May 19, 2011 - Blackwell Leads GOP Pack To Challenge Brown In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Gets Almost No Osama Bounce

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Ken Blackwell, the former Republican nominee for governor, has an early Republican primary lead in the 2012 U.S. Senate race and runs best against Sen. Sherrod Brown, trailing the Democratic incumbent 44 - 35 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Brown tops State Treasurer Josh Mandel 45 - 31 percent and leads former State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 44 - 28 percent.

Ohio voters approve 49 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, compared to a 47 - 48 percent approval in a March 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Independent voters shift from a negative 42 - 50 percent in March to a positive 49 - 44 percent today. Republican and Democratic approval is little changed.

President Obama's lead over an unnamed Republican in a November, 2012 trial run is down from 41 - 34 percent in March to 41 - 39 percent now, a virtual tie. Voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether he deserves a second term in office, compared to 45 - 46 percent in March.

The gender gap continues as men disapprove of Obama 50 - 45 percent while women approve 53 - 40 percent.

"The six-point bounce President Barack Obama got in Quinnipiac University's May 5 national poll goes flat when Ohio voters judge his job performance," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His approval rating has barely moved, but symbolically it's on the positive side again. His matchup against an unnamed Republican, however, is down. In Ohio at least, the question of whether there is a 'bin Laden bounce' apparently has been answered. And the White House can't be happy with the answer."

Among Republican voters, Blackwell gets 33 percent in the U.S. Senate primary, with Mandel at 17 percent and Coughlin at 5 percent. Another 43 percent are undecided.

Sen. Brown, who has a 49 - 30 percent job approval rating, has a 48 - 31 percent rating among independents, the key voter group. He gets thumbs up from Democrats 72 - 11 percent. Republicans disapprove 48 - 27 percent which is a better score than most Democrats get. For example, Republicans disapprove of Obama 84 - 12 percent.

Women are the key to Brown's lead over three potential Republican challengers:
  • Women back Brown over Blackwell 49 - 27 percent while men back the Republican 43 - 38 percent;
  • Brown leads Mandel 40 - 36 percent among men and 50 - 26 percent among women;
  • Men split with 38 percent for Brown and 36 percent for Coughlin, but women go with the Democrat 50 - 22 percent.
"Sen. Sherrod Brown obviously begins the campaign with a strong lead against any Republican," said Brown. "But he is not necessarily home free. He is unable to get 50 percent against any of the three potential challengers, which is the dividing line for incumbents who are overwhelmingly favored for re-election.

"In the Republican primary, Blackwell's lead is not much of one at all, given how much better he is known than the other GOP aspirants and the fact that almost half of GOP voters are undecided at this point," said Brown.

Ohio voters approve 38 - 21 percent of the job Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman is doing. Another 41 percent are undecided on the first-termer.

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,379 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ken Blackwell, Josh Mandel, and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Blackwell            33%    38%    27%
Mandel               17     21     12
Coughlin              5      6      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1
DK/NA                43     32     55
 
 
2. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Ken Blackwell the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                44%     7%    80%    43%    38%    49%    31%
Blackwell            35     75      5     29     43     27     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                18     14     12     25     16     19     14
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Brown                47%    48%    46%    42%    37%    34%    48%
Blackwell            33     30     32     31     46     42     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      4      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      4      1      1      2
DK/NA                17     18     17     23     15     22     19
 
