March 23, 2011 - Ohio Women Lead In Disapproval Of New Governor, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Efforts To Curb Unions

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Ohio voters disapprove 46 - 30 percent of the way Gov. John Kasich is handling his job, with women disapproving 48 - 25 percent and men disapproving 44 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters say 53 - 36 percent that Gov. Kasich's budget is unfair to them.

Voters oppose legislation working its way through the Ohio legislature that would limit the ability of public workers to collectively bargain, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University survey finds. But the question wording has some influence on voter response:
  • Half of those surveyed were asked about a bill that limited "collective bargaining," and oppose the measure 48 - 41 percent;
  • The other half were asked about a bill that limited "collective bargaining rights," and oppose that measure 54 - 35 percent.
"Gov. John Kasich has gotten off to a rocky start with Ohio voters, perhaps not surprising given the size of the cuts in public services and state spending that he has proposed," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "Although there is almost nothing in these numbers that Kasich can point to as evidence of his popularity or that of his proposals, he can take solace from the fact that he has almost four years to turn around public opinion.

"The size of the gender gap in Gov. Kasich's approval rating is noteworthy. There also are gender gaps on other questions regarding how to deal with the state's budget.

"Whether collective bargaining is a right or not is in the eye of the beholder, but the word 'right' appears to have an effect on the voters' response. But no matter how the question is asked, voters oppose limits on collective bargaining."

By 55 - 37 percent voters say Kasich should not have pledged to meet the state's projected $8 billion budget deficit by only cutting spending and not raising taxes. And by 64 - 23 percent they say he will not keep that no-tax pledge, even though he presented a balanced budget plan that in fact does not raise levies.

Then when given a choice of balancing the budget only by spending cuts, or by combining them and tax increases to reduce the amount of cuts needed, by 65 - 27 percent voters opted for not raising levies at all.

"It's a pretty fair bet that the controversy over the Kasich proposals has made him and them unpopular with voters. Yet when voters are asked about his general approach of cutting but not taxing, that policy does much better in the court of public opinion," said Brown. "At this point, Kasich has not convinced voters, especially women, that he is being fair, and he is on the wrong side of the collective bargaining issue which has received major attention."

Republicans approve of Kasich's job performance 63 - 18 percent, but his disapproval is 67 - 11 percent among Democrats and 49 - 25 percent among independent voters.

Kasich's budget proposal is fair to people like them, Republicans say 63 - 25 percent. Democrats say it's unfair 73 - 17 percent, as do independent voters 57 - 32 percent.

Men say "unfair" 49 - 43 percent and women say "unfair" 57 - 29 percent.

Voters oppose 58 - 35 percent banning public employees from striking, but they support 66 - 27 percent the part of Kasich's budget that would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums.

By 46 - 39 percent voters oppose Kasich's plan to sell five state prisons to private firms as a way to save money.

From March 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,384 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              30%    63%    11%    25%    37%    25%    34%
Disapprove           46     18     67     49     44     48     37
DK/NA                23     20     22     25     20     27     29
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              28%    30%    36%    20%    32%    32%    19%
Disapprove           50     48     31     57     41     47     58
DK/NA                22     22     33     24     27     21     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                     Mar 23  Jan 19
                     2011    2011
 
Approve              30      30
Disapprove           46      22
DK/NA                23      48
 
 
11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        3%     5%     2%     1%     3%     2%     4%
Smwht satisfied      26     38     18     24     28     25     32
Smwht dissatisfied   34     34     34     36     34     34     29
Very dissatisfied    36     22     46     37     35     37     33
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      2      2
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very satisfied        2%     2%     9%     2%     1%     3%     -
Smwht satisfied      30     23     32     19     35     20     21
Smwht dissatisfied   38     33     30     29     32     38     26
Very dissatisfied    29     40     28     48     32     38     51
DK/NA                 1      2      1      2      -      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 23  Jan 19  Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 31  Mar 21  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2010    2010    2010    2007    2011
 
Very satisfied        3       3       3       3       3       5       3
Smwht satisfied      26      28      37      38      35      49      26
Smwht dissatisfied   34      39      34      30      35      28      34
Very dissatisfied    36      28      25      28      26      16      36
DK/NA                 1       1       -       1       1       1       1
 
 
12. (Split Sample) As you may know, there is a proposed law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees?
                            Union                                     WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    HsHld  Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              41%    23%    59%    26%    41%    54%    30%    45%
Oppose               48     66     33     65     47     41     55     49
DK/NA                10     12      8      9     12      5     15      6
 
 
13. (Split Sample) As you may know, there is a proposed law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees?
                            Union                                     WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    HsHld  Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              35%    18%    54%    23%    33%    42%    28%    42%
Oppose               54     75     35     66     58     50     58     45
DK/NA                11      7     11     11      9      8     14     13
 
 
14. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  37%    55%    27%    36%    43%    32%    39%
No                   55     37     67     56     51     58     54
DK/NA                 8      8      5      8      6     10      6
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  33%    38%    46%    33%    35%    39%    19%
No                   60     53     46     59     55     56     75
DK/NA                 7      8      8      8     10      5      6
 
