May 18, 2011 - Ohio Gov's Approval Up, But More Still Disapprove, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Repeal Of Law That Limits Unions

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Ohio voters disapprove 49 - 38 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, compared to 46 - 30 disapproval in March, while by 54 - 36 percent they say that SB 5 should be repealed, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Registered voters disapprove of Kasich's handling of the state budget 53 - 35 percent compared to 51 - 31 percent disapproval in a March 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

And by 53 - 36 percent they say the governor's proposals are unfair to people like them, identical to the March 23 survey findings.

"Gov. John Kasich's job approval has ticked up slightly, but he still has a long way to go to get back even to parity among voters," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Most of his increase has come among independents and women voters who have turned slightly less negative on him."

In today's survey, independent voters disapprove of Kasich's job performance 47 - 37 percent, better than the 49 - 25 percent disapproval in March. Republicans approve 66 - 22 percent compared to 63 - 18 percent in the last survey, while Democrats disapprove 73 - 15 percent compared to 67 - 11 percent in March.

There is still a large gender gap on Kasich: Men split with 44 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving, while women disapprove 51 - 33 percent.

"Although it is a long way until November when opponents of SB 5 hope to ask voters to overturn it, at this point there is strong support for repealing Gov. Kasich's signature plan."

"Not only does he need to rebuild his image, but the governor will need to move a lot of voters over the next six months if he wants his plan to survive," said Brown. "Voters also say they are opposed to several parts of the new law."

Calling for repeal of SB 5 are Democrats 72 - 14 percent and independent voters 56 - 35 percent, while Republicans support the law 58 - 33 percent. Men want repeal 49 - 42 percent, while women back repeal 58 - 31 percent.

Voters say 52 - 38 percent that limiting collective bargaining for public employees is not needed to balance the budget. Looking at specifics of SB 5, Ohio voters:
  • Oppose 58 - 35 percent banning strikes by public employees;
  • Support 59 - 34 percent requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Voters in union households split 47 - 46 percent;
  • Oppose 54 - 38 percent preventing public employee unions from bargaining over health care plans;
  • Support 58 - 34 percent, including 50 - 43 percent in union households, requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions;
  • Support 57 - 35 percent replacing automatic pay increases based on length of service with raises based on merit. Union households are opposed 51 - 44 percent;
  • Oppose 50 - 45 percent eliminating seniority as the sole factor in layoffs.
Asked about Kasich's proposed cuts in state spending, 42 percent of voters say they go too far; 15 percent say not far enough and 30 percent say they are about right. This is almost identical to the results of the March survey.

Half of the 1,379 registered voters surveyed were asked when it came to balancing the state budget whether only spending should be cut or whether taxes should be raised so there would be fewer spending cuts. Of that group 64 percent said only spending should be cut and 30 percent said taxes should be raised also.

The other half of the survey group was given a choice between just spending cuts or taxes hikes on the wealthy. By 50 - 42 percent this group preferred tax hikes on the wealthy which would reduce the need for spending cuts.

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,379 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              38%    66%    15%    37%    44%    33%    42%
Disapprove           49     22     73     47     46     51     44
DK/NA                13     11     11     16     10     16     14
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              37%    36%    32%    31%    44%    47%    26%
Disapprove           58     47     51     61     42     44     64
DK/NA                 5     18     17      8     15      9     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                     May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              38      30      30
Disapprove           49      46      22
DK/NA                13      23      48
 
 
12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        3%     5%     2%     2%     4%     2%     2%
Smwht satisfied      30     38     25     29     33     27     32
Smwht dissatisfied   32     33     30     34     28     35     33
Very dissatisfied    35     22     42     35     34     35     30
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very satisfied        2%     2%     4%     2%     3%     4%     1%
Smwht satisfied      24     30     33     17     35     35     24
Smwht dissatisfied   34     30     30     34     33     32     28
Very dissatisfied    38     37     33     44     29     28     46
DK/NA                 1      1      1      3      -      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19  Jun 29  Apr 29  Mar 21  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2007    2011
 
Very satisfied        3       3       3       3       3       5       3
Smwht satisfied      30      26      28      37      38      49      26
Smwht dissatisfied   32      34      39      34      30      28      34
Very dissatisfied    35      36      28      25      28      16      36
DK/NA                 1       1       1       -       1       1       1
 
