November 1, 2010 - Ohio Governor's Race A Dead Heat, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Has 19-Point Lead In Senate Race

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The race for Ohio governor is a dead heat with Republican John Kasich getting 47 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman has an insurmountable 56 - 37 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.

Strickland, who had trailed by double digits earlier in the fall campaign, is leading among Democrats 90 - 6 percent, but Kasich is ahead among Republicans 83 - 10 percent and independent voters 57 - 36 percent in the survey completed Saturday of those who say they are likely to vote or have already cast their ballots.

Critical to the outcome are the 6 percent of likely voters who remain undecided and another 5 percent who have selected a candidate but say they could change their mind.

"The governor's race is a statistical tie. It could go either way," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back. The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign."

Strickland is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by the same percentage of voters. Kasich has an edge on that measure, with 47 percent of likely voters giving him a up and 37 percent a thumbs down.

There is a sizable gender gap with men backing Kasich 55 - 41 percent and women supporting Strickland 50 - 41 percent.

In the Senate race, Portman leads Fisher among Republicans 94 - 3 percent and among independent voters 70 - 23 percent, while Fisher carries Democrats 83 - 11 percent. Portman's sweep is so broad that he carries women 52 - 40 percent and men 61 - 34 percent.

"The Senate race has never been close and looks more like what we often see with a popular incumbent seeking re-election rather than an open seat contest." said Brown.

From October 25 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 848 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           46%    10%    90%    36%    41%    50%    29%
Kasich               47     83      6     57     55     41     62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6      3      6      3      8      8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY...............
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    TS     JK
 
Made up              95%    94%    96%
Might change          5      6      4
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            45%    13%    81%    39%    43%    46%    32%
Unfavorable          45     77      4     56     51     39     59
Hvn't hrd enough      6      8      8      3      4      8      6
REFUSED               4      2      7      2      2      6      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            47%    82%     7%    58%    54%    42%    61%
Unfavorable          37     10     70     30     36     39     24
Hvn't hrd enough     12      6     19      9      8     14     12
REFUSED               4      2      3      4      2      5      3
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners).
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               37%     3%    83%    23%    34%    40%    21%
Portman              56     94     11     70     61     52     72
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      5      7      4      8      6
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY.................
                            CAND CHOICE Q4..
                     Tot    LF     RP
 
Made up              93%    93%    93%
Might change          7      7      7
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            31%     4%    66%    20%    29%    33%    21%
Unfavorable          43     74     11     49     49     37     47
Hvn't hrd enough     23     21     20     27     21     25     28
REFUSED               4      2      4      4      2      5      4
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            52%    85%    12%    66%    57%    48%    60%
Unfavorable          20      3     42     14     21     19     12
Hvn't hrd enough     25     11     41     19     21     29     26
REFUSED               3      2      4      1      2      3      2