 
3. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                45%     8%    80%    46%    40%    50%    30%
Mandel               31     69      3     23     36     26     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      -      1      1      1
DK/NA                21     20     14     28     21     21     21
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Brown                48%    49%    47%    53%    41%    34%    50%
Mandel               32     28     28     22     36     35     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      3      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      3      2      1      1
DK/NA                17     21     22     22     20     28     23
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                44%     9%    80%    43%    38%    50%    32%
Coughlin             28     65      2     22     36     22     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      4      3      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                23     22     14     30     21     24     21
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Brown                47%    47%    48%    45%    42%    32%    48%
Coughlin             25     25     27     22     35     41     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      4      5      2      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      3      2      1      2
DK/NA                24     23     19     28     20     25     26
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              38%    58%    23%    36%    45%    33%    41%
Disapprove           21      8     29     23     22     20     17
DK/NA                41     34     48     41     33     47     42
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              38%    33%    34%    18%    58%    43%    33%
Disapprove           18     22     22     40     21     14     25
DK/NA                44     45     44     43     21     43     42
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              38      30      34
Disapprove           21      25      16
DK/NA                41      45      51
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              49%    27%    72%    48%    47%    51%    40%
Disapprove           30     48     11     31     37     24     35
DK/NA                21     24     17     21     16     25     25
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              50%    54%    53%    54%    41%    40%    54%
Disapprove           34     25     25     24     33     37     27
DK/NA                17     20     22     22     26     23     19
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE....... DIS....
                                                     High   Low     High
                     May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20  Jun 30  May 06 Jul 07  Sep 15
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2009   2009    2009
 
Approve              49      43      45      46      52     41      48
Disapprove           30      27      25      29      24     29      33
DK/NA                21      30      30      25      24     30      20
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              49%    12%    84%    49%    45%    53%    29%
Disapprove           45     84     10     44     50     40     65
DK/NA                 6      4      6      7      5      6      6
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              53%    52%    54%    38%    48%    39%    54%
Disapprove           42     41     43     55     48     56     42
DK/NA                 5      7      3      7      5      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20  Jun 30  Apr 29  Feb 06  Feb 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2009    2010
 
Approve              49      47      49      45      45      67      44
Disapprove           45      48      46      49      50      16      52
DK/NA                 6       5       5       6       5      17       5
 
 
9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                41%     6%    81%    35%    36%    46%    23%
Republican           39     84      6     32     44     34     54
DEPENDS(VOL)         13      8      8     22     13     14     15
DK/NA                 7      3      5     11      6      7      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Obama                46%    43%    39%    32%    42%    31%    44%
Republican           37     35     41     34     44     46     33
DEPENDS(VOL)         12     16      9     23     10     13     16
DK/NA                 5      6     11     11      4     10      8
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate?
                     May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Obama                41      41      44
Republican           39      34      39
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 13      16      11
DK/NA                 7       9       6
 
 
10. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves reelect 47%     9%    85%    46%    42%    52%    31%
No/Does not          47     89     11     44     52     42     64
DK/NA                 6      2      4     10      6      6      5
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes/Deserves reelect 51%    50%    46%    35%    47%    40%    51%
No/Does not          45     44     47     52     48     54     44
DK/NA                 4      6      8     13      5      6      5
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves reelect 47      45      48
No/Does not          47      46      44
DK/NA                 6       9       8
 
 
11. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves reelect 49%    21%    76%    50%    43%    54%    39%
No/Does not          31     57      9     28     41     21     37
DK/NA                20     23     15     22     15     25     24
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes/Deserves reelect 49%    54%    49%    54%    41%    41%    52%
No/Does not          33     27     24     21     33     42     27
DK/NA                18     19     26     25     25     17     21
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves reelect 49      45      45
No/Does not          31      30      30
DK/NA                20      25      25
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              39%     6%    73%    37%    35%    43%    22%
Disapprove           55     91     21     57     61     51     74
DK/NA                 5      2      6      6      4      6      4
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              44%    41%    41%    26%    39%    33%    46%
Disapprove           55     53     52     70     55     62     50
DK/NA                 2      7      7      5      5      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? (*Low Approve also 39% Feb 2010)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 19  Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 23  Feb 6   May 19
                     2011    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2011*
 
Approve              39      41      42      40      39      58      39
Disapprove           55      54      55      54      57      21      55
DK/NA                 5       5       3       6       4      21       5
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              50%    17%    82%    47%    46%    53%    34%
Disapprove           44     76     12     46     50     39     60
DK/NA                 6      7      7      7      5      8      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              53%    51%    49%    52%    47%    43%    54%
Disapprove           42     42     41     44     46     53     40
DK/NA                 4      7     10      4      8      4      6