republicans and 67 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Fisher carries Democrats 80 - 10 percent. Portman has a small 47 - 43 percent lead among women, but buries Fisher among men 63 - 30 percent.

"It would seem that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher's best shot at victory might be finding a way to stop men from voting. Otherwise, he faces an incredibly uphill battle in the four weeks before Election Day in reversing a 33-point disadvantage among male voters," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that Fisher hasn't been able to make up any ground since the last Quinnipiac University poll is a bad omen for his ability to make this a close race."

"The fact that Ohio likely voters want their U.S. senator to oppose President Barack Obama and want Republicans to control the Senate is further evidence that it will be very, very difficult for Fisher to catch Portman," said Brown.

Portman also benefits from likely voter anger and dissatisfaction with Washington, D.C., and voter frustration with the economy.

In describing their feelings about the federal government, 37 percent of likely voters say they are angry and another 38 percent say they are dissatisfied with it. Angry voters back Portman 81 - 12 percent.

Looking at Ohio's economy, 45 percent of likely voters say it is getting worse, and Portman leads among this group 78 - 14 percent. Among the 14 percent who say the economy is getting better, Fisher leads 79 - 12 percent. The 40 percent of voters who say the economy is the same split 46 - 45 percent.

From September 29 - October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,025 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               36%     3%    80%    25%    30%    43%    26%
Portman              55     93     10     67     63     47     71
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      4      9      8      6     10      2
 
                     ANGRY WITH    RATING ECONOMY Q21
                     FedGvQ22      Better Worse  Same
 
Fisher               12%           79%    14%    46%
Portman              81            12     78     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1             1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -             -      -      -
DK/NA                 6             8      8      9
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? This table includes Leaners.
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 6  Sep 17
                     2010    2010
 
Fisher               36      35
Portman              55      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                 8       9
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY...............
                            CAND CHOICE Q6
                     Tot    LF     RP
 
Made up              85%    83%    87%
Might change         14     17     13
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
5. Is your vote for Senator mainly for Fisher or against Portman? (*subgroups not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY FISHER VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).......
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    *Rep   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    *Evnglcl
 
For Fisher           75%           79%    66%    72%    77%
Against Portman      18            15     30     21     17
DK/NA                 6             7      4      7      6
 
 
6. Is your vote for Senator mainly for Portman or against Fisher? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY PORTMAN VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)......
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    *Dem   Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
For Portman          60%    69%           55%    61%    57%    69%
Against Fisher       34     27            37     32     38     28
DK/NA                 6      4             8      7      5      3
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            30%     8%    59%    23%    24%    36%    21%
Unfavorable          44     70     10     54     50     38     58
Hvn't hrd enough     24     19     29     21     24     24     18
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 6  Sep 17
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            30      29
Unfavorable          44      36
Hvn't hrd enough     24      33
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            45%    76%    11%    53%    49%    41%    62%
Unfavorable          18      1     39     14     18     19      9
Hvn't hrd enough     35     22     48     30     32     38     28
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      1      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 6   Sep 17
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            45      44
Unfavorable          18      20
Hvn't hrd enough     35      34
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
9. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator - The candidateis honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Washington or shares your values?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Honest               28%    22%    30%    31%    25%    30%    32%
Right experience      9      7     12      7      9      9      5
Brings change to DC  28     28     22     35     28     28     28
Shares values        32     40     31     24     35     28     32
DK/NA                 4      3      5      3      3      4      4
 
 
10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Lee Fisher or Rob Portman?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               33%     4%    72%    23%    27%    39%    23%
Portman              52     86     10     64     58     45     67
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL)    1      -      1      1      2      1      -
DK/NA                14     10     17     12     13     14     10
 
 
11. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              39%     5%    83%    26%    34%    45%    24%
Oppose               54     92      9     67     61     46     72
DK/NA                 7      4      7      7      5      9      5
 
 
12. Would you prefer to have Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Democrats            33%     2%    80%    15%    30%    36%    23%
Republicans          44     88      3     50     50     38     60
Doesn't matter       20      9     14     30     17     23     15
DK/NA                 3      2      3      4      4      3      2
 
                     ANGRY WITH
                     FedGvQ22
 
Democrats             8%
Republicans          71
Doesn't matter       17
DK/NA                 4
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              31%     8%    64%    21%    29%    33%    26%
Disapprove           50     75     19     59     54     47     60
DK/NA                19     17     17     20     17     20     13
 
 
21. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Better               14%     4%    31%     6%    13%    15%    12%
Worse                45     64     18     52     47     42     55
The same             40     31     49     41     39     41     33
DK/NA                 2      1      2      2      2      2      -
 
 
22. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Enthusiastic,         3%     2%     7%     2%     1%     5%     1%
Sat/Not enthusiastic 20      4     45     12     15     25     18
Dis/Not angry        38     40     36     39     40     36     38
Angry                37     52     11     48     43     31     41
DK/NA                 1      3      -      1      -      2      2