 
15a.(Split Sample) As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              38%    61%    18%    36%    40%    36%    33%
Oppose               50     30     63     54     50     50     57
DK/NA                12      9     19     10     10     14     10
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a *new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011*
 
Support              38      41
Oppose               50      48
DK/NA                12      10
 
 
15b.(Split Sample) As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              38%    56%    15%    41%    46%    31%    40%
Oppose               51     32     76     45     48     54     48
DK/NA                11     13      9     14      6     15     12
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a *new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011*
 
Support              38      35
Oppose               51      54
DK/NA                11      11
 
 
16. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Kept                 36%    58%    14%    35%    42%    31%    36%
Repealed             54     33     72     56     49     58     52
DK/NA                10      9     14      9      9     12     12
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Kept                 35%    35%    29%    27%    38%    45%    26%
Repealed             61     51     54     70     54     44     68
DK/NA                 4     14     17      3      8     10      6
 
 
17. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  38%    56%    19%    40%    42%    35%    41%
No                   52     36     68     53     52     52     50
DK/NA                10      8     13      8      6     14      9
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  38%    39%    33%    27%    39%    43%    24%
No                   55     49     55     61     53     47     68
DK/NA                 7     12     12     12      8     10      8
 
TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011
 
Yes                  38      37
No                   52      55
DK/NA                10       8
 
 
18. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              35%    53%    17%    35%    41%    30%    40%
Oppose               58     39     78     58     55     61     54
DK/NA                 7      7      5      7      4      9      6
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              35%    31%    34%    27%    44%    38%    26%
Oppose               61     59     63     65     51     56     70
DK/NA                 4     10      2      8      5      6      4
 
TREND: The *new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011*
 
Support              35      35
Oppose               58      58
DK/NA                 7       7
 
 
19. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              59%    72%    42%    60%    65%    53%    58%
Oppose               34     21     49     32     30     38     35
DK/NA                 7      7      9      7      6      9      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              61%    57%    61%    51%    59%    59%    47%
Oppose               33     33     35     45     34     33     46
DK/NA                 5     10      4      4      7      7      7
 
TREND: The *new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011*
 
Support              59      66
Oppose               34      27
DK/NA                 7       8
 
 
20. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              38%    55%    21%    36%    42%    34%    43%
Oppose               54     36     72     56     53     55     49
DK/NA                 8      9      7      8      5     10      8
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              35%    33%    44%    37%    45%    44%    33%
Oppose               61     56     52     54     49     49     63
DK/NA                 5     12      4      8      7      7      5
 
 
21. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              58%    67%    45%    58%    64%    52%    58%
Oppose               34     24     44     34     29     38     34
DK/NA                 9      8     11      8      7     11      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              59%    59%    54%    50%    60%    53%    50%
Oppose               36     28     38     45     34     38     43
DK/NA                 5     12      9      4      5      9      7
 
 
22. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              57%    72%    41%    58%    64%    51%    58%
Oppose               35     23     49     35     31     40     30
DK/NA                 7      5     10      7      5      9     12
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              59%    58%    61%    46%    63%    49%    44%
Oppose               37     33     35     42     33     40     51
DK/NA                 4      9      5     12      4     11      5
 
 
23. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              45%    56%    31%    48%    54%    37%    46%
Oppose               50     38     64     48     44     55     48
DK/NA                 5      6      5      5      3      7      6
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              46%    42%    47%    29%    50%    49%    36%
Oppose               49     51     47     69     47     48     62
DK/NA                 5      7      6      2      3      3      3
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              35%    63%    12%    35%    44%    27%    40%
Disapprove           53     27     75     51     48     57     47
DK/NA                12      9     13     14      8     16     13
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              37%    33%    29%    23%    37%    45%    23%
Disapprove           56     51     55     68     48     49     70
DK/NA                 6     16     15      8     15      5      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011
 
Approve              35      31
Disapprove           53      51
DK/NA                12      18
 
 
25. How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very serious         64%    68%    58%    64%    63%    64%    63%
Smwht serious        33     27     38     33     32     33     35
Not too serious       2      2      2      2      3      2      1
Not at all serious    -      -      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      2      1      2
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very serious         61%    66%    64%    61%    64%    58%    58%
Smwht serious        34     31     33     33     31     37     37
Not too serious       3      2      1      1      3      1      4
Not at all serious    -      -      1      -      -      2      -
DK/NA                 1      1      1      5      1      2      1
 
TREND: How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious?
                     May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19  Mar 21  Feb 01
                     2011    2011    2011    2007    2007
 
