July 20, 2011 - Ohio Gov's Low Approval Slips Further, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Support For Photo Id To Vote Almost 4-1

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Ohio Gov. John Kasich is sinking slowly into the quicksand of voter disapproval, with a 50 - 35 percent thumbs down on job approval, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from a 49 - 38 percent job disapproval May 18.

Opponents of Gov. Kasich's legislation to limit collective bargaining for public employees retain a 56 - 32 lead in the expected November referendum, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

The good news for Republicans is that Ohio voters support by an overwhelming 78 - 20 percent efforts to require photo identification in order to vote. By a narrow 48 - 45 percent voters support a proposed constitutional amendment which would block any federal efforts to require Ohio residents to purchase health insurance.

"Gov. John Kasich is sinking lower in the eyes of Ohio voters, dropping from an 11-point approval deficit two months ago to a 15-point deficit today," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Even after the state budget has been approved as he promised without raising taxes, and even though the Quinnipiac University poll finds that 63 percent say they favor such an approach, Gov. Kasich's name remains mud in the eyes of the Ohio electorate.

"Voters may say 2-1 they wanted him to balance the budget just through spending cuts rather than with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, but they don't like the cuts that he and the Legislature approved. By 50 - 32 percent, voters say the budget is unfair to people like them. When voters think a politician is treating them unfairly, that's not good for the politician's political health."

Kasich's job performance gets a 66 - 19 percent approval from Republicans, but disapproval is 76 - 12 percent among Democrats and 48 - 34 percent among independent voters. The depth of his problem is evidenced by his split 43 - 42 percent rating among white evangelical Christians, typically a very pro-Republican group.

The numbers on the proposed effort to repeal SB5 limiting collective bargaining in a November referendum are similar to those on Kasich personally. Republicans oppose repeal 56 - 35 percent, while repeal wins 75 - 14 percent support from Democrats and 52 - 33 percent support from independent voters.

"Kasich has until 2014 when he presumably will face the voters, to turn his political fortunes around, but the timeline for the vote on SB5, which is obviously a referendum on the governor's agenda, is much shorter," said Brown. "A loss on SB5 would be a no confidence vote on the governor from the voters of Ohio."

Perhaps the only ray of sunshine for Kasich in the budget numbers is the finding that by 34 - 27 percent voters say the cuts approved by Kasich and lawmakers will help, rather than hurt, the Ohio economy. Another 32 percent say the cuts won't affect the economy.

The photo ID voting proposal is opposed by many Democratic lawmakers, but Democratic voters support the idea 66 - 33 percent. Republican voters support the idea 93 - 6 percent and independents agree 77 - 21 percent.

Support for the proposed constitutional amendment to block a key provision of President Barack Obama's health care reform breaks on strictly partisan lines: Republicans support the amendment 78 - 17 percent while Democrats oppose it 71 - 20 percent. Independent voters, who may decide the outcome, support the amendment 49 - 44 percent.

From July 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,659 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              35%    66%    12%    34%    40%    31%    43%
Disapprove           50     19     76     48     48     53     42
DK/NA                15     14     12     18     13     17     14
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              38%    28%    37%    41%    37%    44%    27%
Disapprove           48     56     45     43     52     41     65
DK/NA                14     15     18     15     11     15      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              35      38      30      30
Disapprove           50      49      46      22
DK/NA                15      13      23      48
 
 
17. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        3%     6%     1%     3%     3%     3%     4%
Smwht satisfied      31     44     24     29     32     31     36
Smwht dissatisfied   32     30     36     32     31     33     30
Very dissatisfied    32     19     38     35     32     32     29
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      1      1      2
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very satisfied        3%     3%     4%     1%     2%     3%     3%
Smwht satisfied      38     27     30     34     31     32     20
Smwht dissatisfied   32     32     38     30     31     31     35
Very dissatisfied    26     36     23     34     34     34     41
DK/NA                 1      1      5      2      1      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19  Jun 29  Mar 21  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2010    2007    2011
 
Very satisfied        3       3       3       3       3       5       3
Smwht satisfied      31      30      26      28      37      49      26
Smwht dissatisfied   32      32      34      39      34      28      34
Very dissatisfied    32      35      36      28      25      16      36
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       -       1       1
 
 
20a. (SPLIT SAMPLE A) As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn    Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl     HsHld
 
