October 26, 2010 - Kasich Up 6 Points In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Has 17-Point Lead In Senate Race

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Ohio Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has cut Republican John Kasich's lead to 49 - 43 percent among those likely to vote with a week to go before the election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, also has made some progress but still trails Republican Rob Portman 53 - 36 percent in the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey.

Today's results represent a very small shift in support for both Democratic candidates, but time may be running out for them to close the remaining gap. Strickland trailed Kasich 51 - 41 percent in Quinnipiac University's most recent poll survey October 19.

Fisher was behind Portman 55 - 34 percent in an October 20 survey.

"It is difficult to see how Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher wins the election. Despite his gains, he remains 17 points behind with a week to go. A successful comeback would make Harry Truman's victory look like small potatoes by comparison," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Whether it was because he faced a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, or some other reason, Fisher started out the post-primary campaign in trouble and was never able to right the ship."

"Gov. Ted Strickland, on the other hand, has made the race for governor competitive. He still trails by six points, and certainly has his work cut out for him. But Strickland has had the momentum in the last month."

"To be sure, one would much rather be in John Kasich's shoes today, and the Republican remains the favorite to be Ohio's next governor. But if Strickland can continue his momentum he might surprise people. Clearly he is in much better shape than is Fisher," said Brown.

In the Senate race, Portman leads Fisher 96 - 2 percent among Republicans and 58 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Fisher is carrying Democrats 83 - 14 percent.

Kasich is leading 93 - 4 percent among Republicans and 47 - 42 percent among independent voters. Strickland is winning among Democrats 86 - 11 percent. Seven percent of likely voters remain undecided and 9 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind in this final week.

"The race in the last week will target undecided voters and voters who could change their mind," said Brown.

The gender gap is immense: Strickland leads among women 51 - 41 percent, but the GOP candidate is doing even better among men, 56 - 36 percent.

In the Senate race, women split with 45 percent for Portman and 43 percent for Fisher, while Portman overwhelms the Democrat among men 60 - 29 percent.

Kasich is viewed favorably 43 - 37 percent among likely voters, compared to Strickland's split with 43 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable.

Portman gets a 50 - 21 percent favorability rating compared to Fisher's negative 32 - 42 percent rating.

From October 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 686 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich?(This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           43%     4%    86%    42%    36%    51%    28%
Kasich               49     93     11     47     56     41     64
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      0
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      3     10      6      8      8
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 19  Oct 5   Sep 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Strickland           43      41      41      37
Kasich               49      51      50      54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       7       7       7
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY...............
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    TS     JK
 
Made up              91%    91%    91%
Might change          9      9      9
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            43%    10%    83%    38%    37%    49%    28%
Unfavorable          45     81     11     45     52     38     62
Hvn't hrd enough      6      7      5      7      4      9      8
REFUSED               5      2      1      9      6      4      2
 
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 19  Oct 5   Sep 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            43      43      41      36
Unfavorable          45      47      47      52
Hvn't hrd enough      6       7       7       9
REFUSED               5       3       4       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            43%    84%     6%    42%    51%    34%    57%
Unfavorable          37      5     73     33     35     40     29
Hvn't hrd enough     16     11     20     18     10     23     12
REFUSED               3      -      1      6      4      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 19  Oct 5   Sep 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            43      47      46      47
Unfavorable          37      33      30      27
Hvn't hrd enough     16      17      21      24
REFUSED               3       3       2       2
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners).
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               36%     2%    83%    26%    29%    43%    20%
Portman              53     96     14     58     60     45     74
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      1      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      3      3     14      8     11      6
 
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners.)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 20  Oct 6   Sep 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Fisher               36      34      36      35
Portman              53      55      55      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 9      10       8       9
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY.................
                            CAND CHOICE Q4..
                     Tot    LF     RP
 
Made up              88%    89%    86%
Might change         12     10     13
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            32%     4%    72%    24%    29%    36%    19%
Unfavorable          42     78      8     41     48     34     56
Hvn't hrd enough     22     16     19     30     19     26     23
REFUSED               4      2      1      5      4      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     Oct 26  Oct 20  Oct 6  Sep 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            32      29      30      29
Unfavorable          42      42      44      36
Hvn't hrd enough     22      27      24      33
REFUSED               4       2       2       2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            50%    91%    15%    51%    55%    43%    66%
Unfavorable          21      1     42     15     23     18     14
Hvn't hrd enough     27      7     41     32     20     35     17
REFUSED               3      1      2      2      2      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 20  Oct 6   Sep 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            50      47      45      44
Unfavorable          21      22      18      20
Hvn't hrd enough     27      29      35      34
REFUSED               3       2       2       2