Very serious         64      62      69      37      43
Smwht serious        33      33      27      48      43
Not too serious       2       2       2       9       7
Not at all serious    -       -       -       1       1
DK/NA                 1       3       2       6       6
 
 
26. Do you think Governor Kasich's proposals to balance the state budget are fair or unfair to people like you?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fair                 36%    63%    10%    38%    46%    27%    40%
Unfair               53     28     78     51     47     58     49
DK/NA                11      9     12     11      7     15     11
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fair                 38%    34%    31%    18%    41%    42%    25%
Unfair               57     53     52     72     45     48     67
DK/NA                 5     12     17     10     14     10      8
 
TREND: Do you think Governor Kasich's proposals to balance the state budget are fair or unfair to people like you?
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011
 
Fair                 36      36
Unfair               53      53
DK/NA                11      11
 
 
27. Do you think an increase in taxes is necessary to balance the budget or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  30%    21%    38%    32%    31%    28%    22%
No                   65     76     55     63     64     65     73
DK/NA                 5      4      7      5      4      6      5
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  33%    33%    27%    23%    28%    23%    35%
No                   63     62     69     66     67     71     60
DK/NA                 5      5      5     11      5      6      6
 
 
28. What do you think about the cuts in state spending that Governor Kasich has proposed in order to balance the state budget? Do you think Kasich's cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Too far              42%    17%    69%    39%    35%    48%    37%
Not far enough       15     20      9     16     18     13     13
About right          30     53     10     33     37     25     38
DK/NA                12     11     12     12     10     14     12
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Too far              49%    42%    42%    57%    37%    32%    57%
Not far enough       12     16     17     10     15     19     12
About right          32     29     24     14     34     38     21
DK/NA                 7     13     17     18     14     11     11
 
TREND: What do you think about the cuts in state spending that Governor Kasich has proposed in order to balance the state budget? Do you think Kasich's cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011
 
Too far              42      40
Not far enough       15      15
About right          30      30
DK/NA                12      15
 
 
29. Do you think that Governor Kasich's spending cuts will help Ohio's economy, hurt Ohio's economy, or not make a difference?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Help                 34%    58%    11%    35%    43%    26%    39%
Hurt                 32     12     52     31     26     38     26
No difference        26     20     30     27     26     26     27
DK/NA                 8     10      8      7      5     11      8
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Help                 33%    36%    27%    16%    37%    35%    23%
Hurt                 34     33     36     38     27     28     42
No difference        26     23     27     34     28     29     29
DK/NA                 7      8     10     12      8      8      6
 
TREND: Do you think that Governor Kasich's spending cuts will help Ohio's economy, hurt Ohio's economy, or not make a difference?
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011   2011
 
Help                 34      31
Hurt                 32      35
No difference        26      26
DK/NA                 8       8
 
 
30a. (Split Sample) Which comes closer to your view regarding Governor Kasich's budget proposal: A) Taxes should not be raised, there should only be spending cuts, or B) Taxes should be raised so that there will be fewer spending cuts.
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Only cuts            64%    77%    52%    63%    65%    64%    68%
Taxes/Fewer cuts     30     16     42     32     31     28     25
DK/NA                 6      7      5      5      4      8      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Only cuts            60%    60%    70%    69%    67%    74%    52%
Taxes/Fewer cuts     34     35     23     26     26     18     45
DK/NA                 6      4      7      5      7      8      4
 
TREND: Which comes closer to your view regarding Governor Kasich's budget proposal: A) Taxes should not be raised, there should only be spending cuts, or B) Taxes should be raised so that there will be fewer spending cuts.
                     May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011
 
A) Only cuts         64      65
B) Taxes/Fewer cuts  30      27
DK/NA                 6       9
 
 
30b. (Split Sample) Which comes closer to your view regarding Governor Kasich's budget proposal: A) Taxes should not be raised, there should only be spending cuts, or B) Taxes should be raised on the wealthy, so that there will be fewer spending cuts.
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Only cuts            42%    69%    25%    36%    45%    39%    47%
Tax wealthy/
 Fewer cuts          50     23     71     55     50     51     46
DK/NA                 8      7      4      9      5     10      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Only cuts            47%    42%    40%    19%    37%    51%    35%
Tax wealthy/
 Fewer cuts          45     51     49     70     54     47     57
DK/NA                 9      7     11     10      9      2      9