Support              34%    59%    16%    35%    38%    31%    44%         28%
Oppose               52     31     69     51     52     52     43          65
DK/NA                14     10     14     14     10     17     13           7
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              34      38      41
Oppose               52      50      48
DK/NA                14      12      10
 
 
20b. (SPLIT SAMPLE B) As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn    Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl     HsHld
 
Support              34%    56%    21%    31%    40%    29%    42%         24%
Oppose               55     31     73     54     53     57     44          71
DK/NA                10     13      6     15      7     13     14           5
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              34      38      35
Oppose               55      51      54
DK/NA                10      11      11
 
 
21. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Kept                 32%    56%    14%    33%    37%    28%    42%
Repealed             56     35     75     52     55     56     47
DK/NA                12      9     11     15      8     16     11
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Kept                 34%    30%    34%    34%    34%    34%    24%
Repealed             57     56     58     57     55     48     71
DK/NA                 9     14      9     10     10     18      5
 
TREND: As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                     Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011
 
Kept                 32      36
Repealed             56      54
DK/NA                12      10
 
 
22. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  38%    56%    24%    39%    42%    35%    45%
No                   50     33     66     50     51     49     42
DK/NA                11     11     11     11      7     16     13
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  41%    38%    35%    38%    34%    43%    31%
No                   50     51     53     50     53     43     65
DK/NA                 9     11     12     12     13     14      4
 
TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Yes                  38      38      37
No                   50      52      55
DK/NA                11      10       8
 
 
23. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              36%    55%    24%    36%    40%    34%    45%
Oppose               56     37     69     57     54     57     46
DK/NA                 8      8      8      7      7      9      9
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              39%    33%    41%    42%    34%    41%    31%
Oppose               56     58     52     57     55     52     63
DK/NA                 6     10      7      1     11      8      6
 
 
TREND: The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              36      35      35
Oppose               56      58      58
DK/NA                 8       7       7
 
 
24. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              60%    76%    46%    61%    63%    57%    67%
Oppose               33     16     46     33     32     34     26
DK/NA                 7      8      8      6      5      9      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              60%    57%    61%    47%    61%    70%    53%
Oppose               35     34     32     47     31     22     40
DK/NA                 5      8      7      6      8      8      7
 
TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              60      59      66
Oppose               33      34      27
DK/NA                 7       7       8
 
 
25. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              36%    49%    26%    34%    40%    31%    40%
Oppose               58     43     70     60     56     61     52
DK/NA                 6      8      4      6      4      8      8
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              41%    34%    36%    37%    32%    33%    25%
Oppose               56     59     63     61     59     57     72
DK/NA                 3      7      1      2      9      9      3
 
 
TREND: The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (*wording change "bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees")
                     Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011*
 
Support              36      38
Oppose               58      54
DK/NA                 6       8
 
 
26. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              58%    71%    46%    62%    61%    55%    62%
Oppose               33     18     45     32     31     35     27
DK/NA                 9     11     10      6      8     10     11
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              60%    56%    58%    56%    58%    64%    51%
Oppose               34     33     37     37     32     30     40
DK/NA                 7     11      6      7     10      7      9
 
TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions?
                     Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011
 
Support              58      58
Oppose               33      34
DK/NA                 9       9
 
 
27. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              56%    70%    46%    59%    59%    53%    62%
Oppose               35     24     46     33     33     37     30
DK/NA                 9      6      9      9      7     10      8
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              59%    53%    51%    53%    57%    65%    49%
Oppose               34     35     45     41     36     28     44
DK/NA                 7     12      4      6      7      7      8
 
TREND: The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees?
                     Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011
 
Support              56      57
Oppose               35      35
DK/NA                 9       7
 
 
28. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              45%    55%    33%    48%    52%    37%    44%
Oppose               49     37     63     45     43     55     49
DK/NA                 6      8      4      7      5      8      7
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              45%    43%    44%    36%    53%    42%    39%
Oppose               50     49     51     56     42     52     57
DK/NA                 5      7      5      8      5      7      5
 
TREND: The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs?
                     Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011
 
Support              45      45
Oppose               49      50
DK/NA                 6       5
 
 
29. As you may know, the new federal health care law passed in 2010 will require nearly all Americans to have health insurance or else pay a fine. Do you support or oppose that requirement?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              29%    11%    48%    26%    29%    29%    19%
Oppose               67     86     46     70     67     66     77
DK/NA                 5      3      6      4      4      5      4
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              27%    32%    31%    24%    26%    26%    36%
Oppose               71     61     63     71     71     72     59
DK/NA                 2      7      6      5      3      2      4
 