 
15. The proposed law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              35%    53%    25%    34%    39%    32%    41%
Oppose               58     40     69     59     56     59     53
DK/NA                 7      7      6      7      5      9      5
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              38%    33%    38%    43%    37%    32%    24%
Oppose               58     59     52     49     59     59     71
DK/NA                 3      8     10      8      4      9      5
 
 
16. The proposed law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              66%    73%    60%    65%    66%    65%    64%
Oppose               27     21     35     24     27     27     28
DK/NA                 8      6      5     11      7      8      9
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              64%    66%    69%    56%    71%    62%    49%
Oppose               29     24     27     37     24     29     39
DK/NA                 7     10      4      6      5      9     11
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              31%    60%    14%    28%    36%    27%    38%
Disapprove           51     22     73     53     48     53     42
DK/NA                18     18     13     19     16     20     20
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              30%    30%    41%    20%    34%    33%    20%
Disapprove           53     52     39     62     46     53     62
DK/NA                17     18     21     18     20     14     18
 
 
18. How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are, very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very serious         62%    71%    55%    62%    62%    61%    65%
Smwht serious        33     27     40     30     33     33     30
Not too serious       2      1      3      3      2      3      2
Not at all serious    -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      2      5      3      3      2
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very serious         55%    64%    62%    52%    64%    65%    52%
Smwht serious        40     30     30     39     35     29     41
Not too serious       3      2      6      2      1      3      4
Not at all serious    -      -      -      1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      2      7      -      3      2
 
TREND: How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are - Very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious?
                     Mar 23  Jan 19  Mar 21  Feb 01
                     2011    2011    2007    2007
 
Very serious         62      69      37      43
Smwht serious        33      27      48      43
Not too serious       2       2       9       7
Not at all serious    -       -       1       1
DK/NA                 3       2       6       6
 
 
19. Governor John Kasich has pledged that in trying to balance the state's budget that he will not raise taxes or fees. Do you think John Kasich should have made this pledge or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  37%    52%    28%    37%    38%    37%    46%
No                   55     40     67     55     56     54     48
DK/NA                 8      7      6      8      6      9      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  31%    38%    35%    30%    39%    48%    28%
No                   62     53     52     63     58     47     66
DK/NA                 7      9     13      7      3      6      6
 
 
20. Do you think John Kasich will be able to keep this pledge or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  23%    39%    15%    21%    24%    22%    24%
No                   64     47     76     67     63     65     62
DK/NA                13     14     10     12     13     13     14
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  26%    21%    25%    18%    21%    27%    20%
No                   63     63     57     77     71     63     70
DK/NA                11     15     18      6      8     11     10
 
 
21. Do you think Governor Kasich's proposals to balance the state budget are fair or unfair to people like you?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fair                 36%    63%    17%    32%    43%    29%    41%
Unfair               53     25     73     57     49     57     46
DK/NA                11     12     10     10      8     14     13
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fair                 32%    36%    34%    33%    44%    35%    21%
Unfair               56     54     53     61     40     56     70
DK/NA                12     10     12      6     16      9      9
 
 
22. What do you think about the cuts in state spending that Governor Kasich has proposed in order to balance the state budget? Do you think Kasich's cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Too far              40%    18%    62%    38%    35%    46%    34%
Not far enough       15     14     10     18     20     10     15
About right          30     55     17     26     33     27     36
DK/NA                15     13     11     18     13     17     15
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Too far              46%    42%    32%    50%    31%    39%    56%
Not far enough       12     15     22      9     14     16      7
About right          28     27     36     27     38     27     20
DK/NA                14     16     11     13     17     18     16
 
 
23. Do you think that Governor Kasich's spending cuts will help Ohio's economy, hurt Ohio's economy, or not make a difference?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Help                 31%    60%    11%    28%    37%    25%    35%
Hurt                 35     16     51     36     33     37     33
No difference        26     16     30     29     23     28     20
DK/NA                 8      7      9      6      7     10     12
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Help                 30%    31%    31%    21%    39%    26%    20%
Hurt                 34     37     33     32     29     40     43
No difference        28     22     30     38     25     25     30
DK/NA                 8     10      5     10      7      9      7
 
 
24. Which comes closer to your view regarding Governor Kasich's budget proposal: A) Taxes should not be raised, there should only be spending cuts. B) Taxes should be raised so that there will be fewer spending cuts.
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
A) Only cuts         65%    80%    52%    65%    65%    64%    74%
B) Taxes/Fewer cuts  27     15     39     25     30     24     19
DK/NA                 9      5      9      9      5     12      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
A) Only cuts         71%    63%    66%    53%    65%    62%    54%
B) Taxes/Fewer cuts  25     27     27     31     26     27     34
DK/NA                 4     10      7     16      9     12     12
 
 
25. Governor Kasich has proposed selling off five state prisons to help balance the state budget. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              39%    52%    27%    39%    42%    36%    44%
Oppose               46     27     62     49     45     48     38
DK/NA                15     21     12     12     13     17     18
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              44%    40%    44%    29%    39%    30%    34%
Oppose               45     47     34     60     42     53     53
DK/NA                11     14     22     10     19     17     13