 
30. As you may know, there is a proposed amendment to Ohio's constitution on the November ballot seeking to block the federal health care requirement for Ohio residents. Do you support or oppose an amendment to block the federal health care requirement for Ohio residents?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              48%    78%    20%    49%    52%    44%    62%
Oppose               45     17     71     44     44     47     33
DK/NA                 7      5      8      8      5     10      5
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              52%    41%    37%    58%    52%    55%    44%
Oppose               44     49     57     34     40     40     50
DK/NA                 3     10      6      8      8      5      6
 
 
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              32%    63%    10%    30%    38%    26%    42%
Disapprove           54     25     78     54     51     58     45
DK/NA                14     12     12     16     11     16     12
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              34%    27%    36%    30%    30%    43%    24%
Disapprove           50     59     49     53     61     44     69
DK/NA                15     14     16     17      9     13      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              32      35      31
Disapprove           54      53      51
DK/NA                14      12      18
 
 
32. How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are - very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very serious         60%    65%    56%    57%    58%    61%    61%
Smwht serious        34     29     37     38     34     34     33
Not too serious       3      3      4      2      5      2      3
Not at all serious    1      1      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      2      2      2
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very serious         57%    61%    62%    61%    63%    55%    57%
Smwht serious        39     32     34     28     31     38     34
Not too serious       2      3      3      5      4      4      6
Not at all serious    -      1      -      4      2      1      2
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: How serious do you think Ohio's budget problems are very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious?
                     Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19  Mar 21  Feb 01
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2007    2007
 
Very serious         60      64      62      69      37      43
Smwht serious        34      33      33      27      48      43
Not too serious       3       2       2       2       9       7
Not at all serious    1       -       -       -       1       1
DK/NA                 2       1       3       2       6       6
 
 
33. Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fair                 32%    58%    12%    34%    38%    26%    41%
Unfair               50     25     74     46     45     55     41
DK/NA                18     17     13     20     17     19     19
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fair                 39%    28%    36%    26%    29%    39%    29%
Unfair               45     54     51     50     53     43     62
DK/NA                17     19     12     23     18     18      9
 
 
34. What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Too far              34%    13%    53%    34%    31%    38%    24%
Not far enough       25     33     16     26     28     22     28
About right          30     44     20     28     32     28     35
DK/NA                11     10     11     11      9     12     12
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Too far              32%    39%    31%    33%    33%    29%    43%
Not far enough       24     22     23     29     34     27     22
About right          35     26     37     25     28     32     27
DK/NA                 9     13      9     13      6     12      8
 
 
35. Do you think that the spending cuts will help Ohio's economy, hurt Ohio's economy, or not make a difference?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Help                 34%    55%    19%    33%    38%    31%    42%
Hurt                 27     12     40     28     27     28     22
No difference        32     27     34     33     30     33     30
DK/NA                 7      6      7      6      5      8      6
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Help                 38%    31%    37%    34%    35%    37%    26%
Hurt                 23     30     29     20     26     28     36
No difference        30     32     27     38     34     30     34
DK/NA                 8      7      6      9      5      5      4
 
 
36. Which comes closer to your view regarding the budget: A) It is a good thing that taxes were not raised and the budget deficit was closed by just spending cuts. OR B) Taxes should have been raised so that there would have been fewer spending cuts.
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Good thing taxes
 not raised          63%    83%    46%    63%    61%    64%    73%
Taxes shld have
 been raised         28     10     44     29     31     25     16
DK/NA                 9      7     11      8      8     10     10
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Good thing taxes
 not raised          59%    62%    64%    67%    66%    66%    54%
Taxes shld have
 been raised         33     26     27     24     27     27     33
DK/NA                 8     12      9      9      7      7     13
 
 
37. As you may know, the state legislature is considering legislation that would require voters in Ohio to show photo identification in order to vote. Do you support or oppose such a law?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              78%    93%    66%    77%    77%    79%    85%
Oppose               20      6     33     21     22     19     14
DK/NA                 2      1      2      1      1      2      1
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              78%    78%    81%    75%    79%    80%    75%
Oppose               20     21     18     23     20     18     23
DK/NA                 3      1      1      2      1      2      2